The Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) has truly gone viral, taking the world by storm in just a few short months. From the closure of all major sports leagues to the mass closings of schools and mandatory work furloughs, the effects of the coronavirus are being felt by the infected and uninfected alike. Unsurprisingly, one of the biggest narratives is how the novel coronavirus is affecting the odds of the candidates running for President in 2020.
Fortunately, while most betting markets are suspended (because there’s no sports to bet on), election betting is still chugging along, and coronavirus has ironically breathed new life into the Democratic party in its bid to oust Republican incumbent President Donald Trump.
If you want to learn more about why this is happening – and if you want to bet a few dead Presidents on the election effects of COVID-19 – you can do that at any reputable offshore betting site.
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COVID-19 odds come and go on a daily basis at most offshore betting sites, especially in the form of props about league cancellations or other sporting delays. However, you can also find election odds and political props that have to do specifically with coronavirus, and we’ve included the current ones here (via Bovada).
Which Party Will Win The 2020 Presidential Election?
Which Party Will Win The Popular Vote?
US Senate Control
Voter Turnout in the U.S Presidential Election
Voter Turnout in the U.S. Presidential Election
Democratic Party Election Sweep
House Seats Won by Democrats
Majority Control of the U.S. Senate
U.S. Senate & House of Representatives
Will Trump lose every state he lost in 2016
Will Trump win every state he won in 2016
Winner of popular vote wins electoral college
Will Donald and Melania Trump Be Divorced By 2021?
Who will die first?
There are several ways that the Wuhan coronavirus can impact elections, and by extension, impact election odds. The main ways are listed below, and if you’ve been tracking the political betting boards lately, you can see for yourself how the news and hype have contributed to the drop in Donald Trump’s re-election odds.
Even though the coronavirus map currently shows that most cases are in Democratic strongholds, that is likely to change over time and shouldn’t necessarily be a liability to the DNC candidate come November. Viruses, after all, have no political affiliation.
The biggest way that the coronavirus promises to impact the Presidential election in November is by keeping the stock market depressed. Over the last few weeks, panic selloffs and FED rate manipulations have caused the NYSE and NASDAQ to tank at historic rates, wiping out Trump’s biggest re-election strength.
Just a few months ago, the POTUS was talking up the unprecedented health of the stock market, but today, activity on Wall Street is mirroring that of the Great Recession in 2008. While there is plenty of time for the market to correct (buy the dip!), in this moment, Trump’s odds – and the Republican party’s odds – are at their lowest point in four years, with Democrats favored to win the White House. So if you think Trump will persevere in November, act now to get the best possible payout!
Medicare for All (popularly “M4A”) is a major Democratic platform, and the alleged (albeit unproven) lack of hospital beds for an exponential COVID-19 outbreak is going to be fodder for the candidates in their push for government-run healthcare. A medical scare of this sort invariably causes a mass of people to look to the government for help, and many middle-of-the-road voters may suddenly find socialized healthcare appealing.
On the other hand, this can also be tempered by the fact that the worst coronavirus outbreaks globally are occurring in “first world” countries with socialized medical care. Italy in particular is a focal point, as the nation is flirting with “death panels” to decide which coronavirus victims will get treatment and which will not.
Every nation on earth has issued a coronavirus travel advisory, as the spread of the disease is slowed by limiting the volume of people traveling country to country. While the US has not yet issued total coronavirus travel restrictions, there are travel bans in effect. This is one of the ways that the issue plays into Trump’s anti-globalist and “Build the Wall” narratives, and it helps to sell the idea of closed borders to those on the fence.
However, not all politicians agree with the need for these border- and travel-related preventative measures. In their most recent debate, both Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders said that they would not close the border over the threat of COVID-19.
Coronavirus has the potential to bring about substantial change in future elections, and these would invariably change the dynamics of the betting odds for such.
One way is immediate: As more and more elderly people are quarantined or otherwise afraid to go outside the home, they may abstain from voting while younger Americans head to the polls. This, for example, could benefit Bernie Sanders in the primaries, as he has a larger youth base than Joe Biden. In the general election, it could also hurt Donald Trump’s chances, as he polls much better with American citizens aged 65 and up.
As for future elections, COVID-19 will absolutely lead to calls for all states to have mail-in balloting or online voting. This would increase overall participation and lead to a tremendous change in how campaigns are conducted. If the nation moves to Internet-based voting going forward, election betting will have to adjust to that brave new world.
Trump is taking a beating over COVID-19 to a degree that’s been far more damaging than any of the “scandals” that have been daily headlines throughout his presidency. With the stock market in the toilet and the mainstream media blaming him for the spread of the virus (a dubious claim at best), Trump has been forced to change his initial response from preaching calm and order to one that’s installing lockdowns and mandating unprecedented relief spending.
The coronavirus Trump connection, fair or not, could be what decides his chances to win a second term in November. It seems like only a matter of time before the Wuhan coronavirus is rebranded to the Trump Coronavirus. The media has already falsely portrayed Trump as calling the virus a hoax, which will galvanize his base but could potentially move people from the center to the left.
Biden committed yet another gaffe at the most recent Democratic debate by immediately coughing into his hand in direct contravention of medical guidelines to cough into your elbow or shirt.
However, that is among the most innocuous of his many faux pas, and his policy on coronavirus seems to be to pull out all the stops – including deploying the military, National Guard, and more. He said that Italy’s single-payer medical system failed in its response to COVID-19, but it’s clear he favors more government control over health care administration due to the crisis. And naturally, Biden blames Trump for the coronavirus panic:
“Unfortunately, this virus laid bare the severe shortcomings of the current administration. Public fears are being compounded by a pervasive lack of trust in this president. … [The Trump administration] has left us woefully unprepared for the exact crisis we now face.”
Democratic Socialist Bernie Sanders, as expected, used the coronavirus to push Medicare for All, which has been one of his most persistent platforms. He claimed that the current medical system in America is unequipped to handle a crisis of this magnitude, but he did not mention the failings of socialized medicine to contain coronavirus in other nations that have healthcare institutions more in line with his vision for America.
“The crisis we face from the coronavirus is on a scale of a major war, and we must act accordingly. The number of casualties may actually be even higher than what the armed forces experienced in World War II. … If there ever was a time in the modern history of our country when we are in this together, this is that moment. We need to worry about those who are already sick, we need to worry about working families with children, people with disabilities, the homeless and all those who are vulnerable.”
While the coronavirus death toll has not been statistically relevant in and of itself, the rate of death among known cases currently sits at about three percent. However, as coronavirus news spreads and prevention techniques are rolled out worldwide, that number is expected to drop substantially.
Coronavirus deaths – while unsettling – occur mainly in immunocompromised individuals and the elderly, with healthy youths being a risk mostly as carriers who might infect the aforementioned.
To stay on top of the current coronavirus spread and best practices to keep yourself and your family safe, you can visit the CDC Coronavirus index page and keep tabs on the disease at the Johns Hopkins coronavirus tracker.
ICoronavirus election delays are a distinct possibility, especially given the nature of the virus’ transmission (see below). However, given that the 2020 Presidential election is being held in November, it is too early to tell if COVID-19 will cause a delay. You can, of course, bet on this contingency right now!
One of the most pressing issues is how coronavirus is transmitted. Coronavirus is spread via droplets in the air (i.e. coughs and sneezes) and can stay on surfaces for hours or days depending on conditions. This is why most sports leagues have suspended play for the time being, and it’s why the latest Democratic debate had nobody in the audience. “Social distancing” is the order of the day, and that will certainly have ramifications for the remaining primary elections and, consequently, the election odds you’ll see at your favorite online betting sites.
Almost certainly, COVID-19 originated in China. But even though the coronavirus China link is well-established, the country has recently floated the idea that the American military complex brought the disease to their shores. Of course, this has been debunked by most virologists, and the consensus is that the virus originated in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, with “official” identification occurring in December 2019.
When it comes to what caused the coronavirus, there is a lot of controversy, and several competing theories exist. One holds that COVID-19 came from an animal market in Wuhan, possibly spread by dogs or bats. Another suggests that the virus was made in a lab and released into the wild either accidentally or intentionally. Then again, given that there are many strains of coronavirus in existence, this could also be an organic evolution that had been going undetected for some time before finally being recognized as a new coronavirus mutation.
According to most COVID-19 tracking resources, the virus is confirmed to be present in most US states, though it’s concentrated in large metropolitan centers like Seattle, NYC, and Boston. That said, new coronavirus USA cases are being reported every day. The main outbreak in the US started at a Seattle nursing home, as the elderly are most susceptible to both infection and death from the illness. That said, it’s a good bet that the coronavirus is present in every state, whether or not cases have been confirmed, as there is a bottleneck in testing at this time.
COVID-19 is worldwide, with most countries in possession of testing infrastructure confirming its presence. There are unlikely many inhabited places on earth that don’t have coronavirus present in the ecosystem, and even isolated nations like North Korea have allegedly seen the disease inside their borders.
The symptoms of coronavirus mirror the flu, with the distinctive marker being extreme shortness of breath and rapid fever. Over 80% of those infected never show symptoms, and a large majority of those with the virus present as standard flu patients. If you experience flu-like symptoms with the presence of extreme breathing difficulty, you should seek immediate medical attention. Meanwhile, if you show signs of any sort of fever or respiratory infection, you should self-quarantine for 14 days.
Yes, it is, but likely not to the degree advertised. Currently, medical experts claim coronavirus to be “10 times more deadly” than the typical seasonal flu, but the WHO admits that these numbers are based only on known cases and are weighted heavily in densely populated areas that lack modern sanitation and have lots of elderly people living in close proximity to one another. The WHO believes the COVID-19 death rate will drop off significantly in time.
While there is currently no coronavirus cure, drug companies are hard at work developing vaccines for the disease. Just as there is no cure for the common cold or the flu, there are recommended sanitation practices to be aware of, like washing your hands and wiping down high-traffic surfaces in the home. Good hygiene is one of the most important tools to combat coronavirus, and that will likely remain the case going forward.