The 2022 House of Representatives election will be held on Tuesday, November 8, 2022, and the seats for all 435 Congressional Districts of all 50 states (including US territories and the nation’s capital, the District of Columbia) will be up for grabs. Elected members will serve in the 118th US Congress, and you could find betting lines on several of the most closely contested races.
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There are no federal laws prohibiting US residents from placing wagers on political or Presidential betting lines offered through legitimately licensed offshore sportsbooks. However, residents in Washington state are prohibited from betting on politics online by their state’s gambling laws. WA has laws on the books making it a crime to gambling over the Internet. Though not enforced, the laws are in place nonetheless, and we do not recommend breaking local laws.
In the grand scope, no party stays in power forever. As elections cycle, so too do parties fall into and out of favor with voters in a cyclic fashion. However, right now, the Democrats control the US House of Representatives, and it is unlikely that the Dems will lose control of the House in 2022.
Right now, Democrats seem to be performing better in generic polls used to test the voting waters. Also, President Biden’s approval ratings remain moderate, meaning there is a decent likelihood of people not voting for Republicans in the upcoming midterm Congressional elections.
Still, in order to retake the US House, the GOP would have to flip several seats to gain the lower chamber majority. While this is doable, it remains up to bettors to determine whether or not that’s a wager they’re willing to take. Most offshore sportsbooks offered action on US House control as the 2020 election neared, and we expect that to happen again in 2022.
All 435 seats in the US House will be contested in 2022, so all sitting Representatives could potentially be at risk. However, given the incumbents’ victory rate is well over 90 percent in the House, it is difficult to identify those who may be on the chopping block.
Instead, oddsmakers place their focus on those Reps who will probably win but who have been especially polarizing in the Trump years, as their margins of victory would play a big part in identifying their constituents’ opposition or approval of Joe Biden.
Of the members of the “Squad” (i.e. the most radical Progressive Democrats in the House), only one has the potential to eventually lose their seat – Minnesota’s Ilhan Omar. Omar has been involved in a number of scandals, however, she won her reelection easily, taking 64.6% of the vote in 2020.
Other prominent US House members up for re-election in 2022 include:
While all of these candidates’ posts are likely safe, the odds are intriguing because of each member’s prominence on a national scale. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is beloved by the media for her constant attacks of Donald Trump, and Adam Schiff is similarly known for his Trump antagonism and various procedural abuses.
Dan Crenshaw of Texas is perhaps the biggest rising star in the House outside of AOC, and he has boosted his profile considerably during the coronavirus outbreak. Crenshaw seems destined for the Senate, a governorship, and/or a future Presidential run himself, and a big win in the general has brought his potential into more focus.
Finally, Frank Pallone was on our list simply because he was instrumental in New Jersey’s successful challenge of PASPA and has been a staunch pro-betting advocate, so we’d like to see his efforts rewarded in a landslide victory in November od 2022. He also retracted his GAME Act, which would give federal oversight to the industry, which is a move we agree with. State’s Rights, y’all!
Some future seats will be difficult to flip because of the sheer lack of competition. Some states have Republican incumbents that are in jeopardy in 2022 because certain Democrats have raised enough funds to challenge them on the ever-important airwaves.
Other Republicans are considered safe because there are no feasible Democratic challengers. And, of course, the reverse is also true. Still, fundraising isn’t everything, as the 2016 Presidential election showed, where Hillary Clinton outspent Donald Trump nearly 2-to-1 and still lost.
If the Republicans want to come out of the 2022 House of Representative elections in charge of the lower chamber, they needed to go on the offensive. They’ll have to flip seats in pro-Biden districts to begin snatching away any available chances from the Democrats. The Republicans have greater odds with some of the districts because even though an incumbent may be set to retire, some red states are so pro-Republican they will not likely flip to Democratic control.
Nevertheless, incumbent re-election in the US House is well over 90%, so it’s a big ask for the GOP to retake the House in the single 2022 election cycle.
These odds are currently off the boards, but here’s how they looked going into the November 3 general election:
Ohio 11 – Democrat Nominee
According to most political analysts, there were about two dozen “toss-up” seats in the 2020 US House elections. Eighteen of these seats were held by Democrats, while five were held by Republicans, and one was held by an Independent.
|New Jersey||Democratic||Kim (NJ-03)|
|New Mexico||Democratic||Torres Small (NM-02)|
|New York||Democratic||Rose (NY-11)|
|New York||Democratic||Delgado (NY-19)|
|New York||Democratic||Brindisi (NY-22)|
|South Carolina||Democratic||Cunningham (SC-01)|