2020 House Of Representatives Election Odds

2020 House Of Representatives Election Odds

2020 House Of Representatives Election Odds

2020 House Election Update (11/4): As of November 4, it appears that the Democrats will keep control of the US House of Representatives. A majority of 218 seats are needed to maintain that control, and the current results show that the Democrats are leading 193-185. The results for 57 seats remain to be formally announced. 

The 2020 House of representatives election were held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, and the seats for all 435 Congressional Districts of all 50 states (including US territories and the nation’s capital, the District of Columbia) were up for grabs. Elected members will serve in the 117th US Congress, and you could find betting lines on several of the most closely contested races.

Licensed Online Sportsbooks Offering Betting Odds On The 2020 House Elections

The following sportsbooks provided comprehensive coverage, betting lines, and odds for the 2018 Midterm Elections, and they continued that trend for 2020. They offered future odds on the 2020 Presidential Election, as well.

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Bovada Sportsbook Logo50% Max $2505 Star RatingUSA FriendlyVisit SiteReview
Betonline Sportsbook Logo50% Max $1,0004 Star RatingUSA FriendlyVisit SiteReview
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US House Betting Odds 2020

These odds are currently off the boards, but here’s how they looked going into the November 3 general election:

Via Bovada

US House Of Representatives Control (117th Congress)*

  • Democrats -300
  • Republicans +200

House And Senate Balance Of Power (117th Congress)*

  • Democratic House, Democratic Senate +125
  • Democratic House, Republican Senate +175
  • Republican House, Republican Senate +500
  • Republican House, Democratic Senate +6600

*Odds from Nov. 1st, 2020

Can I Legally Bet On The 2020 House Of Representatives Elections?

There are no federal laws prohibiting US residents from placing wagers on political betting lines offered through legitimately licensed offshore sportsbooks.  However, residents in Washington State and Connecticut State are prohibited from betting on politics online by their state’s gambling laws. Both states have laws on the books making it a crime to gambling over the Internet. Though not enforced, the laws are in place nonetheless, and we do not recommend breaking local laws.

Can Democratic Control Of Congress Last?

In the grand scope, no party stays in power forever. As elections cycle, so too do parties fall into and out of favor with voters in a cyclic fashion. However, right now, the Democrats control the US House of Representatives, 234-197 over Republicans. There is also one Independent, and there are three vacancies. It is unlikely that the Dems will lose control of the House in 2020, and you can follow along as the 2020 November general election nears by visiting our Democratic odds page and the Republican odds page.

Advantage In Democrats’ Favor

Right now, Democrats seem to be performing better in generic polls used to test the voting waters. Also, President Trump’s approval ratings remain somewhat low (especially due to the current Wuhan coronavirus pandemic), meaning there is a decent likelihood of people not voting for Republicans in the upcoming 2020 election.

Still, in order to retake the US House, the GOP would have to flip only 18 seats to gain the lower chamber majority. While this is doable, it remains up to to bettors to determine whether or not that’s a wager they’re willing to take. Most offshore sportsbooks offered action on US House control as the 2020 election neared.

Key Democratic Representatives Up For Re-Election In 2020

All 435 seats in the US house were up for grabs in 2020, so everyone could potentially be at risk. However, given the incumbents’ victory rate is well over 90 percent in the House, it is difficult to identify those who may be on the chopping block.

Instead, we were most interested in those Reps who will probably win but who have been especially polarizing in the Trump years, as their margins of victory would play a big part in identifying their constituents’ opposition or approval of Donald Trump.

“The Squad” 

Of the members of the so-called “Squad” (i.e. the most radical Progressive Democrats in the House), only one seemed truly at risk: Minnesota’s Ilhan Omar. Omar is involved in a number of scandals, including a fake marriage to her brother for the purposes of immigration fraud as well as an affair with her married campaign strategist, Tim Mynett. However, Omar won reelection easily, taking 64.6% of the vote as MN went to Democrat Joe Biden.

Minnesota itself was a major swing state, as Trump lost it by less than two points in 2016. If the state shifted red, Omar could have been on the chopping block. Other prominent US House members up for re-election include:

  • Nancy Pelosi (D) – California – Winner
  • Adam Schiff (D) – California – Winner
  • Justin Amash (I) – Michigan – N/A
  • Frank Pallone (D) – New Jersey – Winner
  • Jerry Nadler (D) – New York – Winner
  • Dan Crenshaw (R) – Texas – Winner

While all of these candidates’ posts were likely safe, they were intriguing. Pelosi, at 80 years old and holding the post of Speaker of the House, is beloved by the media for her constant attacks of Donald Trump, including spearheading his 2019-2020 impeachment. “Pencil Neck” Schiff is similarly known for his Trump antagonism and various procedural abuses, as is Jerry Nadler.

Justin Amash is an interesting case, as we still don’t know if he’s actually running for re-election. He hinted that he may retire to run for President in 2020 as a Libertarian candidate, but that didn’t come to fruition.

Meanwhile, Dan Crenshaw of Texas is perhaps the biggest rising star in the House outside of AOC, and he has boosted his profile considerably during the coronavirus outbreak. Crenshaw seems destined for the Senate, a governorship, and/or a future Presidential run himself, and a big win in the general has brought his potential into more focus (despite the fact that he only has one eye).

Finally, Frank Pallone was on our list simply because he was instrumental in New Jersey’s successful challenge of PASPA and has been a staunch pro-betting advocate, so we’d like to see his efforts rewarded in a landslide victory in November (which happened!). He also retracted his GAME Act, which would give federal oversight to the industry, which is a move we agree with. State’s Rights, y’all!

Fundraising Provides The X Factor

Some future seats will be difficult to flip because of the sheer lack of competition. Some states had Republican incumbents that were in jeopardy in 2020 because certain Democrats raised enough funds to challenge them on the ever-important airwaves. Other Republicans were safe because there were no feasible Democratic challengers. And, of course, the reverse is also true. Still, fundraising isn’t everything, as the 2016 Presidential election showed, where Hillary Clinton outspent Donald Trump nearly 2-to-1 and still lost.

Best Chance For Republicans To Gain Control And Beat The Odds

If the Republicans want to come out of the 2020 House of Representative elections in charge of the lower chamber, they needed to go on the offensive. They’ll have to flip seats in pro-Trump districts to begin snatching away any available chances from the Democrats. The Republicans have greater odds with some of the districts because even though an incumbent may be set to retire, some red states are so pro-Republican they will not likely flip to Democratic control.

Nevertheless, incumbent re-election in the US House is well over 90%, so it’s a big ask for the GOP to retake the House in the single 2020 election cycle. As of Nov. 4, it looks like they may increase their seats but still occupy minority status in the House.

Toss-Up States In The 2020 US House Of Representatives Election

According to most political analysts, there were about two dozen “toss-up” seats in the 2020 US House elections. Eighteen of these seats are held by Democrats, while five are held by Republicans, and one is held by an Independent.

Seats To Watch In 2020 US House Elections

StatePartyIncumbent
GeorgiaDemocraticMcBath (GA-06)
IowaDemocraticFinkenauer (IA-01)
IowaDemocraticOPEN (IA-02)
IowaDemocraticAxne (IA-03)
IllinoisDemocraticUnderwood (IL-14)
MaineDemocraticGolden (ME-02)
MichiganDemocraticSlotkin (MI-08)
MinnesotaDemocraticPeterson (MN-07)
New JerseyDemocraticKim (NJ-03)
New MexicoDemocraticTorres Small (NM-02)
New YorkDemocraticRose (NY-11)
New YorkDemocraticDelgado (NY-19)
New YorkDemocraticBrindisi (NY-22)
OklahomaDemocraticHorn (OK-05)
South CarolinaDemocraticCunningham (SC-01)
UtahDemocraticMcAdams (UT-04)
VirginiaDemocraticLuria (VA-02)
VirginiaDemocraticSpanberger (VA-07)
GeorgiaRepublicanOPEN (GA-07)
IllinoisRepublicanDavis (IL-13)
PennsylvaniaRepublicanPerry (PA-10)
TexasRepublicanOPEN (TX-22)
TexasRepublicanOPEN (TX-24)
MichiganIndependentAmash (MI-03)