The 2020 House of representatives election will occur on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, and the seats for all 435 Congressional Districts of all 50 states (including US territories and the nation’s capital, the District of Columbia) will be up for grabs. Elected members will serve in the 117th US Congress, and while it is not yet known who will challenge the current incumbents, we will be sure to update this page with that information as the election draws nearer.
The following sportsbooks provided comprehensive coverage, betting lines, and odds for the 2018 Midterm Elections, and they’ll continue that trend for 2020. They also offer future odds on the 2020 Presidential Election, as well.
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US House Of Representatives Control (117th Congress)
House And Senate Balance Of Power (117th Congress)
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In the grand scope, no party stays in power forever. As elections cycle, so too do parties fall into and out of favor with voters in a cyclic fashion. However, right now, the Democrats control the US House of Representatives, 234-197 over Republicans. There is also one Independent, and there are three vacancies. It is unlikely that the Dems will lose control of the House in 2020, and you can follow along as the 2020 November general election nears by visiting our Democratic odds page and the Republican odds page.
Right now, Democrats seem to be performing better in generic polls used to test the voting waters. Also, President Trump’s approval ratings remain somewhat low (especially due to the current Wuhan coronavirus pandemic), meaning there is a decent likelihood of people not voting for Republicans in the upcoming 2020 election.
Still, in order to retake the US House, the GOP would have to flip only 18 seats to gain the lower chamber majority. While this is doable, it remains up to to bettors to determine whether or not that’s a wager they’re willing to take. Most offshore sportsbooks will offer action on US House control as the 2020 election nears.
All 435 seats in the US house are up for grabs in 2020, so everyone could potentially be at risk. However, given the incumbents’ victory rate is well over 90 percent in the House, it is difficult to identify those who may be on the chopping block. Instead, we’re interested in those Reps who will probably win but who have been especially polarizing in the Trump years, as their margins of victory will play a big part in identifying their constituents’ opposition or approval of Donald Trump.
Of the members of the so-called “Squad” (i.e. the most radical Progressive Democrats in the House), only one seems truly at risk: Minnesota’s Ilhan Omar. Omar is involved in a number of scandals, including a fake marriage to her brother for the purposes of immigration fraud as well as an affair with her married campaign strategist, Tim Mynett.
Minnesota itself is a major swing state, as Trump lost it by less than two points in 2016. If the state shifts red, Omar could be on the chopping block. Other prominent US House members up for re-election include:
While all of these candidates’ posts are likely safe, they are intriguing. Pelosi, at 80 years old and holding the post of Speaker of the House, is beloved by the media for her constant attacks of Donald Trump, including spearheading his 2019-2020 impeachment. “Pencil Neck” Schiff is similarly known for his Trump antagonism and various procedural abuses, as is Jerry Nadler.
Justin Amash is an interesting case, as we still don’t know if he’s actually running for re-election. He has hinted that he may retire to run for President this year as a Libertarian candidate, but no final decision has been made.
Meanwhile, Dan Crenshaw of Texas is perhaps the biggest rising star in the House outside of AOC, and he has boosted his profile considerably during the coronavirus outbreak. Crenshaw seems destined for the Senate, a governorship, and/or a future Presidential run himself, and a big win in the general will bring his potential into more focus (despite the fact that he only has one eye).
Finally, Frank Pallone is on our list simply because he was instrumental in New Jersey’s successful challenge of PASPA and has been a staunch pro-betting advocate, so we’d like to see his efforts rewarded in a landslide victory in November. He also retracted his GAME Act, which would give federal oversight to the industry, which is a move we agree with. State’s Rights, y’all!
Some future seats will be difficult to flip because of the sheer lack of competition. Some states have Republican incumbents that are now in jeopardy because certain Democrats raised enough funds to challenge them on the ever-important airwaves. Other Republicans are safe because there are no feasible Democratic challengers at this point. And, of course, the reverse is also true. Still, fundraising isn’t everything, as the 2016 Presidential election showed, where Hillary Clinton outspent Donald Trump nearly 2-to-1 and still lost.
If the Republicans want to come out of the 2020 House of Representative elections in charge of the lower chamber, they will need to go on the offensive. They’ll have to flip seats in pro-Trump districts to begin snatching away any available chances from the Democrats. The Republicans have greater odds with some of the districts because even though the incumbent is set to retire, some red states are so pro-Republican they will not likely flip to Democratic control.
Nevertheless, incumbent re-election in the US House is well over 90%, so it’s a big ask for the GOP to retake the House in the single 2020 election cycle.
According to most political analysts, there are about two dozen “toss-up” seats in the 2020 US House elections. Eighteen of these seats are currently held by Democrats, while five are held by Republicans and one is held by an Independent.
|New Jersey||Democratic||Kim (NJ-03)|
|New Mexico||Democratic||Torres Small (NM-02)|
|New York||Democratic||Rose (NY-11)|
|New York||Democratic||Delgado (NY-19)|
|New York||Democratic||Brindisi (NY-22)|
|South Carolina||Democratic||Cunningham (SC-01)|