Odds For 2022 Midterm Elections

November 8, 2022, is the date all registered voters from around the United States will decide which candidates will be elected to public office at the congressional, state, and local levels during the 2022 midterm elections. There is a possibility for numerous amendments to be up for vote on individual state ballots, including multiple gambling ballot measures. Early voting will be well underway both at physical locations and by mail across the US.

Democrats were vying for control of Congress in an effort to derail Trump’s movement as POTUS in 2018, and in 2022, we may see a similar political climate if yet another Republican becomes President or Trump is re-elected. Republicans were desperately trying to maintain control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate in the 2018 Midterms, losing the former but keeping the latter.

Political polls, betting odds, and commentators all had predictions on what to expect in the midterm election results for 2018. However, if there was anything to learn from 2016, it was to expect the unexpected, which may explain the surge of interest in political wagering. Sportsbooks were offering odds on a whopping 40+ betting lines for that year’s general election, covering everything from majority outcomes in the U.S. House of Representatives and U.S. Senate along with individual races in both chambers as well as many key races for Governor in several states. Expect more of the same in the 2022 midterms.

Midterm 2018 Election Results

The Democrats did not receive the huge blue wave they expected in 2018, but the party was successful in taking the House back from Republican control. This significant change meant the Democrats would have a seat at the table where the current POTUS would not be able to pass laws without the Democratic vote. However, this election had several implications across the US, and several key races which we list were being watched closely.

Kentucky 6th Congressional District – Incumbent Andy Barr (R) won against challenger Amy McGrath (D)

Georgia Governorship – Brain Kemp (R) won against challenger Stacey Abrams (D)

Texas Senate – Incumbent Ted Cruz (R) won against challenger Beto O’Rouke (D)

North Dakota Senate – Kevin Cramer (R) won against incumbent Keidi Heitkamp (D)

Missouri Senate – John Hawley (R) won against incumbent Claire McCaskill (D)

Indiana Senate – Mike Braun (R) won against incumbent Joe Donnelly (D)

Analyzing The Odds For The 2022 Midterms

It is always interesting to compare the polls to the odds on political betting lines. With the possibility of the 2022 midterm elections being very volatile, we believe it is key to keep track of betting odds. Any time you want to check the odds in real time, you can view Bovada’s political betting odds.

2020 Majority in Congress Betting Odds

The congressional majority odds seem to mimic the current polling data from RCP, with the Democrats keeping the House and Republicans keeping the Senate in 2020. The odds on which party will dominate the Senate and House have yet to be announced at most offshore sportsbooks, but as the 2020 general election nears, odds will be updated and posted here.

2020 US House of Representatives Election – Majority Outcome

• Democratic Majority TBA
• Republican Majority TBA
• No Overall Majority TBA

Current RCP House Prediction

• Democrats: TBA
• Republicans: TBA
• Toss Up: TBA

2020 US Senate Election – Majority Outcome

• Republican Majority TBA
• Democratic Majority TBA
• No Overall Majority TBA

Current RCP Senate Prediction

• Republicans: TBA
• Democrats: TBA
• Toss Up: TBA

Who will be the next Speaker of the House of Representatives?

• Nancy Pelosi TBA
• Jim Jordan TBA
• Kevin McCarthy TBA
• Steve Scalise TBA
• James Clyburn TBA
• Field TBA

Our Breakdown

• Pelosi is the favorite now since she’ll resume her role as speaker should the Dems retain the House. However, if the GOP wins, then McCarthy will likely get the job.

2022 Midterms Election – Exact Outcome

• Democratic House / GOP Senate TBA
• GOP House / GOP Senate TBA
• Democratic House / Democratic Senate TBA
• GOP House / Democratic Senate TBA

Our Breakdown

• Unfortunately, it’s too early to tell which way the Senate and House elections will go in the 2022 midterms. A whole lot can change in just a couple of years, politically speaking.

2020 US Senate Election – Exact Republican Senate Seats After Midterms

• 60 Or More TBA
• 59 TBA
• 58 TBA
• 57 TBA
• 56 TBA
• 55 TBA
• 54 TBA
• 53 TBA
• 52 TBA
• 51 TBA
• 50 TBA
• 49 Or Less TBA

Current RCP Senate Prediction – No Toss Ups

• Republicans: TBA
• Democrats: TBA
• Net Gain: TBA

2019-2020 Betting Odds on Governor Races

The odds for each race for governor in most elections is nearly identical to that of RCP and local polling data, but most of the races in 2018 were decided under a double-digit difference. Right now, it is too early to provide odds for the 2019-2020 Gubernatorial races, but with 14 states holding governor races this cycle, this information will be updated soon.

2020 Betting Odds on US Senate Races

Much like the gubernatorial races, the polling on U.S. Senate races is very similar to the odds at the most premium sportsbooks. Where the two races differ is when looking at the polling, since some Senate races have a huge point advantage in the polls while others have a candidate’s lead at less than a point, giving good value to both candidates as a result. In the 2020 Election, 35 Senate seats will be up for grabs, and we will post odds when they arrive here.

2020 Betting Odds on US House Races

The 2020 House race will be a wild one as all 435 U.S. House seats will be up for grabs during the 2020 general election. Odds will be updated as we near November 2020.