2018 Midterm Election Betting Odds
As of Tuesday, November 6, 2018, registered voters from around the United States have decided which candidates would be elected to public office at the congressional, state, and local levels during the 2018 Midterm Elections. There were also numerous amendments up for vote on individual state ballots, including multiple gambling ballot measures. Early voting was well underway both at physical locations and by mail across the US.
Democrats were vying for control of Congress in an effort to derail Trump’s movement as POTUS. Republicans were desperately trying to maintain control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Political polls, betting odds, and commentators all had predictions on what to expect in the Midterm Election results for 2018. However, if there was anything to learn from 2016, it was to expect the unexpected, which may explain the surge of interest in political wagering
Sportsbooks were offering odds on a whopping 40 betting lines for this general election, covering everything from majority outcomes in the U.S. House of Representatives and U.S. Senate along with individual races in both and many key races for Governor in several states as well.
Midterm 2018 Election Results
The Democrats did not receive the huge blue wave they expected but the party was successful in taking the house. This significant change means the Democrats will have a seat at the table where current POTUS cannot pass laws without the Democratic vote which may also have implications of re-opening investigation scandals against the President and his administration. However, this election had several implications across the US and several key races which we list were being watched closely.
Key Races:
Kentucky 6th Congressional District – Incumbent Andy Barr (R) won against challenger Amy McGrath (D)
Georgia Governorship – Brain Kemp (R) won against challenger Stacey Abrams (D)
Texas Senate – Incumbent Ted Cruz (R) won against challenger Beto O’Rouke (D)
North Dakota Senate – Kevin Cramer (R) won against incumbent Keidi Heitkamp (D)
Missouri Senate – John Hawley (R) won against incumbent Claire McCaskill (D)
Indiana Senate – Mike Braun (R) won against incumbent Joe Donnelly (D)
Analyzing The Odds For The 2018 Midterms
It is always interesting to compare the odds to the polls in political betting lines. With the 2018 midterm elections being very volatile for this election season, we thought we would see how the odds line up with polling data from RealClearPolitics.com. These figures were in place at the time of this writing but will likely fluctuate somewhat between now and November 6th. Anytime you want to check the odds in real time you can view Bovada’s political betting odds.
2018 Majority in Congress Betting Odds
The congressional majority odds seem to mimic the current polling data from RCP with the Democrats taking back the House and Republicans keeping the Senate.
And speaking of the Senate, RealClearPolitics.com predicts the Republicans will gain one seat following the election, giving them a total of 52. However, the odds currently have 53 and 51 seats as the favorite.
2018 US House of Representatives Election – Majority Outcome
- Democratic Majority -300
- Republican Majority +200
- No Overall Majority +10000
Current RCP House Prediction
- Democrats: 202
- Republicans: 194
- Toss Up: 39
2018 US Senate Election – Majority Outcome
- Republican Majority -450
- Democratic Majority +800
- No Overall Majority +500
Current RCP Senate Prediction
- Republicans: 50
- Democrats: 43
- Toss Up: 7
Who will be the next Speaker of the House of Representatives?
- Nancy Pelosi -200
- Jim Jordan +650
- Kevin McCarthy +275
- Steve Scalise +2000
- James Clyburn +5000
- Field +500
Our Breakdown
- Pelosi is the favorite now since she’ll resume her role as speaker should the Dems win the House. However, if the GOP wins, then McCarthy will likely get the job after getting approval from Trump at Paul Ryan’s retirement dinner.
2018 Midterms Election – Exact Outcome
- Democratic House / GOP Senate -195
- GOP House / GOP Senate +200
- Democratic House / Democratic Senate +850
- GOP House / Democratic Senate +10000
Our Breakdown
- While it’s looking likely that the Dems will gain control the House and the GOP will keep the Senate, sharp money has recently come in on the GOP keeping both.
2018 US Senate Election – Exact Republican Senate Seats After Midterms
- 60 Or More +1000
- 59 +2500
- 58 +1500
- 57 +1000
- 56 +900
- 55 +750
- 54 +550
- 53 +550
- 52 +500
- 51 +450
- 50 +700
- 49 Or Less +800
Current RCP Senate Prediction – No Toss Ups
- Republicans: 52
- Democrats: 48
- Net Gain: Republicans +1 Seat
2018 Betting Odds on Governor Races
The odds for each race for governor this election is nearly identical to that of RCP and local polling data, but most of the races are under a double-digit advantage.
However, some states are too close to predict right now and value can be found among many of the underdogs who fall within the margin of error, which is typically 3-4 points when conducting a poll.
Click Here For Betting Odds And Polling Data On 2018 Gubernatorial Races
2018 US Gubernatorial Election Winner – Alaska
- Mike Dunleavy (R) -280
- Mark Begich (D) +220
Current RCP Alaska Governor Average Poll
- Toss-Up:
- Local polling data: Mike Dunleavy (R) favored by 1.0 point
2018 US Gubernatorial Election Winner – Colorado
- Jared Polis (D) -1600
- Walker Stapleton (R) +750
Current RCP Colorado Governor Average Poll
- Jared Polis (D) favored by 6.5 points
2018 US Gubernatorial Election Winner – Illinois
- JB Pritzker (D) -1200
- Bruce Rauner (R) +650
Current RCP Illinois Governor Average Poll
- JB Pritzker (D) favored by 15.7 points
2018 US Gubernatorial Election Winner – Iowa
- Fred Hubbell (D) -150
- Kim Reynolds (R) +120
Current RCP Iowa Governor Average Poll
- Toss Up
- Local Polling data: Fred Hubbell (D) favored by 0.7 points
2018 US Gubernatorial Election Winner – Kansas
- Kris Kobach (R) -130
- Laura Kelly (D) EVEN
Current RCP Kansas Governor Average Poll
- Toss Up
- Local polling data: Kris Kobach (R) favored by 1.0 point
2018 US Gubernatorial Election Winner – Maine
- Janet Mills (D) -1200
- Shawn Moody (R) +650
Current RCP Maine Governor Average Poll
- Janet Mills (D) favored by 8.0 points
2018 US Gubernatorial Election Winner – Michigan
- Gretchen Whitmer (D) -1400
- Bill Schuette (R) +700
Current RCP Michigan Governor Average Poll
- Gretchen Whitmer (D) favored by 9.2 points
2018 US Gubernatorial Election Winner – Minnesota
- Tim Walz (D) -900
- Jeff Johnson (R) +550
Current RCP Minnesota Governor Average Poll
- Tim Walz (D) favored by 7.0 points
2018 US Gubernatorial Election Winner – Nevada
- Alex Laxalt (R) +115
- Steve Sisolak (D) -145
Current RCP Nevada Governor Average Poll
- Alex Laxalt (R) favored by 1.5 points
2018 US Gubernatorial Election Winner – New Mexico
- Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) -1400
- Steve Pearce (R) +700
Current RCP New Mexico Governor Average Poll
- Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) favored by 8.0 points
2018 US Gubernatorial Election Winner – Ohio
- Mike DeWine (R) +115
- Richard Cordray (D) -145
Current RCP Ohio Governor Average Poll
- Richard Cordray (D) favored by 4.7 points
2018 US Gubernatorial Election Winner – Oregon
- Kate Brown (D) -350
- Knute Buehler (R) +275
Current RCP Oregon Governor Average Poll
- Kate Brown (D) favored by 4.3 points
2018 US Gubernatorial Election Winner – South Dakota
- Kristi Noem (R) -175
- Billie Sutton (D) +145
Current RCP South Dakota Governor Average Poll
- Toss Up
- Local polling data: Kristi Noem (R) favored by 3 points
2018 US Gubernatorial Election Winner – Wisconsin
- Tony Evers (D) -160
- Scott Walker (R) +130
Current RCP Wisconsin Governor Average Poll
- Toss Up
- Local polling data: Tie
2018 US Gubernatorial Election Winner – Florida
- Andrew Gillum (D) -220
- Ron DeSantis (R) +180
Current RCP Florida Governor Average Poll
- Andrew Gillum (D) favored by 2.7 points
2018 US Gubernatorial Election Winner – Georgia
- Brian Kemp (R) -200
- Stacey Abrams (D) +160
Current RCP Georgia Governor Average Poll
- Brian Kemp (R) favored by 2.8 points
2018 Betting Odds on US Senate Races
Much like the gubernatorial races, the polling on U.S. Senate races is very similar to the odds at the most premium sportsbooks.
Where the two races differ is when looking at the polling, since some Senate races have a huge point advantage in the polls while others have a candidate’s lead at less than a point, giving good value to both candidates as a result.
Click Here For Betting Odds And Polling Data On US Senate Races
2018 US Senate Election Winner – Arizona
- Martha McSally (R) -130
- Kyrsten Sinema (D) EVEN
Current RCP Arizona Senator Average Poll
- Kyrsten Sinema (D) favored by 1.9 point
2018 US Senate Election Winner – California
- Dianne Feinstein (D) -3000
- Field +900
Current RCP California Senator Average Poll
- Dianne Feinstein (D) favored by 12.8 points
2018 US Senate Election Winner – Florida
- Bill Nelson (D) -160
- Rick Scott (R) +130
Current RCP Florida Senator Average Poll
- Bill Nelson (D) favored by 2.4 points
2018 US Senate Election Winner – Indiana
- Joe Donnelly (D) -165
- Mike Braun (R) +135
Current RCP Indiana Senator Average Poll
- Joe Donnelly (D) favored by 0.8 points
2018 US Senate Election Winner – Michigan
- Debbie Stabenow (D) -1400
- John James (R) +700
Current RCP Michigan Senator Average Poll
- Debbie Stabenow (D) favored by 10.5 points
2018 US Senate Election Winner – Minnesota Special Election
- Tina Smith (D) -900
- Karin Housley (R) +550
Current RCP Minnesota Senator Average Poll
- Tina Smith (D) favored by 7.0 points
2018 US Senate Election Winner – Mississippi Special Election
- Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) -700
- Chris McDaniel (R) +1000
- Mike Espy (D) +600
Current RCP Mississippi Senator Average Poll
- Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) favored by 9.0 points
2018 US Senate Election Winner – Missouri
- Claire McCaskill (D) -110
- Josh Hawley (R) -120
Current RCP Missouri Senator Average Poll
- Josh Hawley (R) favored by 0.8 points
2018 US Senate Election Winner – Montana
- Jon Tester (D) -350
- Matt Rosendale (R) +275
Current RCP Montana Senator Average Poll
- Jon Tester (D) favored by 4.2 points
2018 US Senate Election Winner – Nevada
- Dean Heller (R) -115
- Jacky Rosen (D) -145
Current RCP Nevada Senator Average Poll
- Dean Heller (R) favored by 1.4 points
2018 US Senate Election Winner – New Jersey
- Bob Menendez (D) -700
- Bob Hugin (R) +475
Current RCP New Jersey Senator Average Poll
- Bob Menendez (D) favored by 7.6 points
2018 US Senate Election Winner – North Dakota
- Heidi Heitkamp (D) +325
- Kevin Cramer (R) -450
Current RCP North Dakota Senator Average Poll
- Kevin Cramer (R) favored by 11.4 points
2018 US Senate Election Winner – Ohio
- Sherrod Brown (D) -2000
- Jim Renacci (R) +800
Current RCP Ohio Senator Average Poll
- Sherrod Brown (D) favored by 7.5 points
2018 US Senate Election Winner – Tennessee
- Marsha Blackburn (R) -450
- Phil Bredesen (D) +325
Current RCP Tennessee Senator Average Poll
- Marsha Blackburn (R) favored by 5.2 points
2018 US Senate Election Winner – West Virginia
- Joe Manchin (D) -450
- Patrick Morrisey (R) +325
Current RCP West Virginia Senator Average Poll
- Joe Manchin (D) favored by 5.0 points
2018 US Senate Election Winner – Wisconsin
- Tammy Baldwin (D) -4000
- Leah Vukmir (R) +1000
Current RCP Wisconsin Senator Average Poll
- Tammy Baldwin (D) favored by 10.6 points
2018 US Senate Election Winner – Texas
- Ted Cruz (R) -400
- Beto O’Rourke (D) +300
Current RCP Texas Senator Average Poll
- Ted Cruz (R) favored by 6.5 points
2018 Betting Odds on US House Races
In total, there are three betting lines available so far, and the Republicans appear to be favored by a decent margin in all three races.
Click Here For Betting Odds And Polling Data On US House Of Reps Races
2018 US House of Representatives Election Winner – California 50th
- Duncan Hunter (R) -400
- Ammar Campa-Najjar (D) +300
RCP Latest Local Polling
- Duncan Hunter (R) favored by 3.0 points
2018 US House of Representatives Election Winner – Iowa 4th
- Steve King (R) -800
- D. Scholten (D) +500
RCP Latest Local Polling
- Steve King (R) favored by 7.0 points
- Iowa 4th leans GOP
2018 US House of Representatives Election Winner – New York 27th
- Chris Collins (R) -350
- Nate McMurray (D) +275
RCP Latest Local Polling
- Chris Collins (R) favored by 7.0 points
