2018 Midterm Election Betting Odds

2018 Midterm Elections button

As of Tuesday, November 6, 2018, registered voters from around the United States have decided which candidates would be elected to public office at the congressional, state, and local levels during the 2018 Midterm Elections. There were also numerous amendments up for vote on individual state ballots, including multiple gambling ballot measures. Early voting was well underway both at physical locations and by mail across the US.

Democrats were vying for control of Congress in an effort to derail Trump’s movement as POTUS.  Republicans were desperately trying to maintain control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Political polls, betting odds, and commentators all had predictions on what to expect in the Midterm Election results for 2018. However, if there was anything to learn from 2016, it was to expect the unexpected, which may explain the surge of interest in political wagering

Sportsbooks were offering odds on a whopping 40 betting lines for this general election, covering everything from majority outcomes in the U.S. House of Representatives and U.S. Senate along with individual races in both and many key races for Governor in several states as well.

Midterm 2018 Election Results

The Democrats did not receive the huge blue wave they expected but the party was successful in taking the house. This significant change means the Democrats will have a seat at the table where current POTUS cannot pass laws without the Democratic vote which may also have implications of re-opening investigation scandals against the President and his administration. However, this election had several implications across the US and several key races which we list were being watched closely.

Key Races:

Kentucky 6th Congressional District – Incumbent Andy Barr (R) won against challenger Amy McGrath (D)

Georgia Governorship Brain Kemp (R) won against challenger Stacey Abrams (D)

Texas Senate – Incumbent Ted Cruz (R) won against challenger Beto O’Rouke (D)

North Dakota SenateKevin Cramer (R) won against incumbent Keidi Heitkamp (D)

Missouri SenateJohn Hawley (R) won against incumbent Claire McCaskill (D)

Indiana Senate – Mike Braun (R) won against incumbent Joe Donnelly (D)

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Analyzing The Odds For The 2018 Midterms

It is always interesting to compare the odds to the polls in political betting lines.  With the 2018 midterm elections being very volatile for this election season, we thought we would see how the odds line up with polling data from RealClearPolitics.com.  These figures were in place at the time of this writing but will likely fluctuate somewhat between now and November 6th.  Anytime you want to check the odds in real time you can view Bovada’s political betting odds.

2018 Majority in Congress Betting Odds

The congressional majority odds seem to mimic the current polling data from RCP with the Democrats taking back the House and Republicans keeping the Senate.

And speaking of the Senate, RealClearPolitics.com predicts the Republicans will gain one seat following the election, giving them a total of 52. However, the odds currently have 53 and 51 seats as the favorite.

2018 US House of Representatives Election – Majority Outcome

  • Democratic Majority -300
  • Republican Majority +200
  • No Overall Majority +10000

 

Current RCP House Prediction

  • Democrats: 202
  • Republicans: 194
  • Toss Up: 39

 

2018 US Senate Election – Majority Outcome

  • Republican Majority -450
  • Democratic Majority +800
  • No Overall Majority +500

 

Current RCP Senate Prediction

  • Republicans: 50
  • Democrats: 43
  • Toss Up: 7

 

Who will be the next Speaker of the House of Representatives?

  • Nancy Pelosi -200
  • Jim Jordan +650
  • Kevin McCarthy +275
  • Steve Scalise +2000
  • James Clyburn +5000
  • Field +500

 

Our Breakdown

  • Pelosi is the favorite now since she’ll resume her role as speaker should the Dems win the House. However, if the GOP wins, then McCarthy will likely get the job after getting approval from Trump at Paul Ryan’s retirement dinner.

 

2018 Midterms Election – Exact Outcome

  • Democratic House / GOP Senate -195
  • GOP House / GOP Senate +200
  • Democratic House / Democratic Senate +850
  • GOP House / Democratic Senate +10000

 

Our Breakdown

  • While it’s looking likely that the Dems will gain control the House and the GOP will keep the Senate, sharp money has recently come in on the GOP keeping both.

 

2018 US Senate Election – Exact Republican Senate Seats After Midterms

  • 60 Or More +1000
  • 59 +2500
  • 58 +1500
  • 57 +1000
  • 56 +900
  • 55 +750
  • 54 +550
  • 53 +550
  • 52 +500
  • 51 +450
  • 50 +700
  • 49 Or Less +800

 

Current RCP Senate Prediction – No Toss Ups

  • Republicans: 52
  • Democrats: 48
  • Net Gain: Republicans +1 Seat

2018 Betting Odds on Governor Races

The odds for each race for governor this election is nearly identical to that of RCP and local polling data, but most of the races are under a double-digit advantage.

However, some states are too close to predict right now and value can be found among many of the underdogs who fall within the margin of error, which is typically 3-4 points when conducting a poll.

Click Here For Betting Odds And Polling Data On 2018 Gubernatorial Races

2018 US Gubernatorial Election Winner – Alaska

  • Mike Dunleavy (R) -280
  • Mark Begich (D) +220

 

Current RCP Alaska Governor Average Poll

  • Toss-Up:
  • Local polling data: Mike Dunleavy (R) favored by 1.0 point

 

2018 US Gubernatorial Election Winner – Colorado

  • Jared Polis (D) -1600
  • Walker Stapleton (R) +750

 

Current RCP Colorado Governor Average Poll

  • Jared Polis (D) favored by 6.5 points

 

2018 US Gubernatorial Election Winner – Illinois

  • JB Pritzker (D) -1200
  • Bruce Rauner (R) +650

 

Current RCP Illinois Governor Average Poll

  • JB Pritzker (D) favored by 15.7 points

 

2018 US Gubernatorial Election Winner – Iowa

  • Fred Hubbell (D) -150
  • Kim Reynolds (R) +120

 

Current RCP Iowa Governor Average Poll

  • Toss Up
  • Local Polling data: Fred Hubbell (D) favored by 0.7 points

 

2018 US Gubernatorial Election Winner – Kansas

  • Kris Kobach (R) -130
  • Laura Kelly (D) EVEN

 

Current RCP Kansas Governor Average Poll

  • Toss Up
  • Local polling data: Kris Kobach (R) favored by 1.0 point

 

2018 US Gubernatorial Election Winner – Maine

  • Janet Mills (D) -1200
  • Shawn Moody (R) +650

 

Current RCP Maine Governor Average Poll

  • Janet Mills (D) favored by 8.0 points

 

2018 US Gubernatorial Election Winner – Michigan

  • Gretchen Whitmer (D) -1400
  • Bill Schuette (R) +700

 

Current RCP Michigan Governor Average Poll

  • Gretchen Whitmer (D) favored by 9.2 points

 

2018 US Gubernatorial Election Winner – Minnesota

  • Tim Walz (D) -900
  • Jeff Johnson (R) +550

 

Current RCP Minnesota Governor Average Poll

  • Tim Walz (D) favored by 7.0 points

 

2018 US Gubernatorial Election Winner – Nevada

  • Alex Laxalt (R) +115
  • Steve Sisolak (D) -145

 

Current RCP Nevada Governor Average Poll

  • Alex Laxalt (R) favored by 1.5 points

 

2018 US Gubernatorial Election Winner – New Mexico

  • Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) -1400
  • Steve Pearce (R) +700

 

Current RCP New Mexico Governor Average Poll

  • Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) favored by 8.0 points

 

2018 US Gubernatorial Election Winner – Ohio

  • Mike DeWine (R) +115
  • Richard Cordray (D) -145

 

Current RCP Ohio Governor Average Poll

  • Richard Cordray (D) favored by 4.7 points

 

2018 US Gubernatorial Election Winner – Oregon

  • Kate Brown (D) -350
  • Knute Buehler (R) +275

 

Current RCP Oregon Governor Average Poll

  • Kate Brown (D) favored by 4.3 points

 

2018 US Gubernatorial Election Winner – South Dakota

  • Kristi Noem (R) -175
  • Billie Sutton (D) +145

 

Current RCP South Dakota Governor Average Poll

  • Toss Up
  • Local polling data: Kristi Noem (R) favored by 3 points

 

2018 US Gubernatorial Election Winner – Wisconsin

  • Tony Evers (D) -160
  • Scott Walker (R) +130

 

Current RCP Wisconsin Governor Average Poll

  • Toss Up
  • Local polling data: Tie

 

2018 US Gubernatorial Election Winner – Florida

  • Andrew Gillum (D) -220
  • Ron DeSantis (R) +180

 

Current RCP Florida Governor Average Poll

  • Andrew Gillum (D) favored by 2.7 points

 

2018 US Gubernatorial Election Winner – Georgia

  • Brian Kemp (R) -200
  • Stacey Abrams (D) +160

 

Current RCP Georgia Governor Average Poll

  • Brian Kemp (R) favored by 2.8 points


2018 Betting Odds on US Senate Races

Much like the gubernatorial races, the polling on U.S. Senate races is very similar to the odds at the most premium sportsbooks.

Where the two races differ is when looking at the polling, since some Senate races have a huge point advantage in the polls while others have a candidate’s lead at less than a point, giving good value to both candidates as a result.

Click Here For Betting Odds And Polling Data On US Senate Races

2018 US Senate Election Winner – Arizona

  • Martha McSally (R) -130
  • Kyrsten Sinema (D) EVEN

 

Current RCP Arizona Senator Average Poll

  • Kyrsten Sinema (D) favored by 1.9 point

 

2018 US Senate Election Winner – California

  • Dianne Feinstein (D) -3000
  • Field +900

 

Current RCP California Senator Average Poll

  • Dianne Feinstein (D) favored by 12.8 points

 

2018 US Senate Election Winner – Florida

  • Bill Nelson (D) -160
  • Rick Scott (R) +130

 

Current RCP Florida Senator Average Poll

  • Bill Nelson (D) favored by 2.4 points

 

2018 US Senate Election Winner – Indiana

  • Joe Donnelly (D) -165
  • Mike Braun (R) +135

 

Current RCP Indiana Senator Average Poll

  • Joe Donnelly (D) favored by 0.8 points

 

2018 US Senate Election Winner – Michigan

  • Debbie Stabenow (D) -1400
  • John James (R) +700

 

Current RCP Michigan Senator Average Poll

  • Debbie Stabenow (D) favored by 10.5 points

 

2018 US Senate Election Winner – Minnesota Special Election

  • Tina Smith (D) -900
  • Karin Housley (R) +550

 

Current RCP Minnesota Senator Average Poll

  • Tina Smith (D) favored by 7.0 points

 

2018 US Senate Election Winner – Mississippi Special Election

  • Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) -700
  • Chris McDaniel (R) +1000
  • Mike Espy (D) +600

 

Current RCP Mississippi Senator Average Poll

  • Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) favored by 9.0 points

 

2018 US Senate Election Winner – Missouri

  • Claire McCaskill (D) -110
  • Josh Hawley (R) -120

 

Current RCP Missouri Senator Average Poll

  • Josh Hawley (R) favored by 0.8 points

 

2018 US Senate Election Winner – Montana

  • Jon Tester (D) -350
  • Matt Rosendale (R) +275

 

Current RCP Montana Senator Average Poll

  • Jon Tester (D) favored by 4.2 points

 

2018 US Senate Election Winner – Nevada

  • Dean Heller (R) -115
  • Jacky Rosen (D) -145

 

Current RCP Nevada Senator Average Poll

  • Dean Heller (R) favored by 1.4 points

 

2018 US Senate Election Winner – New Jersey

  • Bob Menendez (D) -700
  • Bob Hugin (R) +475

 

Current RCP New Jersey Senator Average Poll

  • Bob Menendez (D) favored by 7.6 points

 

2018 US Senate Election Winner – North Dakota

  • Heidi Heitkamp (D) +325
  • Kevin Cramer (R) -450

 

Current RCP North Dakota Senator Average Poll

  • Kevin Cramer (R) favored by 11.4 points

 

2018 US Senate Election Winner – Ohio

  • Sherrod Brown (D) -2000
  • Jim Renacci (R) +800

 

Current RCP Ohio Senator Average Poll

  • Sherrod Brown (D) favored by 7.5 points

 

2018 US Senate Election Winner – Tennessee

  • Marsha Blackburn (R) -450
  • Phil Bredesen (D) +325

 

Current RCP Tennessee Senator Average Poll

  • Marsha Blackburn (R) favored by 5.2 points

 

2018 US Senate Election Winner – West Virginia

  • Joe Manchin (D) -450
  • Patrick Morrisey (R) +325

 

Current RCP West Virginia Senator Average Poll

  • Joe Manchin (D) favored by 5.0 points

 

2018 US Senate Election Winner – Wisconsin

  • Tammy Baldwin (D) -4000
  • Leah Vukmir (R) +1000

 

Current RCP Wisconsin Senator Average Poll

  • Tammy Baldwin (D) favored by 10.6 points

 

2018 US Senate Election Winner – Texas

  • Ted Cruz (R) -400
  • Beto O’Rourke (D) +300

 

Current RCP Texas Senator Average Poll

  • Ted Cruz (R) favored by 6.5 points


2018 Betting Odds on US House Races

In total, there are three betting lines available so far, and the Republicans appear to be favored by a decent margin in all three races.

Click Here For Betting Odds And Polling Data On US House Of Reps Races

2018 US House of Representatives Election Winner – California 50th

  • Duncan Hunter (R) -400
  • Ammar Campa-Najjar (D) +300

 

RCP Latest Local Polling

  • Duncan Hunter (R) favored by 3.0 points

 

2018 US House of Representatives Election Winner – Iowa 4th

  • Steve King (R) -800
  • D. Scholten (D) +500

 

RCP Latest Local Polling

  • Steve King (R) favored by 7.0 points
  • Iowa 4th leans GOP

 

2018 US House of Representatives Election Winner – New York 27th

  • Chris Collins (R) -350
  • Nate McMurray (D) +275

 

RCP Latest Local Polling

  • Chris Collins (R) favored by 7.0 points