Presidential Impeachment Odds

Presidential Impeachment Odds

Betting on Biden Impeachment Odds

Biden ImpeachmentFor most of the past four years, Trump impeachment odds have been a trending topic at the best online political betting sites. However, it’s now 2021, and there’s a new POTUS in town. So, out with the old and in with the new: Biden impeachment odds!

Of course, credit where credit is due: Biden may be the new hotness, but Presidential impeachment odds really gained momentum during the first term of former President Donald Trump, and many bettors were actually paid out when Trump was formally impeached at the end of 2019 (and again when he was impeached in January 2021). Now, bettors have to decide on whether or not Biden will suffer the same fate.

In general terms, an impeachment is a civil suit brought by congressional officials in the House of Representatives against the President for a supposed crime he or she has committed. To be impeached does not necessarily remove the President from office, however, so the Senate trial that takes place during the impeachment process provides bettors with many wagering opportunities and betting lines for various potential outcomes.

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Is It Legal To Bet On Presidential Impeachment?

Gambling on political betting odds, such as betting on the 2024 Presidential election, is legal so long as the wager is placed through a licensed and regulated domestic or offshore sportsbook. With US-based sports betting being such a new commodity in America, there are no state-regulated sportsbooks offering these kinds of betting options as of yet.

However, there are several licensed offshore sportsbooks that are offering betting options and odds for Biden to be impeached. You will see several of these sites listed here, and they meet all the regulatory criteria and credentials to serve US gamblers with legal online political betting options.

For bettors that do find local options in the future, it may still be worth betting at a licensed offshore sportsbook due to the bonuses and competitive odds offered. We recommend you shop lines from all available options (including multiple online betting sites) to find the best possible deals.

Are There Always Betting Odds Available For Presidential Impeachment?

No. Odds typically only surface when there is actually a chance that impeachment will take place.  Licensed offshore sportsbooks will normally be the first to provide odds on Presidential impeachment.

However, impeachment odds are not exclusively for Presidents, as Vice Presidents and other civil officers of the government can be impeached and put on trial. That said, only the highest-ranking politicians will have their impeachment chances reflected on the odds boards.

What Are The Odds Of Trump Being Convicted By The Senate?

Biden might be the impeachment focus these days, but Trump’s second impeachment trial is currently ongoing in the US Senate. The upper chamber would have to see 17 Republicans vote in favor of conviction in order to bar Trump from running for President again, which is clearly the goal here.

Though there are constitutional questions about whether or not an impeachment trial can be held for a private citizen, the proceedings are currently ongoing, and the top online sports betting sites with political odds allow you to wager on the outcome.

Bovada has the following Trump Senate conviction odds available right now:

2021 Trump Conviction Odds

How many Senators will vote to convict Trump on incitement charges? 

  • 55 Or 56 +180
  • 53 Or 54 +210
  • 51 Or 52 +800
  • 57 Or 58 +800
  • 50 Or Fewer +1600
  • 67 Or More +1600
  • 59 Or 60 +2000
  • 61 Or 62 +5000
  • 63 Or 64 +10000
  • 65 Or 66 +10000

What Are The Odds Of President Biden Being Impeached?

Several groups and politicians have called for Trump’s impeachment, and they got their wish in December 2019 (and again in January 2021). However, the vote to impeach was purely partisan, with no House GOP representatives voting for the motion. Trump’s acquittal in the Senate was similarly along party lines (except for Republican Senator from Utah, Mitt Romney, who voted to convict).

When it comes to Biden impeachment, given that the Democrats now control both the House and the Senate, this seems much less likely for the current POTUS than it did for the former POTUS.

We don’t think it’s very likely Biden will be impeached or otherwise removed from office in any official way (though he may resign at some point), but anything’s possible. After the last four years, that’s the one thing you can count on.

Our guide to political prop bets and election props covers other betting options often tied to President Biden (and ex-President Trump), as well.

Will Joe Biden leave office via impeachment? 

  • No -2000
  • Yes +700

Will Biden complete his first term as US President?

  • Yes -165
  • No +125

What year will Kamala Harris become US President? 

  • 2021 +200
  • 2023 +350
  • 2024 +350
  • 2025 +350
  • 2022 +400
  • TBA
  • TBA

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Why Are Joe Biden Impeachment Odds Trending?

Joe Biden, despite allegedly winning the presidency in the 2020 November general election, is clearly unfit for office due to various health issues (namely his apparent “cognitive decline” or “dementia”).

However, a President cannot be impeached for health reasons. The real question is whether or not the Democratic Party will want Biden gone and the latter will refuse to play ball.

In that case, it’s not completely out of the realm of possibility that his ties to the Ukraine Burisma energy scandal – along with son Hunter Biden – could cause an impeachment effort. Still, that’s highly unlikely.

Biden probably will not be impeached, and if you ever see betting lines on whether or not the 25th Amendment will be invoked to remove him from office, you should take the “No” on that, too.

The only likely way that Biden leaves the presidency is that he’d resign due to health issues, handing over the reins to Vice President Kamala Harris. If you ever see Joe Biden Presidential resignation odds, we’d recommend giving those a good, hard look.

What Led To The 2021 Trump Impeachment Inquiry?

On January 6, 2021, some 500,000 Trump supporters protested the electoral college vote in the US Congress. While there was minimal damage compared to the riots that burned across major American cities (with the support of the Democratic political establishment, no less), Trump was accused by the media of having “incited insurrection.” This, despite his statement – delivered on camera for all the world to see – being totally to the contrary.

So, why is Trump being impeached again?

Well, the first Trump impeachment trial didn’t go well for the left, and Trump impeachment poll results showed the issue to be publicly unpopular. Now, with less than two weeks left in his term as President, Trump faces impeachment again.

There is some question as to whether the Trump impeachment hearing will be held before he leaves office, but the answer to “Will Trump get impeached again?” seems to be a resounding yes.

The rationale is simple. The Democrats are concerned that Trump remains overwhelmingly popular, as are establishment Republicans, many of whom have indicated support for the second round of Trump impeachment.

Trump’s impeachment at the end of his term is not about removing him from office. Instead, it’s about preventing him from running for President again. And that’s telling, as Trump is currently the favorite on the 2024 Presidential election betting boards.

What Does Another Impeachment Mean For Trump?

At this stage, not much. The Senate would have to vote to convict with a 67-member supermajority, which seems unlikely, as the upper chamber is split 50-50 along party lines.

However, should Trump impeachment actually result in a conviction (even once he is no longer in office, if that’s even constitutional), the result would be that he’d not be able to run for President again.

Given that the Donald Trump impeachment process has done away with customary decorum, legal online sportsbooks have plenty of impeachment odds, conviction odds, removal odds, and future election betting odds that are related to the current Trump impeachment initiative.

What Led To The 2019 Trump Impeachment Inquiry?

The Mueller Report

On March 22, the Mueller Report was delivered to Attorney General William Barr to review. He later released a summary stating the investigation “did not find evidence to charge other Americans in conspiring with Russia in 2016.” Barr’s report stated that it did not come to a conclusion about obstruction of justice.

On March 27, 2019, Representative Rashida Tlaib introduced resolution H.Res. 257 which called for a formal impeachment investigation, after H.Res.13 was introduced in January of 2019 Representative Brad Sherman.

Earlier in March, Jerry Nadler, House Judiciary Committee Chairman, requested documents and an unredacted report from the Special Counsel for a pre-impeachment investigation.

However, a DOJ spokesperson called Nadler’s subpoena “premature and unnecessary,” saying the publicly released redacted version of the report later released on April 18 had “minimal redactions” and that Attorney General Barr has already made arrangements to show Congress the report with even fewer redactions.

Following Mueller’s testimony on July 24, House Democrats did not file official impeachment proceedings.

Ukraine Scandal

While the Mueller Testimony did not give Democrats immediate cause for an impeachment inquiry, a July 25, 2019, phone call between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky did. According to an anonymous whistleblower complaint, Trump threatened to withhold military aid to Ukraine unless Zelensky investigated Joe and Hunter Biden involvement in the corrupt Burisma power concern. This was not backed up by the actual call transcript, but the House Democrats proceeded with their inquiry.

Intelligence Chairman Adam Schiff subpoenaed Director of National Intelligence Joseph Maguire on September 13. After news outlets revealed that the complaint regarded Ukraine, Trump admitted that he did discuss the Bidens with Zelensky. As a result, on September 24, 2019, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced there would be a formal impeachment inquiry into Trump.

To prove his innocence, Trump released that phone call’s transcript on September 25, and Maguire gave his testimony to the House Intelligence Committee the next day. It didn’t matter, and the Democrats impeached Trump anyway. He was later acquitted in the US Senate.

Retrospective: Hard-Liners For and Against Donald Trump’s Impeachment

The politicians listed below are some of the most prolific members of government, and we’ve included their stances on the first Trump impeachment. All have indicated support of further impeachment hearings given that their first attempt turned out to be politically inexpedient and a mainstream nonstarter.

Trump impeachment supporters:

  • House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (did not favor impeachment prior to Ukrainian scandal)
  • Rep. Al Green
  • Rep. Brad Sherman
  • Rep. Rashida Tlaib
  • Democratic candidate Tom Seyer (founder of Need to Impeach)
  • Sen. Elizabeth Warren
  • Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (did not favor impeachment prior to Ukrainian scandal)
  • Rep. Justin Amash (former Republican, now the only independent in the House of Representatives)

Not in favor of impeachment:

  • Attorney General William Barr
  • Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein
  • Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
  • Sen. Pat Toomey
  • Rep. Dan Meuser
  • Rep. Lloyd Smucker
  • Rep. John Joyce
  • Rep. Scott Perry

2019-2020 Trump Impeachment Results

Donald Trump was formally impeached by the House of Representatives on December 18, 2019. Two nebulous charges were brought against him:

  • “Abuse of power”
  • “Obstruction of Congress”

The Democrat controlled House of Representatives voted 230-197 (4 abstentions) on the abuse of power charge and 229-198 (4 abstentions) on the obstruction charge. No Republicans voted to impeach Trump.

In the Senate, which needs a 67-vote majority to convict, the House’s efforts fell well short. On the abuse charge, there were 48 “guilty votes” and 52 “not guilty” votes, with Mitt Romney breaking ranks to vote against the man who beat him for the 2016 GOP Presidential nomination.

On the obstruction charge, Romney voted “not guilty,” along with 52 other Senators. Trump was formally acquitted on February 5, 2020, with the entire impeachment and trial process taking just over six weeks.

Every Senate Democrat voted to convict Trump and remove him from office. It remains to be seen how this will affect the party in future elections.

Which Presidents Have Undergone The Impeachment Process?

Three U.S. Presidents have undergone the entire process of being impeached. The first was Andrew Johnson, the 17th President of the United States, and the second was Bill Clinton, the 42nd President. Both were acquitted of their charges and permitted to resume their elected Presidential terms to completion.

In December 2019, Donald Trump became the third President to be impeached, and he was acquitted in the Senate on February 5, 2020. In 2021, Trump became the first ever POTUS to be impeached twice.

Overall, the House of Representatives is 0-3 in its historical impeachment attempts (soon to be 0-4), which is something that political betting sharps should keep in mind for all the next times.

A fourth U.S. President, Richard Nixon, was set to undergo the impeachment process but resigned before proceedings could get fully underway, all due to his role in the 1972-1974 Watergate Scandal.

FAQs

What Qualifies A President To Be Impeached?
According to the U.S. Constitution, any government official, Vice President, and/or the President may undergo the process of being impeached if they are suspected of bribery, treason, or other high crimes and/or misdemeanors.
Who Can Impeach The President?
Technically, the people can initiate the impeachment process. While it is carried out by the legislative body, they too can initiate the process, as well as judges, House members, or even a public petition.
How Long Is The Impeachment Process?
Few impeachments against a President have occurred, but judging by the length of Johnson’s process to Nixon’s and Clinton’s, it seems as technology advances, the ability to undergo and complete an impeachment process becomes faster and less cumbersome. Clinton’s impeachment process lasted 5 months. An impeachment process today could be completed well within 3 months’ time, with betting odds for impeachment even sooner than that.
Can Anyone Stop The Impeachment Process Once It Starts?
Not as long as a majority of the U.S. House of Representatives votes to begin an impeachment process. Unlike typical civil or criminal trials, impeachment trials do not have to meet the same evidence or charging standards. The U.S. Constitution provides the House with the sole Power of Impeachment and Congress can decide what matters in an impeach trial. Unless the individual undergoing the process of being impeached resigns from their position, there is little one can do to stop an impeachment trial.
Can A President Be Impeached Twice?
There was no precedent for impeaching a sitting US President more than once, until Trump was impeached for a second time in January 2021. Any public servant can be impeached for any perceived or actual crime, and there are no limits on how many impeachments a POTUS can face.