The Republican Senate majority has allowed the current Trump administration to appoint Republican-loyal federal judges through majority votes which have shaped how the United States judicial system leans. In the 2020 Senate elections, we could see Democrats fighting harder than ever to restore their power in the upper chamber. The fight might be more or less aggressive by the Democrats depending on whether or not President Donald Trump is re-elected in 2020.
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US Senate Control (117th Congress)
House And Senate Balance Of Power (117th Congress)
Absolutely. There are no federal laws that prohibit US residents from placing political bets at licensed and regulated offshore sportsbooks such as the ones you see here. However, few 2020 election odds for US Senate races have been made available at this time, though that is likely to change as the November 3, 2020 general election approaches.
The Republicans hold the controlling majority in the Senate. However, the Democrats have an avenue to take over. It is a path with little room for error, but the Democratic party has everything to gain if the cards fall in their favor. As things stand now, the US Senate has 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two Independents. There are a total of 35 seats up for reelection on Tuesday, November 3, 2020.
In order to gain control of the Senate, the Democrats need to gain more seats in addition to the ones they currently hold. The odds are not as favorable for the Democrats in taking the Senate as they are in retaining the House for 2020.
Below is a list of the states with seats up for grabs in the 2020 midterm Senate election. For each state, we’ve included the current incumbent and their party affiliation.
|New Hampshire||Democratic||Jeanne Shaheen|
|New Jersey||Democratic||Cory Booker|
|New Mexico||Democratic||Tom Udall|
|North Carolina||Republican||Thom Tillis|
|Rhode Island||Democratic||Jack Reed|
|South Carolina||Republican||Lindsey Graham|
|South Dakota||Republican||Mike Rounds|
|West Virginia||Republican||Shelley Moore Capito|
There are 15 Senate elections that could drastically alter the course of party politics in the upper chamber. These battleground states include the following (with current party affiliation in parentheses):
The US Senate is controlled by the Republicans, and while the GOP is predicted to keep the upper chamber, there are a few notable Senators who might be at risk. Most of these are staunch Trump allies, and while their seats might be safe, their margins of victory will be viewed as a sort of public “referendum” on the Trump administration.
Tom Cotton (R) – Arkansas
Cotton’s seat seems safe, but the bigger issue is where his immense popularity will take him. As the most hardline Republican in the Senate, Cotton could be angling for his own Presidential run one day, and it will be important for him to maintain his popularity with his base as well as his national name recognition. Cotton needs a big win in November general.
Mitch McConnell (R) – Kentucky
Mitch McConnell, the Senate Majority Leaders, has long been a media punching bag given his allegiance to the President. However, while his seat is likely safe due to the fact that he’s held it since 1984, KY skews a bit blue in places, and it’s not out of the question that you’ll find betting lines on McConnell at offshore sportsbooks.
Ben Sasse (R) – Nebraska
Ben Sasse is relatively young at 48, and he’s up for his first re-election after taking office as a Senator in 2014. He is popular in the historically red state, but his ambitions are sky high, and a win isn’t good enough. Sasse needs to win bigly to have a chance at biglier and better things.
Cory Booker (D) – New Jersey
Cory Booker ran for President in the 2020 primary cycle, but he dropped out relatively early on. He seems perfectly safe for a long Senate run in the state, but he could be vulnerable if NJ flirts with flipping red. While that is unlikely, nobody likes a loser, and Booker’s Presidential campaign was flat and uninspiring since Day One.
Lindsey Graham (R) – South Carolina
As chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee, Lindsey Graham should be safe. South Carolina is strongly red at the national level, but it’s also the state where Joe Biden’s odds flipped and secured him the status as presumptive nominee. Whether or not SC will flirt with turning blue, Graham will probably have a slightly tougher time with this election than any before it, given his support for Trump.
The 2020 Senate elections are the Republicans’ to lose. The Democrats will have a much tougher time gaining the seats they need versus the Republicans maintaining the ones they hold. If you would have looked at the list of states according to how likely they are to vote Republican versus Democrat, you’d see the Republicans have the advantage.
But if there’s anything that the 2016 election taught us, it’s that things can change on a dime, and the 2020 Senate elections may end up being a nail-biter for upper chamber party control. Once the top legal election betting sites post odds on the 2020 Senate races, we’ll update this space to reflect those figures.
There are several factors that go into predicting the Senate elections in 2020. The most important data points to consider are the following (tempered by the fact that incumbent US Senators on both sides of the aisle enjoy a re-election rate of better than 90%):
Political experts correctly predicted that the Democratic party would take over the US House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm elections. However, President Trump enjoys a booming economy and constant attention from the media, and he is polling strongly. Even the ever-present Trump impeachment odds don’t seem to be hurting GOP incumbent Senators, though polling data is generally untrustworthy. The Democratic party has a steep hill to climb to take back the Senate, but a Blue Wave is not impossible.
Still, President Trump predicts a Red Wave in 2020 along with his own re-election in the November general. He is confident in the Republican party and regularly accuses the media of interfering with the 2016 and 2018 elections. Political experts predict neither a Red Wave nor a Blue Wave, instead projecting a balanced political equilibrium throughout Congress.