2020 Senate Election Betting Odds

2020 Senate Election Betting Odds

Odds For 2020 Senate Elections

2020 Senate Election Update (11/4):  As of Nov. 4, it looks like the GOP will maintain a slim majority in the US Senate, though this could change in the days to come as final votes in key battlegrounds are tallied.

The Republican Senate majority has allowed the current Trump administration to appoint Republican-loyal federal judges through majority votes which have shaped how the United States judicial system leans.

In the 2020 Senate elections, we saw Democrats fighting harder than ever to restore their power in the upper chamber. The fight might be more or less aggressive by the Democrats depending on whether or not President Donald Trump is re-elected in 2020.

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2020 Senate Runoff Election Odds

There are only two 2020 Senate races left that political bettors wager on through our recommended online sportsbooks. Both are runoff elections for Georgia’s two Senate seats. Georgia, a typically red state, flipped blue in the 2020 Presidential election. The last time that happened was in 1996.

On January 5th, Georgians vote on whether for their state Senators and decide the next few years’ political climate.

🍑 2020 Georgia Senate Runoff Election Odds

Which Party Will Control The Senate After 2020 Election?*

  • Republicans -120
  • Democrats -110

U.S. Senate Election Winner – Georgia (Special Election)*

  • Kelly Loeffler (R) +135
  • Raphael Warnock (D) -180

U.S. Senate Runoff Election Winner – Georgia (General Election)*

  • David Perdue (R) +105
  • Jon Ossoff (D) -135

*Odds from Bovada 1/4/21

Impact Of The 2020 Georgia Senate Runoff Election

The two Georgia Senate runoffs carry significant implications for policy over the next few years. If the two Democratic underdogs manage to win, a 50-50 Republican to Democrat split occurs in the Senate. The sitting Vice President acts as the Senate vote tiebreaker. With President-elect Joe Biden poised to take office on January 20th, that duty will fall upon Kamala Harris.

If that were to happen, the DNC would control Congress, the Senate, and the Presidency. Wins for Ossoff and Warnock implicate sweeping Democratic legislation and policy with little to no opposition until the 2022 Midterm Elections, where new opportunities to change Senate composition arise.

What Are Senate Runoff Elections And Why Do They Happen?

Senate runoff elections do not happen in every state, and only 12 states abide by the runoff election system.

A runoff election happens when more than two candidates run for an office seat, and the electorate’s votes do not give one candidate a 50% majority. The two candidates that received the most votes in that election hold another election (a runoff), where the electorate votes again to give one of those two a majority and decide a winner.

What Are Senate Special Elections And Why Do They Happen?

A special election may happen for any Senatorial seat and is sometimes referred to as a bye-election. State Senators have two-year terms. In some cases, a Senator steps down from office (due to retirement, death, scandal, etc.) before their term ends. A Senate special election refers to an election to fill a vacant Senate seat between a general election.

In some instances, such as in Georgia, the state Governor appoints an interim Senator to fill the vacant seat until the next general election. In other cases, special elections begin at the time an officeholder vacates their seat.

US Senate Betting Odds 2020

The winners for the following US Senate races (at least those that have been called as of November 4) are featured below in bold.

Odds provided by BetOnline.

Kentucky Senate Race*

  • Mitch McConnell -1000
  • Amy McGrath +550

South Carolina Senate Race*

  • Lindsey Graham -400
  • Jaime Harrison +250

Alabama Senate Race*

  • Tommy Tuberville -1200
  • Doug Jones +750

Arizona Senate Race*

  • Mark Kelly -500
  • Martha McSally +300

Colorado Senate Race*

  • John Hickenlooper -900
  • Cory Gardner +500

Iowa Senate Race*

  • Joni Ernst -140
  • Theresa Greenfield +100

Kansas Senate Race*

  • Roger Marshall -500
  • Barbara Bollier +300

Maine Senate Race – TBA*

  • Sara Gideon -300
  • Susan Collins +200 (leading as of Nov. 4)

Michigan Senate Race – TBA*

  • Gary Peters -425
  • John James +265 (leading as of Nov. 4)

Montana Senate Race*

  • Steve Daines -175
  • Steve Bullock +135

North Carolina Senate Race – TBA*

  • Cal Cunningham -200
  • Thom Tillis +150 (leading as of Nov. 4)

*Odds from Nov. 1, 2020.

2020 Congressional Balance of Power Odds

Note: The following odds are currently off the boards, but this is how they looked on Election Day 2020.

Via Bovada

US Senate Control (117th Congress)*

  • Republicans  +100
  • Democrats  -130

House And Senate Balance Of Power (117th Congress)*

  • Democratic House, Democratic Senate +125
  • Democratic House, Republican Senate +175
  • Republican House, Republican Senate +500
  • Republican House, Democratic Senate +6600

*Odds from Nov. 1, 2020.

Can I Legally Bet On The 2020 Senate Elections?

Absolutely. There are no federal laws that prohibit US residents from placing political bets at licensed and regulated offshore sportsbooks such as the ones you see here.  All the 2020 election odds for US Senate races were made available before November 3, and a few odds remain up as the final few states finish their counts.

Democrats On Narrow Path To Take Over

The Republicans hold the controlling majority in the Senate. However, the Democrats have an avenue to take over. It is a path with little room for error, but the Democratic party has everything to gain if the cards fall in their favor. As things stand now, the US Senate has 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two Independents. There are a total of 35 seats up for reelection on Tuesday, November 3, 2020.

In order to gain control of the Senate, the Democrats need to gain more seats in addition to the ones they currently hold. The odds are not as favorable for the Democrats in taking the Senate as they are in retaining the House for 2020.

Update: As of Nov. 4, it looks like the Republicans will maintain a slight Senate majority for the next congress. 

States Up For Grabs In 2020 Senate Elections

Below is a list of the states that had seats up for grabs in the 2020 midterm Senate election. For each state, we’ve included the current incumbent and their party affiliation.

Senate Seats

AlabamaDemocraticDoug Jones
AlaskaRepublicanDan Sullivan
ArizonaRepublicanMartha McSally
ArkansasRepublicanTom Cotton
ColoradoRepublicanCory Gardner
DelawareDemocraticChris Coons
GeorgiaRepublicanDavid Perdue
Georgia (Special)RepublicanTBA
IdahoRepublicanJim Risch
IllinoisDemocraticDick Durbin
IowaRepublicanJoni Ernst
KansasRepublicanPat Roberts
KentuckyRepublicanMitch McConnell
LouisianaRepublicanBill Cassidy
MaineRepublicanSusan Collins
MassachusettsDemocraticEd Markey
MichiganDemocraticGary Peters
MinnesotaDemocraticTina Smith
MississippiRepublicanCindy Hyde-Smith
MontanaRepublicanSteve Daines
NebraskaRepublicanBen Sasse
New HampshireDemocraticJeanne Shaheen
New JerseyDemocraticCory Booker
New MexicoDemocraticTom Udall
North CarolinaRepublicanThom Tillis
OklahomaRepublicanJim Inhofe
OregonDemocraticJeff Merkley
Rhode IslandDemocraticJack Reed
South CarolinaRepublicanLindsey Graham
South DakotaRepublicanMike Rounds
TennesseeRepublicanLamar Alexander
TexasRepublicanJohn Cornyn
VirginiaDemocraticMark Warner
West VirginiaRepublicanShelley Moore Capito
WyomingRepublicanMike Enzi

Make Or Break States

There were 15 Senate elections that could drastically alter the course of party politics in the upper chamber. These battleground states include the following (with current party affiliation in parentheses):

  • Alabama (D)
  • Arizona (R)
  • Colorado (R)
  • Georgia (R)
  • Iowa (R)
  • Kansas (R)
  • Kentucky (R)
  • Maine (R)
  • Michigan (D)
  • Minnesota (D)
  • Montana (R)
  • New Hampshire (D)
  • New Mexico (D)
  • North Carolina (R)
  • Texas (R)

Key Senators Up For Re-Election In 2020

The US Senate is controlled by the Republicans, and while the GOP is predicted to keep the upper chamber, there are a few notable Senators who were though to be at risk. Most of these are staunch Trump allies, and while their seats might have been safe, their margins of victory will be viewed as a sort of public “referendum” on the Trump administration.

Tom Cotton (R) – Arkansas – Winner

Recap: Cotton’s seat seems safe, but the bigger issue is where his immense popularity will take him. As the most hardline Republican in the Senate, Cotton could be angling for his own Presidential run one day, and it will be important for him to maintain his popularity with his base as well as his national name recognition. Cotton needs a big win in November general.

Mitch McConnell (R) – Kentucky – Winner

Recap: Mitch McConnell, the Senate Majority Leaders, has long been a media punching bag given his allegiance to the President. However, while his seat is likely safe due to the fact that he’s held it since 1984, KY skews a bit blue in places, and it’s not out of the question that you’ll find betting lines on McConnell at offshore sportsbooks.

Ben Sasse (R) – Nebraska – Winner

Recap: Ben Sasse is relatively young at 48, and he’s up for his first re-election after taking office as a Senator in 2014. He is popular in the historically red state, but his ambitions are sky high, and a win isn’t good enough. Sasse needs to win bigly to have a chance at biglier and better things.

Cory Booker (D) – New Jersey – Winner

Recap: Cory Booker ran for President in the 2020 primary cycle, but he dropped out relatively early on. He seems perfectly safe for a long Senate run in the state, but he could be vulnerable if NJ flirts with flipping red. While that is unlikely, nobody likes a loser, and Booker’s Presidential campaign was flat and uninspiring since Day One.

Lindsey Graham (R) – South Carolina – Winner

Recap: As chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee, Lindsey Graham should be safe. South Carolina is strongly red at the national level, but it’s also the state where Joe Biden’s odds flipped and secured him the status as presumptive nominee. Whether or not SC will flirt with turning blue, Graham will probably have a slightly tougher time with this election than any before it, given his support for Trump.

Republican Advantage In 2020 Senate Elections

The 2020 Senate elections were the Republicans’ to lose. The Democrats will have a much tougher time gaining the seats they need versus the Republicans maintaining the ones they hold. If you would have looked at the list of states according to how likely they are to vote Republican versus Democrat, you’d see the Republicans had the advantage.

But if there’s anything that the 2016 election taught us, it’s that things can change on a dime, and the 2020 Senate elections may end up being a nail-biter for upper chamber party control. Once the top legal election betting sites posted odds on the 2020 Senate races, that turned out to be the case, though the results on November 4 seem to indicate continued GOP control in the Senate.

How To Predict Senate Elections

There are several factors that go into predicting the Senate elections. The most important data points to consider are the following (tempered by the fact that incumbent US Senators on both sides of the aisle enjoy a re-election rate of better than 90%):

  • Candidate recruitment – Parties work hard to mold their perfect candidate with the best odds of winning in a given district. Pay attention to the candidates to whom the DNC and GOP committees give the most support.
  • Fundraising – Money talks in politics, and some candidates have a better financial foundation to stand on. Typically, the more money a campaign has, the better its chance of victory, as it is more able to purchase ad buys and get its candidate’s message out.
  • Voting history – Voting history and voter registration data play a big part in predicting which party or candidate is going to win a US Senate race. Gerrymandering, while nominally banned, also occurs, so it’s important to look at redistricting maps where applicable (albeit this is usually less of an issue in statewide Senate races).
  • Recent trends – The “recent trends” data point reflects voter sentiment on current events, and it can be informative when picking which Senators you think will win election or re-election.  For example, in 2020, would voters be high on the current Republican administration and vote for more GOPers, or would they be tired of the Donald Trump show and vote for Democrat replacements in the US Senate?

Red Wave, Blue Wave?

Political experts correctly predicted that the Democratic party would take over the US House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm elections. However, President Trump enjoyed a booming economy and constant attention from the media, and he was polling strongly pre-COVID. Even the ever-present Trump impeachment odds didn’t seem to be hurting GOP incumbent Senators, though polling data is generally untrustworthy. The Democratic party has a steep hill to climb to take back the Senate, but a blue flip is not impossible, though it now seems very unlikely.

President Trump predicted a Red Wave in 2020 along with his own re-election in the November general. He was confident in the Republican party and regularly accused the media of interfering with the 2016 and 2018 elections. Political experts predicted neither a Red Wave nor a Blue Wave, instead projecting a balanced political equilibrium throughout Congress.

2020 Senate Midterm Elections FAQs

Will I be breaking any laws if I bet on the 2022 Senate midterm elections?
If you live in Washington State or Connecticut, I’m afraid that the only way you can bet on the election is to visit a brick and mortar sportsbook in Vegas that is covering betting lines for the election. However, residents from all other states are able to legally place bets online at one of the licensed sportsbooks you see listed on this page. This is because WA and CT have both passed laws specifically prohibiting ALL forms of online gambling. Neither state has done anything to enforce this law, but it is in place. There are no federal laws that make it a crime to enjoy political betting lines at a legally sanctioned offshore bookmaker that is verified to be operating legally within the industry.
How long is a senator’s term for?
A Senator’s term is six years and approximately one-third of the total Senate membership is elected every two years.
How many terms can you serve in the Senate?
Members of the US Senate may serve an unlimited amount of six-year terms as long as they are reelected each cycle.
How many senators are there per state?
Each state has 2 Senators.
What do US senators do?
Senators work as part of the legislative branch of the US government. This means their focus is on making laws. The Senator’s job is to represent the people of his or her state in the US Senate. Senators are supposed to work closely with their state constituents to figure out how to help them on the federal level.
How much do US Senators make?
Senators make $174,000 per year. Senate Majority Leaders make $199,700 per year.
What is the difference between the House of Representatives and the Senate?
The House of Representatives is considered the lower chamber of Congress and is more directly accountable to the general public. The House is considered the more democratic of the 2 chambers whereas the Senate is more aristocratic. The Senate’s objective is to do what is best for the country, even if that may not be in the best interest of the general public. They debate topics like treaties and foreign policy. The Senate also has the power to confirm Cabinet recommendations and override a President’s veto by 2/3 vote.
How are senators elected?
Senators are elected by residents of the state they represent. The US Constitution has certain qualifications for Senators including they must be at least 30 years old, have been a citizen for at least 9 years and must be a resident of the state they wish to represent.
Who was the first female senator?
Hattie Caraway was the first female senator and was elected to the Senate in 1932 to represent Arkansas.
How do I contact my US senator?
There are 2 ways to contact a member of the US Senate. You can contact them via mail at their work address or you can reach them by telephone. Citizens are encouraged to contact their Senators with any questions or concerns regarding bills and policy changes.