Presidential removal is not always a primary consideration, but for the duration of the Trump administration, it’s been an almost daily rallying cry for about half the country. There are tens of millions of people who want to remove Trump from office now, and the media hasn’t been shy about covering the issue. Naturally, then, bettors are interested in the odds of Trump being removed.
Of course, online sportsbooks are only too happy to provide eager gamblers with plenty of Donald Trump odds, but you should do your best to understand how Presidential removal actually works before risking your hard-earned money on such an outcome. To that end, our brief guide explains everything you need to know about the odds Trump will be removed from office.
It is safe and legal to wager on Trump removal odds, but you can only place such wagers at reputable offshore sportsbooks. Domestic books in states that have legalized sports betting do not offer election odds or other political odds, even though no state has specifically criminalized gambling on politics.
That said, two states – Connecticut and Washington – have made online gambling illegal across the board, preventing players from wagering on Trump removal and enjoying other political markets over the Internet. However, these laws are historically unenforced, and gambling online remains safe in those regions. Still, we recommend that you follow all local gambling laws, and if you live in CT or WA, you wager online at your own risk.
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The odds on Trump being removed from office are pretty slim, but they are available at many of the top election betting sites. Right now, you can see that only BetOnline and SportsBetting have removal odds posted, with bettors favoring retention over removal.
*Most recent odds found at BetOnline
Trump is uniquely polarizing, and as a result, the political odds available have skyrocketed over the last couple of years. In past Presidencies, it was pretty much impossible to find odds on presidential removal, but the age of Trump means that such odds are popping up at sportsbooks all over the Internet.
Going forward, it’s a good bet that politics itself will remain contentious and intriguing enough that bookies will continue offering impeachment odds, resignation odds, and removal odds on whoever occupies the White House.
Removal of the President from office requires the government to follow a specific and strict methodology. Technically speaking, the US Constitution only allows for one way to remove a sitting President: impeachment by the US House of Representatives followed by a conviction in the US Senate.
When it comes to how to remove Trump, there really isn’t any other way that the government can go about it. This, in effect, means that when you bet on the removal of President Trump, you are betting on his being impeached by the House and convicted by the Senate. No other contingency that results in Trump removal is likely to be considered a “win” at sportsbooks for this type of wager.
No! Presidential impeachment is the simple act of the House of Representatives charging the POTUS with a crime or other official malfeasance while in office. If the President is impeached, a hearing is held in the House, and a vote is taken. If the House votes to proceed, the articles of impeachment are sent to the US Senate, where the President will be tried for the charges in question.
If you’re curious about what President was impeached and removed from the position, you’ll find that it’s actually never happened. Richard M. Nixon was the only US President to resign from the Presidency (1974), but he was never formally impeached or removed. The list of Presidents removed from office is currently sitting at zero, and it is unlikely that Trump will be the first POTUS to get expelled from the job.
Technically, such a contingency could happen, and it’s been the norm in countless countries throughout history. However, a military coup is unlikely to happen in the US, and most sportsbooks would not honor a coup as legitimate removal for betting purposes.
Many bettors are curious about how to remove a President from office, but for wagering purposes, a sportsbook is only going to recognize official legal removal via Senate conviction as binding. If there’s a military coup as above, that won’t pay out, nor will any other forcible removal or act of God (as when a President dies in office).
Above, you can see the betting odds for Trump removal. However, it’s important to differentiate between betting odds and actual odds. Betting odds, remember, are simply the lines the sportsbook publishes based on bettor consensus – that is, where bettors are spending their money. Actual mathematical odds about the likelihood of Trump removal are another matter entirely, and if history is any indication, the odds that Trump will be removed as President are extremely low.
The only likely way Trump will be “removed” from the Presidency is by losing the 2020 general election or being term-limited per the 22nd Amendment of the US Constitution. Should Trump win re-election in November, he will be forced to leave the Presidency on January 20, 2025.
Other than Vice President Mike Pence becoming the acting Commander in Chief, it is difficult to know exactly what would happen if Trump were removed from office. There would likely be protests and civil unrest at the very least, but a President has never been removed before, and there are a number of unknowns with such an outcome. At least you’d win your bet and get a nice payout!
If the President is impeached and removed from office, the Vice President would be next in line to fill the post. After that, Presidential succession policies are clear, and the entire line looks like this:
If a President resigns or is voted out of office, they still receive their pension (over $200,000 per year) and other benefits, like full secret service protection for life. However, if a President is removed from office by the Senate after being convicted in an impeachment trial, their pension would probably be forfeited (though they would likely continue to receive Secret Service protection).
Removal and resignation are not the same thing. If Trump is removed from office through impeachment and conviction, you will win your Presidential removal bet. However, if Trump voluntarily leaves office or – for whatever reason outside of Senate removal – no longer serves as US President, you would not be able to cash out on the wager.