Online political sportsbooks tend to focus on the general election cycle and the Presidential campaigns between the Democratic and Republican Party Nominees, but early on in the process, the odds focus on large groups of Presidential candidates running for office. Just like voters, oddsmakers seem to favor two-party politics when offering betting odds on state primary or general election cycles for POTUS, but there’s a first time for everything, and the potential is higher than ever for a third party to emerge.
Sportsbooks offer a host of futures betting lines for a variety of 2024 political betting categories. Not only can you bet on which candidate will win the general election, but you can also bet on how each candidate will fare in the Electoral College voting in each state. Online books mostly focus on battleground states, but as election day draws nearer, all states have the potential to inspire betting odds.
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Nominees for the 2024 Presidential Election cycle have not been declared. Once more concrete information is available for potential GOP and DNC candidates for POTUS, we’ll provide a comprehensive listing here, as well as the associated political betting odds.
Nevada has introduced legislation to bump up their primary date which would place them at the front of the line, and there is the chance that more states could follow suit. Stay tuned to this section as the order of the Primary election calendar is likely to change.
|New Hampshire Primary||TBA||TBA|
|South Carolina Primary||TBA||TBA|
|North Carolina Primary||TBA||TBA|
|American Samoa Caucus||TBA||TBA|
|Puerto Rico Primary||TBA||TBA|
|Virgin Islands Caucus||TBA||TBA|
|Northern Marianas Convention||TBA||TBA|
|District of Columbia Convention||TBA||TBA|
|North Dakota Convention||TBA||TBA|
|Rhode Island Primary||TBA||TBA|
|New Jersey Primary||TBA||TBA|
|New Mexico Primary||TBA||TBA|
|South Dakota Primary||TBA||TBA|
The 2020 Democratic primary season is finally underway, and we have the up-to-date delegate allotment listed below. As more and more results come in over the coming weeks, the DNC landscape is sure to come into focus. Additionally, betting lines on each Democratic candidate are going to move after each primary/caucus result, so take that into account if you’re putting money on the line.
Delegate Count As Of July 29, 2020:
|Candidate||Delegates (1,990 to win)|
The following candidates earned delegates in 2020 but have dropped out of the race:
Note: Joe Biden now has enough delegates to secure the nomination, but he still needs to be confirmed at the DNC National Convention, and there is a very small chance that the party could choose a different candidate. However, given Biden’s polling and betting odds, it seems unlikely that they will do so, as he’s now favored to beat Trump in the November general.
Below, you will see a listing of each US State with a link to view the state primary odds, dates and other relevant information for each of them. Once polling figures are circulating, we will also provide a look at those as well.
While betting is now closed for all but a few remaining swing states, the electoral odds for each state were finalized on November 3 as the following:
New Hampshire (NH)
North Carolina (NC)
In 2020, most online election betting sites were offering only limited action on primary contests. This was likely because presumptive nominee Joe Biden and incumbent Donald Trump were ultimately running unopposed for the majority of the primary season.
The betting odds for state primaries associated with the 2020 Presidential election became more active once it was clear which states were participating on the Republican side, and which candidates were still kicking on the Democrat side. As the United States systematically underwent the state by state process that ultimately determined the winner of the presidential nomination for both the Democrats and Republicans, the odds, polls, and betting lines reflected the ebb and flow of the voice of the American people.
Here we are focused on assisting gamblers who enjoy political betting in managing the massive amounts of information and events so that they can enjoy instant access to state primary betting lines. Such lines will usually include both state primaries and caucuses and represent the participating parties.
Not every primary or caucus is always covered at all sportsbooks. Also please keep in mind that the data on any election calendar is subject to change according to the regulations and policies of each state. State pages also include information on relevant Senate and House of Representative elections, as well as any Gubernatorial races.
There are typically four categories of voting rules for state primaries and caucus events. These rules are applied at the pleasure of each state legislature according to individual state election rules and vary from region to region. The four voting types include the following:
Open Primary – All registered voters may place their vote for any party, regardless of which party you are registered or associated with. You may only vote for one party.
Closed Primary – Each party primary is only open to the party’s registered voters. Republicans can only vote for Republicans, and Democrats can only vote for Democrats. Independents and other party members are not allowed to vote unless they have an eligible candidate representing their party.
Semi-open Primary – All registered voters are free to vote for any candidate regardless of their party affiliation. Voters must request a ballot for the party candidate that they intend to vote for.
Semi-closed Primary – Voting is open to any registered party member or unaffiliated voter. Some states require voters to register with the party that they are voting for on Election Day. In this case, voters may change their affiliation on the spot to support a candidate that is a member of another party. Some states allow this to be done in the privacy of the voting booth when voting.
A state primary is a process by which each state votes for the Republican and Democratic presidential nominees. The state’s election rules determine if the primary voting process is open, closed, semi-open or semi-closed. The state is awarded a specific number of delegates to be passed on to the winners. Some states are a ‘winner take all’ situation while others proportionally award delegates based on the results of the top 2 or 3 candidates.
A caucus is a little different. Some caucuses still have actual voting taking place, while other states use a bit more complicated method. Sixteen states hold caucuses rather than primaries. A caucus is a local meeting that takes place in a town, city or county, where registered party members vote either through ballot or presence for the party candidate of their choice.
Each voter selects a group to support and physically attends a rally or meeting to show their support and discuss the candidate. Campaigns that do not meet the minimum threshold for the number of supporters are typically disbanded. In other words, those candidates that do not have a strong showing of supporters often end their campaign following the event.
Unlike closed state primaries, you are not tied to your affiliated political party when placing bets on the outcome of the election. You can bet on any candidate from any party. You can also bet on any state primary or caucus, you are not limited to only the election options in the state that you live in.
The candidate you love and are voting for may not be the candidate you bet on. For voting purposes, you want to listen to the candidates and what they have to say. For betting, you want to follow the odds and market predictions to determine who has the best chance at winning – regardless of how you personally feel about them as a qualified candidate.
We’d have to say no to this. Take Iowa in 2016 for example. The polls and the odds favored Trump to win by a significant margin in Iowa. However, Cruz was the winner of the state’s Republican caucus.
Nobody can accurately predict voting results 100% of the time when there are so many variables in play. Polls are often released using extremely small samples of people or are skewed purposely by voters. None of it is 100% reliable, but that’s why they call it gambling. Don’t discount your ‘gut feeling’ when placing your bets.