There are typically four categories of voting rules for state primaries and caucus events.  These rules are applied at the pleasure of each state legislature according to individual state election rules and vary from region to region.  The four voting types include the following:

Open Primary – All registered voters may place their vote for any party, regardless of which party you are registered or associated with.  You may only vote for one party.

Closed Primary – Each party primary is only open to the party’s registered voters.  Republicans can only vote for Republicans, and Democrats can only vote for Democrats.  Independents and other party members are not allowed to vote unless they have an eligible candidate representing their party.

Semi-open Primary – All registered voters are free to vote for any candidate regardless of their party affiliation.  Voters must request a ballot for the party candidate that they intend to vote for.

Semi-closed Primary – Voting is open to any registered party member or unaffiliated voter.  Some states require voters to register with the party that they are voting for on Election Day.  In this case, voters may change their affiliation on the spot to support a candidate that is a member of another party.  Some states allow this to be done in the privacy of the voting booth when voting.

A state primary is a process by which each state votes for the Republican and Democratic presidential nominees.  The state’s election rules determine if the primary voting process is open, closed, semi-open or semi-closed.  The state is awarded a specific number of delegates to be passed on to the winners.  Some states are a ‘winner take all’ situation while others proportionally award delegates based on the results of the top 2 or 3 candidates.

A caucus is a little different.  Some caucuses still have actual voting taking place, while other states use a bit more complicated method.  Sixteen states hold caucuses rather than primaries.  A caucus is a local meeting that takes place in a town, city or county, where registered party members vote either through ballot or presence for the party candidate of their choice. 

Each voter selects a group to support and physically attends a rally or meeting to show their support and discuss the candidate.  Campaigns that do not meet the minimum threshold for the number of supporters are typically disbanded.  In other words, those candidates that do not have a strong showing of supporters often end their campaign following the event.

Unlike closed state primaries, you are not tied to your affiliated political party when placing bets on the outcome of the election.  You can bet on any candidate from any party.  You can also bet on any state primary or caucus, you are not limited to only the election options in the state that you live in. 

The candidate you love and are voting for may not be the candidate you bet on.  For voting purposes, you want to listen to the candidates and what they have to say.  For betting, you want to follow the odds and market predictions to determine who has the best chance at winning – regardless of how you personally feel about them as a qualified candidate.

We’d have to say no to this.  Take Iowa in 2016 for example. The polls and the odds favored Trump to win by a significant margin in Iowa.  However, Cruz was the winner of the state’s Republican caucus.  

Nobody can accurately predict voting results 100% of the time when there are so many variables in play.  Polls are often released using extremely small samples of people or are skewed purposely by voters.  None of it is 100% reliable, but that’s why they call it gambling.  Don’t discount your ‘gut feeling’ when placing your bets.