2020 Presidential Election Update (11/4): It looks mathematically likely that Joe Biden will win the Presidential election. While you can still bet on the outcomes in several important swing states, the odds of a Trump victory are slim to none. That said, the election will not be certified or finalized until all states formally cast their electoral votes in December.
The state primary elections are behind us, and the November general is nearly over (though some states still have to tally up their votes). Sportsbooks, naturally, have lately been focusing on the general election cycle and the Presidential campaigns between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Of course, there were other 2020 Presidential candidates running for office, but just like voters, oddsmakers seem to favor two-party politics when offering betting odds on state primary or general election cycles for POTUS.
Sportsbooks offered a host of futures betting lines for a variety of other political betting categories in 2020 as well. Not only could you bet on which candidate would win the general election, but you could also bet on how each candidate would fare in the electoral college voting in each state. Books were mostly focused on battleground states, but as November 3 came and went, all states were on the boards at the best books.
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Due to the coronavirus outbreak, several states delayed or restructured their primary elections. Despite the fact that Joe Biden and Donald Trump were already the presumptive nominees for the Democratic and Republican parties, the states still mostly held their primaries as usual (or under modified formats as a result of the pandemic).
The following section is included here for historical purposes:
The 2020 Democratic primary season is finally underway, and we have the up-to-date delegate allotment listed below. As more and more results come in over the coming weeks, the DNC landscape is sure to come into focus. Additionally, betting lines on each Democratic candidate are going to move after each primary/caucus result, so take that into account if you’re putting money on the line.
Delegate Count As Of July 29, 2020:
|Candidate||Delegates (1,990 to win)|
The following candidates earned delegates in 2020 but have dropped out of the race:
Note: Joe Biden now has enough delegates to secure the nomination, but he still needs to be confirmed at the DNC National Convention, and there is a very small chance that the party could choose a different candidate. However, given Biden’s polling and betting odds, it seems unlikely that they will do so, as he’s now favored to beat Trump in the November general.
Below, you will see a listing of each US State with a link to view the state primary odds, dates and other relevant information for each of them. Once polling figures are circulating, we will also provide a look at those as well.
While betting is now closed for all but a few remaining swing states, the electoral odds for each state were finalized on November 3 as the following:
New Hampshire (NH)
North Carolina (NC)
In 2020, most online election betting sites were offering only limited action on primary contests. This was likely because presumptive nominee Joe Biden and incumbent Donald Trump were ultimately running unopposed for the majority of the primary season.
The betting odds for state primaries associated with the 2020 Presidential election became more active once it was clear which states were participating on the Republican side, and which candidates were still kicking on the Democrat side. As the United States systematically underwent the state by state process that ultimately determined the winner of the presidential nomination for both the Democrats and Republicans, the odds, polls, and betting lines reflected the ebb and flow of the voice of the American people.
Here we are focused on assisting gamblers who enjoy political betting in managing the massive amounts of information and events so that they can enjoy instant access to state primary betting lines. Such lines will usually include both state primaries and caucuses and represent the participating parties.
Not every primary or caucus is always covered at all sportsbooks. Also please keep in mind that the data on any election calendar is subject to change according to the regulations and policies of each state. State pages also include information on relevant Senate and House of Representative elections, as well as any Gubernatorial races.
|Party Convention||July 13-16 2020||Aug 24-27 2020|
|Iowa Caucus||February 3 2020||Feb 3 2020|
|New Hampshire Primary||February 11 2020||February 11 2020|
|South Carolina Primary||February 29 2020||Cancelled|
|Nevada Caucus||February 22 2020||Cancelled|
|Colorado Primary||April 18 2020||March 2020|
|Alabama Primary||March 3 2020||March 3 2020|
|California Primary||March 3 2020||March 3 2020|
|Oklahoma Primary||March 3 2020||March 3 2020|
|Virginia Primary||March 3 2020||March 3 2020|
|Georgia Primary||March 3 2020||March 3 2020|
|Massachusetts Primary||March 3 2020||March 3 2020|
|North Carolina Primary||March 3 2020||March 3 2020|
|Tennessee Primary||March 3 2020||March 3 2020|
|Texas Primary||March 3 2020||March 3 2020|
|Vermont Primary||March 3 2020||March 3 2020|
|American Samoa Caucus||March 3 2020||March 24 2020|
|Louisiana Primary||March 7 2020||March 7 2020|
|Kansas Caucus||March 7 2020||Cancelled|
|Kentucky Caucus||May 19 2020||March 7 2020|
|Maine Caucus||March 8 2020||March 7 2020|
|Puerto Rico Primary||June 7 2020||March 8 2020|
|Missouri Primary||March 10 2020||March 10 2020|
|Idaho Primary||March 10 2020||March 10 2020|
|Michigan Primary||March 10 2020||March 10 2020|
|Minnesota Caucus||March 10 2020||March 10 2020|
|Hawaii Caucus||March 28 2020||March 10 2020|
|Mississippi Primary||March 10 2020||March 10 2020|
|Ohio Primary||March 10 2020||March 10 2020|
|Virgin Islands Caucus||June 6 2020||March 12 2020|
|Northern Marianas Convention||March 14 2020||March 17 2020|
|District of Columbia Convention||June 6 2020||March 14 2020|
|Guam Caucus||May 2 2020||March 14 2020|
|Wyoming Convention||April 11 2020||March 14 2020|
|Arizona Primary||March 17 2020||March 17 2020|
|Florida Primary||March 17 2020||March 17 2020|
|Illinois Primary||March 17 2020||March 17 2020|
|Utah Caucus||March 24 2020||March 24 2020|
|Washington Caucus||March 26 2020||March 26 2020|
|Alaska Caucus||March 28 2020||March 28 2020|
|North Dakota Convention||June 2 2020||April 3 2020|
|Wisconsin Primary||April 7 2020||April 7 2020|
|Connecticut Primary||April 28 2020||April 28 2020|
|Delaware Primary||April 28 2020||April 28 2020|
|Maryland Primary||April 28 2020||April 28 2020|
|Pennsylvania Primary||April 28 2020||April 28 2020|
|Rhode Island Primary||April 28 2020||April 28 2020|
|Indiana Primary||May 5 2020||May 5 2020|
|Nebraska Primary||May 12 2020||May 12 2020|
|West Virginia||May 12 2020||May 12 2020|
|Arkansas Primary||May 19 2020||May 19 2020|
|Oregon Primary||May 19 2020||May 19 2020|
|Montana Primary||June 2 2020||June 2 2020|
|New Jersey Primary||June 2 2020||June 2 2020|
|New Mexico Primary||June 2 2020||June 2 2020|
|South Dakota Primary||June 2 2020||June 2 2020|
There are typically four categories of voting rules for state primaries and caucus events. These rules are applied at the pleasure of each state legislature according to individual state election rules and vary from region to region. The four voting types include the following:
Open Primary – All registered voters may place their vote for any party, regardless of which party you are registered or associated with. You may only vote for one party.
Closed Primary – Each party primary is only open to the party’s registered voters. Republicans can only vote for Republicans, and Democrats can only vote for Democrats. Independents and other party members are not allowed to vote unless they have an eligible candidate representing their party.
Semi-open Primary – All registered voters are free to vote for any candidate regardless of their party affiliation. Voters must request a ballot for the party candidate that they intend to vote for.
Semi-closed Primary – Voting is open to any registered party member or unaffiliated voter. Some states require voters to register with the party that they are voting for on Election Day. In this case, voters may change their affiliation on the spot to support a candidate that is a member of another party. Some states allow this to be done in the privacy of the voting booth when voting.
A state primary is a process by which each state votes for the Republican and Democratic presidential nominees. The state’s election rules determine if the primary voting process is open, closed, semi-open or semi-closed. The state is awarded a specific number of delegates to be passed on to the winners. Some states are a ‘winner take all’ situation while others proportionally award delegates based on the results of the top 2 or 3 candidates.
A caucus is a little different. Some caucuses still have actual voting taking place, while other states use a bit more complicated method. Sixteen states hold caucuses rather than primaries. A caucus is a local meeting that takes place in a town, city or county, where registered party members vote either through ballot or presence for the party candidate of their choice.
Each voter selects a group to support and physically attends a rally or meeting to show their support and discuss the candidate. Campaigns that do not meet the minimum threshold for the number of supporters are typically disbanded. In other words, those candidates that do not have a strong showing of supporters often end their campaign following the event.
Unlike closed state primaries, you are not tied to your affiliated political party when placing bets on the outcome of the election. You can bet on any candidate from any party. You can also bet on any state primary or caucus, you are not limited to only the election options in the state that you live in.
The candidate you love and are voting for may not be the candidate you bet on. For voting purposes, you want to listen to the candidates and what they have to say. For betting, you want to follow the odds and market predictions to determine who has the best chance at winning – regardless of how you personally feel about them as a qualified candidate.
We’d have to say no to this. Take Iowa in 2016 for example. The polls and the odds favored Trump to win by a significant margin in Iowa. However, Cruz was the winner of the state’s Republican caucus.
Nobody can accurately predict voting results 100% of the time when there are so many variables in play. Polls are often released using extremely small samples of people or are skewed purposely by voters. None of it is 100% reliable, but that’s why they call it gambling. Don’t discount your ‘gut feeling’ when placing your bets.