State Primary And Electoral College Election Odds For 2028
State Primary And General Election Betting Odds For The 2028 Presidency
Online political sportsbooks tend to focus on the general election cycle and the Presidential campaigns between the Democratic and Republican Party Nominees, but early on in the process, the odds focus on large groups of Presidential candidates running for office. Just like voters, oddsmakers seem to favor two-party politics when offering betting odds on state primary or general election cycles for POTUS, but there’s a first time for everything, and the potential is higher than ever for a third party to emerge.
Sportsbooks offer a host of futures betting lines for a variety of 2028 political betting categories. You can bet not only on which candidate will win the general election, but also on how each candidate will fare in the Electoral College vote in each state. Online books mostly focus on battleground states, but as election day draws nearer, all states may inspire betting odds.
Best Sportsbooks For Betting On The State Primary Elections & Caucus Events
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2028 Presidential Primary Delegate Tracker
Nominees for the 2024 Presidential Election cycle have not been declared. Once we have more concrete information on potential GOP and DNC candidates for POTUS, we’ll provide a comprehensive listing here, along with the associated political betting odds.
2028 State Primary Election and Caucus Calendar
The 2028 presidential primary calendar is taking shape, although some state and party dates remain subject to change. Democrats have approved an early-state schedule beginning with South Carolina on January 22, followed by Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, and Virginia. Republicans have retained their traditional early-state order, beginning with the Iowa caucuses, followed by New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina.
Many Super Tuesday and later primary dates can be projected from current state election laws, but state-party-controlled caucus and convention dates may not be finalized until closer to 2028. Dates listed as tentative below should therefore be updated as state officials and the national parties formally certify their calendars.
| State/Contest | Democrat | Republican |
|---|---|---|
| Party Convention | TBA | TBA |
| Iowa Caucus | TBA | January 3, 2028* |
| New Hampshire Primary | February 8, 2028** | January 11, 2028* |
| South Carolina Primary | January 22, 2028 | TBA |
| Nevada Primary | February 1, 2028 | TBA |
| New Mexico Primary | February 15, 2028** | June 6, 2028* |
| Michigan Primary | February 22, 2028 | February 22, 2028* |
| Virginia Primary | February 29, 2028** | March 7, 2028* |
| Alabama Primary | March 7, 2028* | March 7, 2028* |
| Arkansas Primary | March 7, 2028* | March 7, 2028* |
| California Primary | March 7, 2028* | March 7, 2028* |
| Colorado Primary | March 7, 14, or 21, 2028* | March 7, 14, or 21, 2028* |
| Maine Primary | March 7, 2028* | March 7, 2028* |
| Massachusetts Primary | March 7, 2028* | March 7, 2028* |
| Minnesota Primary | March 7, 2028* | March 7, 2028* |
| North Carolina Primary | March 7, 2028* | March 7, 2028* |
| Oklahoma Primary | March 7, 2028* | March 7, 2028* |
| Rhode Island Primary | March 7, 2028* | March 7, 2028* |
| Tennessee Primary | March 7, 2028* | March 7, 2028* |
| Texas Primary | March 7, 2028* | March 7, 2028* |
| Utah Primary/Caucus | March 7, 2028* | March 7, 2028* |
| Vermont Primary | March 7, 2028* | March 7, 2028* |
| American Samoa Caucus | TBA | TBA |
| Hawaii Caucus/Primary | TBA | March 14, 2028* |
| Mississippi Primary | March 14, 2028* | March 14, 2028* |
| Washington Primary | March 14, 2028* | March 14, 2028* |
| Arizona Primary | March 21, 2028* | March 21, 2028* |
| Florida Primary | March 21, 2028 | March 21, 2028 |
| Illinois Primary | March 21, 2028* | March 21, 2028* |
| Ohio Primary | March 21, 2028* | March 21, 2028* |
| Louisiana Primary | March 25, 2028* | March 25, 2028* |
| Alaska Caucus | TBA | TBA |
| Kansas Caucus/Primary | TBA | TBA |
| Kentucky Primary | May 16, 2028* | May 16, 2028* |
| Missouri Primary/Caucus | TBA | TBA |
| Idaho Primary/Caucus | TBA | TBA |
| Virgin Islands Caucus | TBA | TBA |
| Northern Mariana Islands Convention | TBA | TBA |
| Guam Caucus | TBA | TBA |
| Wyoming Convention/Caucus | TBA | TBA |
| North Dakota Convention/Caucus | TBA | TBA |
| Wisconsin Primary | April 4, 2028* | April 4, 2028* |
| Connecticut Primary | April 4, 2028* | April 4, 2028* |
| Delaware Primary | April 25, 2028* | April 25, 2028* |
| Maryland Primary | April 25, 2028* | April 25, 2028* |
| Pennsylvania Primary | April 25, 2028* | April 25, 2028* |
| Indiana Primary | May 2, 2028* | May 2, 2028* |
| Nebraska Primary | May 9, 2028* | May 9, 2028* |
| West Virginia Primary | May 9, 2028* | May 9, 2028* |
| Oregon Primary | May 16, 2028* | May 16, 2028* |
| Montana Primary | June 6, 2028* | June 6, 2028* |
| New Jersey Primary | June 6, 2028* | June 6, 2028* |
| South Dakota Primary | June 6, 2028* | June 6, 2028* |
| District of Columbia Primary/Convention | June 6, 2028* | June 6, 2028* |
* Tentative or projected under current state law or party rules and subject to change.
** Date approved as part of the Democratic Party’s early-state calendar, but changes to state law or election scheduling may still be necessary.
State-By-State Election Results
Recent News Headlines For State Primaries & Candidates
November 14, 2024 - 5:29 pm
October 3, 2024 - 5:41 pm
September 25, 2024 - 1:56 pm
State Primary & General Election Betting Odds For The 2028 Presidential Race
Betting odds for state primaries tied to the 2028 Presidential election became more active once it became clear which states were participating on the Republican side and which candidates were still in the running on the Democratic side. As the United States moved through the state-by-state process that ultimately determined the winner of the presidential nomination for both Democrats and Republicans, the odds, polls, and betting lines reflected the ebb and flow of the American people’s voice.
Here we are focused on assisting gamblers who enjoy political betting in managing the massive amounts of information and events so that they can enjoy instant access to state primary betting lines. Such lines will usually include both state primaries and caucuses and represent the participating parties.
Not every primary or caucus is covered at every sportsbook. Also, keep in mind that election calendar data is subject to change based on each state’s regulations and policies. State pages also include information on relevant Senate and House of Representatives elections, as well as any Gubernatorial races.
2028 State Primary FAQs
There are typically four categories of voting rules for state primaries and caucus events. These rules are applied at the discretion of each state legislature according to individual state election rules and vary from region to region. The four voting types include the following:
Open Primary – All registered voters may vote for any party, regardless of which party you are registered with or associated with. You may only vote for one party.
Closed Primary – Each party primary is open only to that party’s registered voters. Republicans can vote only for Republicans, and Democrats can vote only for Democrats. Independents and other party members are not allowed to vote unless they have an eligible candidate representing their party.
Semi-open Primary – All registered voters are free to vote for any candidate regardless of their party affiliation. Voters must request a ballot for the party candidate that they intend to vote for.
Semi-closed Primary – Voting is open to any registered party member or unaffiliated voter. Some states require voters to register with the party that they are voting for on Election Day. In this case, voters may change their affiliation on the spot to support a candidate from another party. Some states allow this in the privacy of the voting booth.
A state primary is a process by which each state votes for the Republican and Democratic presidential nominees. The state’s election rules determine whether the primary is open, closed, semi-open, or semi-closed. The state is awarded a specific number of delegates to be passed on to the winners. Some states are a ‘winner take all’ situation while others proportionally award delegates based on the results of the top 2 or 3 candidates.
A caucus is a little different. Some caucuses still have actual voting, while other states use a more complicated method. Sixteen states hold caucuses rather than primaries. A caucus is a local meeting in a town, city, or county where registered party members vote by ballot or in person for the party candidate of their choice.
Each voter selects a group to support and physically attends a rally or meeting to show their support and discuss the candidate. Campaigns that do not meet the minimum supporter threshold are typically disbanded. In other words, candidates without a strong showing of supporters often end their campaign after the event.
Unlike closed state primaries, you are not tied to your affiliated political party when placing bets on the outcome of the election. You can bet on any candidate from any party. You can also bet on any state primary or caucus, you are not limited to only the election options in the state that you live in.
The candidate you love and are voting for may not be the candidate you bet on. For voting purposes, you want to listen to the candidates and what they have to say. For betting, you want to follow the odds and market predictions to determine who has the best chance at winning – regardless of how you personally feel about them as a qualified candidate.
We’d have to say no to this. Take Iowa in 2016, for example. The polls and the odds favored Trump to win by a significant margin in Iowa. However, Cruz won the state’s Republican caucus.
Nobody can accurately predict voting results 100% of the time when there are so many variables in play. Polls are often based on extremely small samples or are purposely skewed by voters. None of it is 100% reliable, but that’s why they call it gambling. Don’t discount your ‘gut feeling’ when placing your bets.