The State of the Union (SOTU) is a Presidential address or speech which provides the current administration’s plans for legislation and views of the current state of the nation. The most recent SOTU address was on February 5, 2019, but President Donald Trump will be addressing the US once again this year on February 4, 2020.
Betting on the State of the Union has become an active category for political wagering, as the event is typically an annual affair. As broadcast technology has improved, the SOTU has become increasingly more watched by the populace at large.
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The SOTU always invites a host of fun betting lines. These are going to be over/unders and yes/no wagers for the most part, though there are few “multiple choice” bets mixed in as well. The following State of the Union prop bets are from BetOnline:
How many times will “China” be said by President Trump?
How many times will “Democrat” be said by President Trump?
How many times will “economy” be said by President Trump?
How many times will “Iran” be said by President Trump?
Will “Impeach/impeached/impeachment” be said by President Trump?
Length of State of the Union address:
President Trump’s approval rating increase on 2/5/20:
Who will President Trump mention first in his opening remarks?
The “designated survivor” of Trump’s SOTU address:
Total non-facts said by President Trump:
Total tweets by President Trump on 2/4/20:
Will Trump refer to Nancy Pelosi as “Nervous Nancy” or “Crazy Nancy”?
What outfit will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wear during the SOTU address?
Will “coronavirus” be said President Trump?
Will “Kim Jong-Un” be said President Trump?
Will “Putin” be said President Trump?
Will President Trump mention the Super Bowl?
On February 4, 2020, President Donald Trump will deliver the fourth and final State of the Union address of his first term as POTUS. The speech, which is being given while he is the subject of an impeachment trial in the US Senate, will make him the first President to address the nation under such conditions. However, Trump likely intends to use the platform to push major policy wins in the lead-up to his 2020 Presidential campaign.
After Trump’s 9:00 p.m. speech (which should run between 60 and 90 minutes), Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer will give the Democratic party’s response, while TX Democrat Rep. Veronica Escobar will give the Spanish-language response.
Political betting is legal in the US if done through licensed and regulated offshore sportsbooks. Domestic sportsbooks currently do not offer political odds, which include SOTU odds.
However, licensed and regulated offshore books almost always provide political betting odds for SOTU prop bets, futures, and more. Keep in mind that sportsbooks may only put these odds up a few days before a scheduled address, updating their boards with new odds and lines every few hours.
Historically, Presidents were never required to deliver SOTU addresses in person. In fact, many simply wrote their addresses and did not make the trek to the Capitol to give their speeches. Such Presidents employing this tack included:
However, including Trump’s SOTU address on February 5, 2019, there have been 96 in-person State of the Union addresses delivered by a sitting President. The basis for addressing the nation is written within and mandated by the US Constitution.
The typical procedure for the State of the Union address consists of the speaker of the House of Representatives inviting the President to appear before the two Congressional Houses to give his/her speech.
During the start of our nation’s development, our first president, George Washington, became the first to fulfill this Constitutional tradition in 1790 with an in-person address to Congress in the Senate Chamber of Federal Hall in the old U.S. Capital (New York City). The SOTU address was known only as the Annual Message in 1790 and kept that moniker until 1946. Thomas Jefferson, our nation’s third president, broke the mold and was the first to deliver his Annual Message to Congress in writing.
Written Annual Messages became more commonplace after that. Woodrow Wilson altered that tradition after reigniting the in-person delivery mode in 1913. The Annual Message would later be called the State of the Union under Franklin D. Roosevelt’s administration.
Naturally, technological developments have played a big role in how SOTU addresses were/are pushed out to the public at large.
The most recent State of the Union address by Donald Trump in 2019 received 46.79 million viewers through the four major cable networks airing it. Trump’s State of the Union address in 2019 received more views than Obama’s SOTU address in 2011 (42.79 million viewers) and Clinton’s SOTU address in 1995 (42.2 million viewers). However, George W. Bush’s SOTU address in 2003 got 62 million viewers during the invasion of Iraq, making Bush’s the most-watched SOTU address of all time.
Notably, Trump’s 2020 address will have the distinction of being the first to be given while a President is the subject of active impeachment proceedings. Whether this will garner more viewers than his last speech (or Bush’s record-holder) remains to be seen.
Typical State of the Union bets made available through licensed sportsbooks include prop bets like the following:
Though these topics might seem broad, offshore political betting sites will always post specific guidelines to help inform your wagers.