State Of The Union Betting Odds

State Of The Union Betting Odds

Presidential sealThe State of the Union (SOTU) is a Presidential address or speech which provides the current administration’s plans for legislation and views of the current state of the nation. The most recent SOTU address was on February 5, 2019, but President Donald Trump will be addressing the US once again this year on February 4, 2020.

Betting on the State of the Union has become an active category for political wagering, as the event is typically an annual affair. As broadcast technology has improved, the SOTU has become increasingly more watched by the populace at large.

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2020 State Of The Union Odds Betting Odds

The SOTU always invites a host of fun betting lines. These are going to be over/unders and yes/no wagers for the most part, though there are few “multiple choice” bets mixed in as well. The following State of the Union prop bets are from BetOnline:

First country mentioned by President Trump:

  • China -175
  • Iran +250
  • Mexico +300
  • North Korea +900
  • Venezuela +900
  • Iraq +1400
  • Saudi Arabia +1400

How many times will “China” be said by President Trump?

  • Over 6½ -120
  • Under 6½ -120

How many times will “Democrat” be said by President Trump?

  • Over 3½ -120
  • Under 3½ -120

How many times will “economy” be said by President Trump?

  • Over 4½ -150
  • Under 4½ +110

How many times will “Iran” be said by President Trump?

  • Over 4½ -120
  • Under 4½ -120

Will “Impeach/impeached/impeachment” be said by President Trump?

  • No -200
  • Yes +150

Length of State of the Union address:

  • Over 82½ minutes -120
  • Under 82½ minutes -120

President Trump’s approval rating increase on 2/5/20:

  • Less than 0.3 percent -140
  • More than 0.3 percent +100

Who will President Trump mention first in his opening remarks?

  • Speaker of the House +100
  • Fellow Americans +150
  • Vice President +350
  • Senate Majority Leader +800
  • Members of Congress +900
  • First Lady +1200

The “designated survivor” of Trump’s SOTU address:

  • Ben Carson +500
  • Betsy DeVos +550
  • Alex Azar +600
  • Wilbur Ross +600
  • Dan Brouillette +900
  • Robert Wilkie +900
  • Chad Wolf +1000
  • Eugene Scalia +1000
  • Chuck Grassley +1200
  • David Bernhardt +1200
  • Sonny Perdue +1500
  • Steven Mnuchin +1500
  • William Barr +1500
  • Mark Esper +1800
  • Mike Pompeo +2000
  • Mike Pence +2500
  • Nancy Pelosi +2500

Total non-facts said by President Trump:

  • Over 27½ non-facts -120
  • Under 27½ non-facts -120

Total tweets by President Trump on 2/4/20:

  • Over 9½ tweets and retweets -160
  • Under 9½ tweets and retweets +120

Total viewers:

  • Under 47 million -140
  • Over 47 million +100

Will Trump refer to Nancy Pelosi as “Nervous Nancy” or “Crazy Nancy”?

  • No -1000
  • Yes +550

What outfit will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wear during the SOTU address?

  • Pantsuit -150
  • Dress +200
  • Cape +500
  • T-Shirt +1000
  • Pajamas +2000
  • Hooded Sweatshirt +3000
  • Superhero Costume +5000

Will “coronavirus” be said President Trump?

  • Yes -300
  • No +200

Will “Kim Jong-Un” be said President Trump?

  • No -150
  • Yes +110

Will “Putin” be said President Trump?

  • No -1000
  • Yes +500

Will President Trump mention the Super Bowl?

  • No -1100
  • Yes +650

2020 State Of The Union Address

On February 4, 2020, President Donald Trump will deliver the fourth and final State of the Union address of his first term as POTUS. The speech, which is being given while he is the subject of an impeachment trial in the US Senate, will make him the first President to address the nation under such conditions. However, Trump likely intends to use the platform to push major policy wins in the lead-up to his 2020 Presidential campaign.

After Trump’s 9:00 p.m. speech (which should run between 60 and 90 minutes), Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer will give the Democratic party’s response, while TX Democrat Rep. Veronica Escobar will give the Spanish-language response.

How To Watch The 2020 State Of The Union

  • Date: February 4, 2020
  • Time: 9:00 p.m. EST
  • Location: Washington DC, USA
  • Venue: House Chamber, United States Capitol
  • Broadcast: ABC, CBS, FOX, NBC, CNN, MSNBC, FOX News

Is It Legal To Bet On The State Of The Union Address?

Political betting is legal in the US if done through licensed and regulated offshore sportsbooks. Domestic sportsbooks currently do not offer political odds, which include SOTU odds.

However, licensed and regulated offshore books almost always provide political betting odds for SOTU prop bets, futures, and more. Keep in mind that sportsbooks may only put these odds up a few days before a scheduled address, updating their boards with new odds and lines every few hours.

A Brief History Of The State Of The Union

Historically, Presidents were never required to deliver SOTU addresses in person. In fact, many simply wrote their addresses and did not make the trek to the Capitol to give their speeches. Such Presidents employing this tack included:

  • Calvin Coolidge
  • Herbert Hoover
  • Franklin Roosevelt
  • Harry Truman
  • Dwight Eisenhower
  • Richard Nixon
  • Jimmy Carter

However, including Trump’s SOTU address on February 5, 2019, there have been 96 in-person State of the Union addresses delivered by a sitting President. The basis for addressing the nation is written within and mandated by the US Constitution.

The typical procedure for the State of the Union address consists of the speaker of the House of Representatives inviting the President to appear before the two Congressional Houses to give his/her speech.

State of The Union: Interesting Facts

President speakingDuring the start of our nation’s development, our first president, George Washington, became the first to fulfill this Constitutional tradition in 1790 with an in-person address to Congress in the Senate Chamber of Federal Hall in the old U.S. Capital (New York City). The SOTU address was known only as the Annual Message in 1790 and kept that moniker until 1946. Thomas Jefferson, our nation’s third president, broke the mold and was the first to deliver his Annual Message to Congress in writing.

Written Annual Messages became more commonplace after that. Woodrow Wilson altered that tradition after reigniting the in-person delivery mode in 1913. The Annual Message would later be called the State of the Union under Franklin D. Roosevelt’s administration.

Naturally, technological developments have played a big role in how SOTU addresses were/are pushed out to the public at large.

  • In 1922, at the height of radio’s popularity, Warren Harding gave his SOTU address to a limited US domestic radio audience.
  • In 1923, Calvin Coolidge was able to radio broadcast his State of the Union address across the nation.
  • Harry Truman turned to television broadcast for his SOTU address in 1947.
  • In 1965, Lyndon Johnson gave his televised State of the Union address in the later evening.
  • In 1997, Bill Clinton’s SOTU address was carried live on the Internet.
  • In 2004, George W. Bush gave his State of the Union message through a high-definition television broadcast.

The most recent State of the Union address by Donald Trump in 2019 received 46.79 million viewers through the four major cable networks airing it. Trump’s State of the Union address in 2019 received more views than Obama’s SOTU address in 2011 (42.79 million viewers) and Clinton’s SOTU address in 1995 (42.2 million viewers). However, George W. Bush’s SOTU address in 2003 got 62 million viewers during the invasion of Iraq, making Bush’s the most-watched SOTU address of all time.

Notably, Trump’s 2020 address will have the distinction of being the first to be given while a President is the subject of active impeachment proceedings. Whether this will garner more viewers than his last speech (or Bush’s record-holder) remains to be seen.

What Can I Typically Bet On During a State Of The Union Address?

Typical State of the Union bets made available through licensed sportsbooks include prop bets like the following:

  • “What will the President wear during the SOTU?”
  • “How long will the State of the Union address be?”
  • “What topic will the President discuss first during the SOTU?”
  • “How will those in Congress react to the SOTU?”
  • “What will the rebuttal to the SOTU be based on?”

Though these topics might seem broad, offshore political betting sites will always post specific guidelines to help inform your wagers.

State Of The Union FAQs

If a President serves more than one term, do they deliver the SOTU every year?
Historically, Presidents tend to deliver their State of the Union addresses every year. However, there are Presidents are who have delivered two SOTU addresses in a single year, like George Washington in 1790 on January 8 and then again on December 8.
Are US Presidents required to give a State of the Union address?
No, Presidents are not required to deliver the State of the Union address in person, though a written SOTU is a Constitutional mandate. However, both William Henry Harrison and James A. Garfield did not deliver or write any State of the Union addresses, so this is not a hard and fast rule.
Does Congress affect the SOTU?
The House Speaker has the ability to directly affect the scheduling of the annual State of the Union address. This effect was recently seen during the 2019 government shutdown where the President’s SOTU address had to be rescheduled from January 29 to February 5.
Do State of the Union addresses really affect anything?
While some SOTU addresses typically provide the public with a viewpoint of the nation’s current status and future, SOTU addresses made by the President have been used to rally the public to the President’s agenda. This could be seen during Bush’s SOTU address convincing America of the need to invade Iraq, for example. The import of the State of the Union all depends on the motives and political realities in place at the time of the speech.