2020 Presidential Election Update (11/4): Independent parties, including the Libertarian Party and Green Party, performed poorly in the 2020 general election. LP candidate Jo Jorgensen netted about 1.1% of the popular vote, the Green Party’s Howie Hawkins took about 0.2% of the vote, and Kanye West does better with album sales. In total, independent parties claimed about 1.5% of the total electorate in 2020.
By now, if you’re familiar with American politics and political betting, you’re familiar with the two main parties that get all the action: the Democratic Party and the Republican Party (GOP). However, there are many other parties that don’t get as much national traction, but they are still relevant. Most people call any group not affiliated with Democrats or Republicans “Independent,” and that’s what we mean here. In other words, these are third-party candidates. Usually, most Presidential elections have one or two third-party tickets on the ballot.
However, though “Independent” usually just means “neither Democrat nor Republican,” there is a caveat, because there is a real American Independent Party (AIP), which is a far-right “paleoconstitutional” party founded in 1967 and which is mostly defunct, so it’s important not to confuse the two. Remember: An Independent politician is typically not a member of the American Independent Party, and there are no AIP candidates currently running for President in 2020.
That said, there are plenty of Independent candidates that could make a run in 2020, and though offshore election betting sites have yet to list any, a few names are popping up in the mainstream media, which means that odds could soon be popping up online. If you want to wager on politics and are interested in Independent candidate odds, the next few months should provide you with some very interesting story lines – and betting lines!
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In reality, there is no “Independent party” as such. In US politics, an Independent politician is one that identifies officially as neither Democrat nor Republican. In this way, members of the Libertarian party can be Independents (like former House Rep and three-time Presidential also-ran Ron Paul of Texas), as can avowed Socialist party members like Bernie Sanders, who ran for President in 2020 as a Democrat though he’s always held political office as an Independent.
When you bet on an Independent party candidate, you are effectively betting on a third-party candidate. This is an important distinction because there is an official American Independent Party that can muddy the water – and your bottom line as a bettor.
The American Independent Party (AIP) is a specific political party, established in 1967. This is a rightwing third party, and it has been effectively irrelevant for most of its time in existence, though it still operates today.
The AIP’s sole watershed moment came in 1968 when the party nominated George Wallace, who ran against Richard M. Nixon (R) and Hubert H. Humphrey (D), taking five states in the general election. But that was the height of the party’s relevancy on the national stage, and the AIP will not factor in the 2020 Presidential election.
While you may find many Independent politicians on the betting boards at offshore election gambling sites, you are unlikely to ever find any AIP candidates featured. Again, “Independent party” – for all intents and purposes – simply means “third party.”
Unfortunately, you won’t currently find any independent candidate on the odds boards at the major offshore election betting sites. This is due in large part to such a candidate’s automatic longshot status, but it’s also because most of the third parties have not settled on their nominees as yet.
When they do, you can expect sportsbooks to offer up odds featuring these politicians and activists, and if one catches fire and somehow wins the job of President, you’d probably be able to retire from your job with the massive payout.
Check back here as the November general gets closer to see updated Independent candidate betting odds, as they’ll be posted as soon as they hit the wire.
Right now, there are no declared Independent Presidential candidates running for President in 2020. Of course, this is to be expected, as the “Independent party” is a broad label, and most of these third-party candidates will not declare until much later in the race, since they don’t have to worry about the primary cycle. That’s why on primary election odds boards, you will almost never see third-party politicians listed.
As the general election nears, however, there are a few candidates that could get some press, which means that they should show up at the best political betting sites in some capacity. The following individuals and politicians seem to have the best odds of declaring a run in some way for the 2020 election:
As an Independent and a “Democratic Socialist,” Bernie Sanders has twice run for the Democratic party nomination in Presidential elections, failing both times (2016, 2020). While Sanders has publicly endorsed Joe Biden and vowed not to run third-party, the coronavirus has upended the status quo for the current election, and it’s not out of the question that he’d declare an Independent run once the dust settles. It’s unlikely, but it’s possible, and he’d be by far the most successful such candidate nationally.
Andrew Cuomo, the governor of NY, is second on the Democratic candidate odds boards after Joe Biden. Despite telling the world he isn’t going to run for President in 2020, many believe that he’s getting ready to do exactly that, especially as doubts about Biden’s viability begin to go mainstream. Cuomo is a Democrat through and through, but if he wants to play spoiler or bounce Biden, he might consider a third-party “Independent” run.
Mark Cuban is the most interesting potential candidate, as the Dallas Mavericks owner has recently said that he’s considering a Presidential run. But thanks to his Republican challenger in incumbent Donald Trump, there is not much of a chance that he’d run as a member of the GOP. He could declare as a Democrat, of course, but the most likely outcome if Cuban tosses his hat in the ring would be that he runs third party.
Mike Bloomberg didn’t spend $600 million of his own money for nothing, even though he officially dropped out of the Democratic primary race after just a few months. Bloomberg could resurface as a DNC candidate or third-party spoiler if Joe Biden’s odds continue to slip, particularly if he thinks he could siphon some votes from Trump-supporting centrists.
The list of potential third-party Presidential candidates is as long as the list of existing third parties in the US. However, some of the more prominent third parties and their most popular candidates are listed below, though each would be a longshot to even be included on the betting boards, much less the November ballot.
Yes and no. Technically, George Washington won as an Independent in 1788 and 1792, albeit he was aligned with the Federalist Party of the time. In 1912, Teddy Roosevelt ran as part of the Progressive Party, finishing better than the Republican Party but losing to Woodrow Wilson of the of the Democrat Party. In the modern American system, no third-party candidate has done well in the general election, which is why betting lines on any such politician would be astronomical. While the payout would be amazing and life-changing, there’s virtually no chance that someone other than a Democrat or Republican will win a Presidential race any time soon. Ross Perot was the last Independent to earn more than five percent of the national vote in a Presidential election (1992).
Pretty much nil. It’s never happened, unless you include the campaigns of George Washington, which most historians do not. However, with the Trump presidency and the new reality of America in the age of the coronavirus, anything is possible, and you’re sure to get a massive payout if you bet on an Independent candidate and they actually manage to win.
Simply put, an Independent political party is any US political party other than Democrat or Republican. There are countless Independent parties of varying platforms at the local, state, and national levels, and only a few major candidates of the biggest Independent parties (i.e. Libertarian Party, Green Party) reliably make it onto November Presidential ballots.
The American Independent Party is a rightwing offshoot of the Republican party and was founded in 1967. George Wallace won five states in the 1968 Presidential election under the banner, but the party – though still operational – has not been relevant on the national stage since. The American Independent Party beliefs are too radical for mainstream adoption, and you are unlikely to find an AIP Independent party candidate on the betting boards for the 2020 general election.
The American Independent Party’s main platform is to bring a Christian directive back into US jurisprudence, with a reliance on the US Constitution as written to define the laws of government. In this way, the party is strictly constitutionalist, and it favors family influence over government influence. The AIP is against abortion and believes in a constitutional interpretation of the Second Amendment. Additionally, the party supports secure borders and limited merit-based immigration. To learn more about the AIP and its rebranding as the Independent American Party (IAP), you can check out their homepage here.
For the AIP/IAP, nobody is currently running for President that we’re aware of. This could change any time, of course. For Independent parties in general, there are dozens of candidates looking for their parties’ nominations, the most prominent of which are featured above.
There is no difference between these two, as they are synonymous. By definition, an Independent politician is anyone not affiliated with the two major parties (Democrat and Republican). Similarly, an Independent voter is the same as a No Party Affiliation (NPA) voter.
Yes, at least to a larger degree than they are on the national stage. There are lots of third parties that exist at the state level, many with variations of “independent” in their names. Some of the more popular ones include: • Alaskan Independence Party • Independence Party of New York • Independent Party of Florida • Independent Party of Oregon
Yes. The most famous examples of this in recent history are the two Presidential campaigns of VT Senator Bernie Sanders. Sanders, who holds public office as an Independent (Democratic Socialist), ran for the Democratic ticket in the 2016 and 2020 Presidential elections, losing both times to establishment candidates.