With the current state of political and social unrest, Donald Trump’s resignation odds are on the minds of pundits and bettors alike. Now that his impeachment proceedings are in his rear-view, Trump can focus on his 2020 reelection campaign, but with his handling of the protests regarding unjust police brutality toward African Americans, and is continuing Twitter blunders, odds for his resignation could appear again before November.
It seems like a Trump aide resigns with each news cycle, and the Trump cabinet resignations resemble the famous revolving doors at the ground level of Trump Tower in New York City. Although his staff comes and goes frequently, we speculate that the only way President Trump would leave the Oval Office is if his impeachment odds forecasted a doomed administration. Trump is not likely to voluntarily leave otherwise.
Trump’s resignation odds were featured at several offshore betting sites back in late 2019 when The Donald was facing impeachment, but those fizzled and were ultimately removed from the boards after he was acquitted in the Senate.
Odds on Trump’s resignation are not favorable, but the weather can change quickly in today’s political climate. There will always be plenty of interest from oddsmakers in providing resignation odds going forward, because unless the Republicans secure a majority in the US House, Trump is likely to be impeached again.
With so much heat constantly on the Trump administration, one would think that oddsmakers would have a permanent line on his odds to resign from the Oval Office. This is not the case, however, as oddsmakers have witnessed the determination of President Trump, and don’t feel that the chances are high enough to produce a betting line currently.
Odds for whether President Trump resigns have been featured previously, and have the potential to show up again in this current political climate bursting at the seams with social unrest. Below is a list of our most trusted sportsbooks that are likely to offer Presidential resignation odds in the future.
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Although many in the USA think that Trump should resign, bettors would be wise to not expect a Donald Trump resignation letter any time soon. The President would likely only resign from office if he were facing a severe obstacle he could not get around or voluntarily chooses to leave by relieving himself from the pressure of being in office.
At first, it was thought that his political opposition would wait until after his reelection in the fall of 2020 to renew their efforts to oust him from the Oval Office. Now, his reelection odds are so poor that the American voters may just oust him themselves. The DNC is anxious to hear a Trump resignation speech, but the President knows his base is in-tact. Even if his opposition considers his supporters to be a “basket of deplorables,” they still count as a vote toward his reelection.
A bold prediction from Alan J. Steinberg, a former adviser to Bush and EPA Regional Administrator, was that Donald Trump would likely resign for immunity for both himself and his family as “part of a bargaining chip with federal and state authorities.” However, Steinberg’s prediction was for 2019 and also included prosecution immunity for the Trump Organization from any potential charges. After facing down impeachment without blinking, Steinberg’s hypothesis was soundly rejected by the President.
Another bold prediction came from the actual writer of Trump’s proclaimed self-authored memoir “The Art of the Deal,” Tony Schwartz. Schwartz also predicted Trump’s resignation by the end of 2019: “Trump is going to resign and declare victory before Mueller and Congress leave him no choice…Trump’s Presidency is effectively over.” This also has proven false.
Trump resigning could save him from any future impeachment process, or the President could use his resignation to bargain for a life free from prosecution after leaving the White House (if he actually broke any laws or committed any actual crimes, which has yet to be proven in any way). In 2018, Trump said he had the absolute right to pardon himself, which ruffled some legal feathers despite being technically correct.
While pardoning himself may be off the table, resigning and having Vice President Mike Pence pardon Trump could be another resolution if Trump ever quits his post. However, the main question is, would Pence take the role of the President in exchange for pardoning Trump after he steps down? Does Pence want to adopt the current systems of power and influence Trump has spent the past few years building?
Prediction markets that are enmeshed in the political landscape, such as PredictWise and Predictit, indicate a low likelihood of Trump resigning or being forcibly removed from office through the impeachment process within his first term. In addition, the chance for either of these two things happening during Trump’s second term is also receiving predictions of “not likely.” Current markets have these predictions listed:
These predictors are typically based on different data than what the bookmakers and oddsmakers use to determine the odds for betting on Trump’s resignation, but it’s a good idea to consider the entire range of data at your disposal.
There has been a lot of turnover within the Trump administration during his tenure, so much so that it is difficult to keep track of. Recent resignations include Kirstjen Nielsen as the US Homeland Security Secretary, Linda E. McMahon as the Administrator of Small Business Administration, Rod Rosenstein as Deputy Attorney General for the DOJ, Heather Wilson as the Air Force Secretary, Ron Vitiello as the Acting ICE Director, and Randolph D. Alles as the Director of Secret Service.
More recently, the left has demanded the resignation of South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham for telling the President’s son Donald Trump Jr. to ignore a congressional subpoena, and many in government are now calling for the resignation of US Attorney General William Barr.
Trump’s former United States National Security Advisor, John Bolton, has recently released a best-selling book, “The Room Where It Happened,” that details the ineffectiveness and odd practices of the President and his regime. While these admissions would be quite damning to most administrations, Trump has been able to deflect the accusations through social media platforms, offering harsh words toward Bolton. He also is not afraid to employ all assets available to him in defense of himself, something that likely scares off most detractors.
During the Democrats’ failed impeachment gambit, President Trump demanded House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff resign. The President accused Schiff with knowingly and unlawfully lying and leaking information regarding the Russia and Ukraine investigations, as well as working covertly with the alleged impeachment “whistleblower.” Schiff is a Democratic Representative from California who has served on the House Intelligence Committee since 2017.
No, President Trump did not resign. He is still in office and running for reelection in 2020 against Democratic contender, Joe Biden. The US House of Representatives and its Democratic majority impeached President Trump in 2019, but the following trial in the Senate resulted in an acquittal, an expected result that makes voters question the productivity of the exercise in whole.
Despite the seemingly endless opposition that Trump faces, his support base remains intact and for the most part, approve of his diplomacy and manner. Trump hates a quitter, so it is not likely that he will do so himself, but he has offered conflicting statements before. If Trump were to resign, it would most likely be during his second term.
Yes, wagering on political markets is allowed within the United States if done through licensed and regulated offshore sportsbooks. There are no US gambling laws which state that it is illegal to wager on political events, candidates, or White House administrative outcomes. That said, states with licensed and regulated sports betting currently do not offer political markets, so you must utilize a licensed offshore online sportsbook to bet on politics legally.
Since the odds are not live at the moment, that is impossible to say. The resurfacing of the odds will likely be sparked by a tumultuous event, so it is difficult to gauge what anyone’s winnings would be at this point. When new odds are posted, we will update this section accordingly. Overall, given Trump’s boldness and seeming unwillingness to quit, you’d almost certainly make a mint if he actually were to resign.
Impeached, yes, and probably a few more times if the House stays Democratic in 2020 and Trump wins re-election. But resign? Almost certainly not.
Trump’s already been impeached once, and he easily beat the charges against him. Trump is seen as a President with “pride,” though some of his critics refer to this quality as “egotistic,” and that means he’s unlikely to just throw in the towel without a fight.
If President Trump were to resign, it would likely be the result of a legal strategy. Some have predicted that his resignation would accompany a declaration of victory, with Trump spinning it as a pat on the back for a job well done. This is entirely speculative, but we also think there is a high possibility that this resignation would occur at a rally, jam-packed with supporters.
If Trump resigns from office, Vice President Mike Pence would become the next President of the United States and would complete the current term. The new President would then need to appoint a Vice President to serve under him. If for some reason, both Trump and Pence resigned at the same time, Speaker of the US House Nancy Pelosi would become the President.
One US President has resigned from office: Richard Nixon. Nixon resigned in 1974 halfway through his second term as POTUS. Nixon left office voluntarily to avoid facing his impeachment trial regarding the Watergate Scandal.
The 2020 Presidential election will be held on November 3. Joe Biden and Donald J. Trump will face off to determine the next President of the USA. The two candidate’s ideologies are on opposite ends of the political spectrum, so if Biden were to win, that would represent a significant departure from the current regime’s plan of action. Despite the huge differences between the two of them, they share four very significant demographic characteristics. They are both wealthy, male Caucasians of advanced age.