With the recent surge of investigations and administrative resignations, we felt it was appropriate to review Donald Trump’s Resignation Odds. Trump’s resignation odds do not necessarily equate to the President’s likelihood to leave office but rather how sportsbooks feel about those chances and how bettors are responding to current odds.
We speculate that the only way President Trump would leave the Oval Office is if his impeachment odds showed a doomed administration or he’s actually voted out. Trump is not likely to voluntarily leave otherwise.
However, odds for President Trump’s resignation have shifted since the reveal of the Mueller Report and the “Ukraine Phone Call,” the pending reveal of his recent tax returns, and the subpoena of his closest allies and son. Therefore, the likeliness for his resignation has increased. There is more interest from oddsmakers in providing these odds and more investment from bettors looking to get in on the action.
The political climate surrounding the current administration propels bookmakers to release resignation odds for the current POTUS. Odds on the President’s resignation have been scattered at best, leaving bettors looking for odds when they become available. Below are the most trusted sportsbooks that currently offer Presidential resignation odds.
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As mentioned above, Trump would likely only resign from office if he was facing a severe obstacle he could not get around or voluntarily chooses to leave by relieving himself from the pressure of being in office. Throughout the President’s duration in office, he has blocked specific reports and information from being released to his colleagues.
Now, many voters are asking the question, “Will Trump resign in his first term before 2020?” Trump’s 2020 re-election campaign is still active and he still seeks to win the 2020 Republican nomination, with the President making many appearances and engaging with the public and media, even if some of these engagements are over Twitter, his favorite platform. For this reason, many Trump supporters and even critics assume Trump will make it to a second term and win the 2020 Presidential Election.
However, some of these critics predict that Trump will be ousted after the upcoming 2020 general election or that he will be forced to resign in his second term. Some politicians have extended a “helping hand” for the POTUS to end it now and resign. This was the advice given by former-Secretary of State John Kerry (D), though Trump did not heed it.
A bold prediction from Alan J. Steinberg, a former adviser to Bush and EPA Regional Administrator, says that Donald Trump would likely resign for immunity for both himself and his family as “part of a bargaining chip with federal and state authorities.” However, Steinberg’s prediction is set for 2019 and also includes prosecution immunity for the Trump Organization from any potential charges. This seems far-fetched.
Another bold prediction comes from the actual writer of Trump’s proclaimed self-authored memoir “The Art of the Deal,” Tony Schwartz. Schwartz also predicts Trump’s resignation by the end of 2019: “Trump is going to resign and declare victory before Mueller and Congress leave him no choice…Trump’s Presidency is effectively over.” This has proven false.
Trump resigning could effectively save him from the impeachment process, or the President could use his resignation to bargain for a life free from prosecution after leaving the White House (if he actually broke any laws or committed any actual crimes, which has yet to be proved in any way). In 2018, Trump said he had the absolute right to pardon himself, which ruffled some legal feathers.
While pardoning himself may be off the table, resigning and having Vice President Mike Pence pardon Trump could be another resolution. However, the main question is, would Pence take the role of the President in exchange for pardoning Trump after he steps down? Does Pence want to adopt the current systems of power and influence Trump has spent the past few years building?
Prediction markets that are enmeshed in the political landscape, such as PredictWise and Predictit, indicate a low likelihood of Trump resigning or being forcibly removed from office through the impeachment process within his first term. In addition, the chance for either of these two things happening during Trump’s second term is also receiving predictions of “not likely.” Current markets have these predictions listed:
These predictors are typically based on different data than what the bookmakers and oddsmakers use to determine the odds for betting on Trump’s resignation, but it’s a good idea to consider the entire range of data at your disposal.
As of mid-2019, many within the Trump administration have resigned. Recent resignations include Kirstjen Nielsen as the US Homeland Security Secretary, Linda E. McMahon as the Administrator of Small Business Administration, Rod Rosenstein as Deputy Attorney General for the DOJ, Heather Wilson as the Air Force Secretary, Ron Vitiello as the Acting ICE Director, and Randolph D. Alles as the Director of Secret Service. More recently, the left has demanded the resignation of South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham for telling the President’s son Donald Trump Jr. to ignore a congressional subpoena.
In a recent Twitter tirade, President Trump demanded House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff resign. The President accused Schiff with knowingly and unlawfully lying and leaking information regarding the Russia and Ukraine investigations. Schiff is a Democratic Representative from California who has served on the House Intelligence Committee since 2017.
Yes, wagering on political markets is allowed within the United States if done through licensed and regulated offshore sportsbooks. There are no US gambling laws which state that it is illegal to wager on political events, candidates, or White House administrative outcomes. That said, states with licensed and regulated sports betting currently do not offer political markets, so you must utilize a licensed offshore online sportsbook to bet on politics legally.
Since the odds are not live at the moment, that is impossible to say. The resurfacing of the odds will likely be sparked by a tumultuous event, so it is difficult to gauge what anyone’s winnings would be at this point. When new odds are posted, we will update this section accordingly.
It is more likely that Donald Trump will resign as President rather than undergo the impeachment process, though neither is all that likely right now. Trump is seen as a President with “pride,” while some of his critics refer to this quality as his “ego”. Therefore, if more substantial evidence appears regarding the President’s involvement in any crimes or any meddling related to Russia/Ukraine, there could be an increase in Trump’s odds to resign.
One US President has resigned from office: Richard Nixon. Nixon resigned in 1974 halfway through his second term as POTUS. Nixon left office voluntarily to avoid facing his impeachment trial regarding the Watergate Scandal.
The 2020 Presidential election will be held on November 3. As we near the 2020 election, Trump resignation odds will increase in popularity, though the odds themselves will likely go down, as Democrats fear that the specter of impeachment could actually galvanize undecided voters to cast their ballots in Trump’s favor in 2020.