With the recent surge of investigations and administrative resignations, we felt it was appropriate to review Donald Trump’s Resignation Odds. Trump resignation odds do not necessarily equate to the President’s likelihood to leave office but rather how sportsbooks feel about the chances and how bettors are responding to current odds.
We speculate that the only way President trump would leave the oval office is if he was pending a severe investigation, odds for Trump facing the impeachment process increase, or if the President voluntarily decided to step down.
However, odds for President Trump’s resignation have shifted since the reveal of the Mueller Report, the pending reveal of his recent tax returns, and the subpoena of his closest allies and son. Therefore, the likeliness for his resignation has increased. There is more interest from oddsmakers in providing these odds and more investment from bettors on getting in on the action.
While specific odds for Trump’s resignation are not posted at the moment, there are other political odds you can consider wagering on at the sportsbooks you see below. Once the odds for Trump’s resignation are posted at the bookmakers, we will provide that information here. In the meantime, feel free to look at other political betting lines and prop bets.
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As mentioned above, Trump would likely only resign from office if he was facing a severe obstacle he could not get around or voluntarily chooses to leave by relieving himself from the pressure of being in office. Throughout the President’s duration in office, he has blocked specific reports and information from being released to his colleagues.
Now many voters are asking the question, “Will Trump resign in his first term before 2020?”. Trump’s 2020 re-election campaign is still active and he still seeks to win the 2020 Republican nomination, with the President making many appearances and engaging with the public and media, even if some of these engagements are over tweets. For this reason, many Trump supporters and even critics assume Trump will make it to a second term and win the 2020 Presidential Election.
However, some of these critics predict that Trump will be ousted after the upcoming Elections, and will be forced to resign in his second term. Some politicians have extended a helping hand for President Donald Trump to end it now and resign. This was the advice given by former-Secretary of State John Kerry to Donald Trump.
It is likely Donald Trump would resign in exchange for a pardon or immunity for himself, and/or his family. A bold prediction from Alan J. Steinberg, a former advisor to Bush and EPA Regional Administrator says that Trump would likely resign for immunity for both him and his family as “part of a bargaining chip with federal and state authorities.” However, Steinberg’s prediction is set for 2019 and also includes prosecution immunity for the Trump Organization from any potential charges.
Another bold prediction comes from the actual writer of Trump’s proclaimed self-authored memoir the Art of the Deal, Tony Schwartz. Schwartz also predicts Trump’s resignation by the end of 2019, “Trump is going to resign and declare victory before Mueller, and Congress leave him no choice…Trump’s Presidency is effectively over.”
Trump resigning could effectively save him from the impeachment process, or the President could use his resignation to bargain for a life free from prosecution after leaving the White House. In 2018, Trump said he had the absolute right to pardon himself, which ruffled some legal feathers. However, it seems the idea of the President pardoning himself is now moot since Michael Cohen, Trump’s lawyer, admitted to conspiring to commit a crime, taping Trump’s directions to violate campaign finance laws, and took a guilty plea.
While pardoning himself may be off the table, resigning and having Vice President Mike Pence pardon Trump could be another resolution. However, the main question is, would Pence take the role of the President in exchange for pardoning Trump after he steps down? Does Pence want to adopt the current systems of power and influence Trump has spent the past few years building?
Prediction markets that are enmeshed in the political landscape, such as PredictWise and Predictit, indicate a low likelihood of Trump resigning or being forcibly removed from office through the impeachment process within his first term. In addition, the chance for either of these two things happening during Trump’s second term is also receiving predictions of not likely. Current markets have these predictions listed:
These predictors are typically based on different data than what the bookmakers and oddsmakers use to determine the odds for betting on Trump’s resignation, but its a good idea to consider the entire range of data at your disposal.
As of mid-2019, many within the Trump administration have resigned. Recent resignations include Kirstjen Nielsen as the US Homeland Security Secretary, Linda E. McMahon as the Administrator of Small Business Administration, Rod Rosenstein as Deputy Attorney General for the DOJ, Heather Wilson as the Air Force Secretary, Ron Vitiello as the Acting ICE Director, and Randolph D. Alles as the Director of Secret Service. Now the public has demanded the resignation of Press Secretary Sarah Sanders for lying on behalf of the President in the Mueller investigation and South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham for telling the President’s son Donald Trump Jr. to ignore a congressional subpoena.
In a recent Twitter tirade, President Trump demanded House Intelligence Committee Chairman, Adam Schiff resign. The President accused Schiff with knowingly and unlawfully lying and leaking information regarding the Russia investigation. Schiff is a Democratic Representative from California who has served on the House Intelligence Committee since 2017 and the claims Trump have made against the Representative have no base in fact.
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Since the odds are not live at the moment, that is impossible to say. The resurfacing of the odds will likely be sparked by a tumultuous event, so it is impossible to say what anyone’s winnings would be at this point. When new odds are posted, we will update this section accordingly.
It is more likely that Donald Trump will resign as President rather than undergo the impeachment process. Trump is seen as a President with “pride,” while some of his critics refer to this quality as his “ego”. Therefore, if more substantial evidence appears regarding the President’s involvement in any crimes or any meddling related to Russia, there could be an increase in Trump’s odds to resign. It is speculated that President Trump would favor a resignation for pardoning or immunity in order to avoid the embarrassment of a potential impeachment trial against the 45th US President.
One US President has resigned from office, that President was Richard Nixon. Nixon resigned from office in 1974 halfway through his 2nd term. Nixon resigned to avoid facing his impeachment trial regarding the Watergate Scandal.
The 2020 Presidential election will be held November 3rd. Likely as we near the 2020 Elections, Trump resignation odds will increase in popularity.