With the recent surge of investigations and administrative resignations, we felt it was appropriate to review Donald Trump’s Resignation Odds. Trump’s resignation odds do not necessarily equate to the President’s likelihood to leave office but rather how sportsbooks feel about those chances and how bettors are responding to current odds.
We speculate that the only way President Trump would leave the Oval Office is if his impeachment odds showed a doomed administration or he’s actually voted out. Trump is not likely to voluntarily leave otherwise.
Trump resignation was actually featured at several offshore betting sites back in late 2019 when The Donald was facing impeachment, but those fizzled and were ultimately removed from the boards after Trump was acquitted in the Senate. Now more than ever, odds on Trump resignation are very long indeed. Still, there will always be plenty of interest from oddsmakers in providing resignation odds going forward, because something tells us Trump is probably going to be impeached again (and again, and again…).
The political climate surrounding the current administration propels bookmakers to release resignation odds for the current POTUS. Odds on the President’s resignation have been scattered at best, leaving bettors looking for lines when they become available. Below are the most trusted sportsbooks that are likely to offer Presidential resignation odds in the future.
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As mentioned above, Trump would likely only resign from office if he were facing a severe obstacle he could not get around or voluntarily chooses to leave by relieving himself from the pressure of being in office.
Now, many voters are asking the question, “Will Trump resign in his first term before 2020?” Trump’s 2020 re-election campaign is still active and he still seeks to win the 2020 Republican nomination, with the President making many appearances and engaging with the public and media, even if some of these engagements are over Twitter, his favorite platform. For this reason, many Trump supporters and even critics assume Trump will make it to a second term and win the 2020 Presidential Election.
However, some of these critics predict that Trump will be ousted after the upcoming 2020 general election or that he will be forced to resign in his second term. Some politicians have extended a “helping hand” for the POTUS to end it now and resign. This was the advice given by former-Secretary of State John Kerry (D), though Trump did not heed it. Political prop bets including resignation odds can be found online at any of the sportsbooks listed in the table above.
A bold prediction from Alan J. Steinberg, a former adviser to Bush and EPA Regional Administrator, was that Donald Trump would likely resign for immunity for both himself and his family as “part of a bargaining chip with federal and state authorities.” However, Steinberg’s prediction was for 2019 and also included prosecution immunity for the Trump Organization from any potential charges. After facing down impeachment without blinking, Steinberg’s hypothesis was soundly rejected by the President.
Another bold prediction came from the actual writer of Trump’s proclaimed self-authored memoir “The Art of the Deal,” Tony Schwartz. Schwartz also predicted Trump’s resignation by the end of 2019: “Trump is going to resign and declare victory before Mueller and Congress leave him no choice…Trump’s Presidency is effectively over.” This also has proven false.
Trump resigning could effectively save him from any future impeachment process, or the President could use his resignation to bargain for a life free from prosecution after leaving the White House (if he actually broke any laws or committed any actual crimes, which has yet to be proved in any way). In 2018, Trump said he had the absolute right to pardon himself, which ruffled some legal feathers despite being technically correct.
While pardoning himself may be off the table, resigning and having Vice President Mike Pence pardon Trump could be another resolution if Trump ever quits his post. However, the main question is, would Pence take the role of the President in exchange for pardoning Trump after he steps down? Does Pence want to adopt the current systems of power and influence Trump has spent the past few years building?
Prediction markets that are enmeshed in the political landscape, such as PredictWise and Predictit, indicate a low likelihood of Trump resigning or being forcibly removed from office through the impeachment process within his first term. In addition, the chance for either of these two things happening during Trump’s second term is also receiving predictions of “not likely.” Current markets have these predictions listed:
These predictors are typically based on different data than what the bookmakers and oddsmakers use to determine the odds for betting on Trump’s resignation, but it’s a good idea to consider the entire range of data at your disposal.
As of the end of 2019, many within the Trump administration have resigned. Recent resignations include Kirstjen Nielsen as the US Homeland Security Secretary, Linda E. McMahon as the Administrator of Small Business Administration, Rod Rosenstein as Deputy Attorney General for the DOJ, Heather Wilson as the Air Force Secretary, Ron Vitiello as the Acting ICE Director, and Randolph D. Alles as the Director of Secret Service.
More recently, the left has demanded the resignation of South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham for telling the President’s son Donald Trump Jr. to ignore a congressional subpoena, and many in government are now calling for the resignation of US Attorney General William Barr.
During the Democrats’ failed impeachment gambit, President Trump demanded House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff resign. The President accused Schiff with knowingly and unlawfully lying and leaking information regarding the Russia and Ukraine investigations, as well as working covertly with the alleged impeachment “whistleblower.” Schiff is a Democratic Representative from California who has served on the House Intelligence Committee since 2017.
Yes, wagering on political markets is allowed within the United States if done through licensed and regulated offshore sportsbooks. There are no US gambling laws which state that it is illegal to wager on political events, candidates, or White House administrative outcomes. That said, states with licensed and regulated sports betting currently do not offer political markets, so you must utilize a licensed offshore online sportsbook to bet on politics legally.
Since the odds are not live at the moment, that is impossible to say. The resurfacing of the odds will likely be sparked by a tumultuous event, so it is difficult to gauge what anyone’s winnings would be at this point. When new odds are posted, we will update this section accordingly. Overall, given Trump’s boldness and seeming unwillingness to quit, you’d almost certainly make a mint if he actually were to resign.
Impeached, yes, and probably a few more times if the House stays Democratic in 2020 and Trump wins re-election. But resign? Almost certainly not.
Trump’s already been impeached once, and he easily beat the charges against him. Trump is seen as a President with “pride,” though some of his critics refer to this quality as “egotistic,” and that means he’s unlikely to just throw in the towel without a fight.
One US President has resigned from office: Richard Nixon. Nixon resigned in 1974 halfway through his second term as POTUS. Nixon left office voluntarily to avoid facing his impeachment trial regarding the Watergate Scandal.
The 2020 Presidential election will be held on November 3. As we near the 2020 election, Trump resignation odds may increase in popularity, though the odds themselves will likely go down, as Democrats fear that the reality of a defeated impeachment will actually galvanize undecided voters to cast their ballots in Trump’s favor in 2020.