Odds For US President Donald Trump’s Resignation

Odds For US President Donald Trump’s Resignation

Donald Trump Resignation Odds

Trump-thumbs-up

With the recent surge of investigations and administrative resignations, we felt it was appropriate to review Donald Trump’s Resignation Odds. Trump resignation odds do not necessarily equate to the President’s likelihood to leave office but rather how sportsbooks feel about those chances and how bettors are responding to current odds.

We speculate that the only ways President Trump would leave the Oval Office is if his impeachment odds showed a doomed administration or he’s actually voted out. Trump is not likely to voluntarily leave otherwise.

However, odds for President Trump’s resignation have shifted since the reveal of the Mueller Report and the “Ukraine Phone Call,” the pending reveal of his recent tax returns, and the subpoena of his closest allies and son. Therefore, the likeliness for his resignation has increased. There is more interest from oddsmakers in providing these odds and more investment from bettors looking to get in on the action.

US Sportsbooks With Trump Resignation Odds

While specific odds for Trump’s resignation are not posted at the moment, there are other political odds you can consider wagering on at the sportsbooks you see below.  Once the odds for Trump’s resignation are posted at the bookmakers, we will provide that information here.  In the meantime, feel free to look at other political betting lines and prop bets.

SportsbookBonusRatingUSAVisit SiteReview
Bovada Sportsbook Logo50% Max $2505 Star RatingUSA FriendlyVisit SiteReview
Betonline Sportsbook Logo50% Max $1,0004 Star RatingUSA FriendlyVisit SiteReview
MyBookie table logo50% Max $1,0004 Star RatingUSA FriendlyVisit SiteReview
bookmaker logo100% Max $3004 Star RatingUSA FriendlyVisit SiteReview

Will Trump Resign?

As mentioned above, Trump would likely only resign from office if he was facing a severe obstacle he could not get around or voluntarily chooses to leave by relieving himself from the pressure of being in office. Throughout the President’s duration in office, he has blocked specific reports and information from being released to his colleagues.

Now, many voters are asking the question, “Will Trump resign in his first term before 2020?” Trump’s 2020 re-election campaign is still active and he still seeks to win the 2020 Republican nomination, with the President making many appearances and engaging with the public and media, even if some of these engagements are over Twitter, his favorite platform. For this reason, many Trump supporters and even critics assume Trump will make it to a second term and win the 2020 Presidential Election.

However, some of these critics predict that Trump will be ousted after the upcoming 2020 general election or that he will be forced to resign in his second term. Some politicians have extended a “helping hand” for the POTUS to end it now and resign. This was the advice given by former-Secretary of State John Kerry (D), though Trump did not heed it.

Donald Trump Resignation Odds (MyBookie)
No: -9000
Yes: +1200
Donald Trump Resignation Odds (BetOnline)
No: TBA
Yes: TBA
Donald Trump Resignation Odds (Bovada)
No: TBA
Yes: TBA

Trump Resignation Predictions

A bold prediction from Alan J. Steinberg, a former adviser to Bush and EPA Regional Administrator, says that Donald Trump would likely resign for immunity for both himself and his family as “part of a bargaining chip with federal and state authorities.” However, Steinberg’s prediction is set for 2019 and also includes prosecution immunity for the Trump Organization from any potential charges. This seems far-fetched.

Another bold prediction comes from the actual writer of Trump’s proclaimed self-authored memoir “The Art of the Deal,” Tony Schwartz. Schwartz also predicts Trump’s resignation by the end of 2019: “Trump is going to resign and declare victory before Mueller and Congress leave him no choice…Trump’s Presidency is effectively over.” This has proven false.

Trump resigning could effectively save him from the impeachment process, or the President could use his resignation to bargain for a life free from prosecution after leaving the White House (if he actually broke any laws or committed any actual crimes, which has yet to be proved in any way). In 2018, Trump said he had the absolute right to pardon himself, which ruffled some legal feathers.

While pardoning himself may be off the table, resigning and having Vice President Mike Pence pardon Trump could be another resolution. However, the main question is, would Pence take the role of the President in exchange for pardoning Trump after he steps down? Does Pence want to adopt the current systems of power and influence Trump has spent the past few years building?

Trump’s Chance Of Resignation According To Prediction Markets

Prediction markets that are enmeshed in the political landscape, such as PredictWise and Predictit, indicate a low likelihood of Trump resigning or being forcibly removed from office through the impeachment process within his first term.  In addition, the chance for either of these two things happening during Trump’s second term is also receiving predictions of “not likely.”  Current markets have these predictions listed:

  • Trump finishing first term: 89% chance
  • Trump leaves office in 2019:  7% chance
  • Trump leaves office 2020 – 1/20/2021:  4% chance

These predictors are typically based on different data than what the bookmakers and oddsmakers use to determine the odds for betting on Trump’s resignation, but it’s a good idea to consider the entire range of data at your disposal.

Trump Administration Resignation List

As of mid-2019, many within the Trump administration have resigned. Recent resignations include Kirstjen Nielsen as the US Homeland Security Secretary, Linda E. McMahon as the Administrator of Small Business Administration, Rod Rosenstein as Deputy Attorney General for the DOJ, Heather Wilson as the Air Force Secretary, Ron Vitiello as the Acting ICE Director, and Randolph D. Alles as the Director of Secret Service. More recently, the left has demanded the resignation of South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham for telling the President’s son Donald Trump Jr. to ignore a congressional subpoena.

Trump Is Demanding Resignations

In a recent Twitter tirade, President Trump demanded House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff resign. The President accused Schiff with knowingly and unlawfully lying and leaking information regarding the Russia and Ukraine investigations. Schiff is a Democratic Representative from California who has served on the House Intelligence Committee since 2017.

Presidential Resignation FAQs

Can I Legally Bet On Trump Resignation Odds?

Yes, wagering on political markets is allowed within the United States if done through licensed and regulated offshore sportsbooks. There are no US gambling laws which state that it is illegal to wager on political events, candidates, or White House administrative outcomes. That said, states with licensed and regulated sports betting currently do not offer political markets, so you must utilize a licensed offshore online sportsbook to bet on politics legally.

How Much Money Will I Win if Trump Resigns or is Impeached?

Since the odds are not live at the moment, that is impossible to say.  The resurfacing of the odds will likely be sparked by a tumultuous event, so it is difficult to gauge what anyone’s winnings would be at this point.  When new odds are posted, we will update this section accordingly.

Will Trump Resign or Be Impeached?

It is more likely that Donald Trump will resign as President rather than undergo the impeachment process, though neither is all that likely right now. Trump is seen as a President with “pride,” while some of his critics refer to this quality as his “ego”. Therefore, if more substantial evidence appears regarding the President’s involvement in any crimes or any meddling related to Russia/Ukraine, there could be an increase in Trump’s odds to resign.

How Many US Presidents Have Resigned?

One US President has resigned from office: Richard Nixon. Nixon resigned in 1974 halfway through his second term as POTUS. Nixon left office voluntarily to avoid facing his impeachment trial regarding the Watergate Scandal.

When Is The 2020 Election?

The 2020 Presidential election will be held on November 3. As we near the 2020 election, Trump resignation odds will increase in popularity, though the odds themselves will likely go down, as Democrats fear that the specter of impeachment could actually galvanize undecided voters to cast their ballots in Trump’s favor in 2020.