Political News Blog Political News Blog Who has the best chance to beat Trump in 2020?
Trump vs Democrats

Who has the best chance to beat Trump in 2020?

Of the 23 Democrats seeking the party’s nomination, only one will face incumbent Republican President Donald Trump on Tuesday, November 3 during the 2020 US presidential election.

So, this begs the question: Who has the best chance of beating Trump in 2020?

To answer this, we’ll examine how the betting odds for each of the Democratic candidates have changed since 2019 began and whether their chances have gone up▲ or down▼ over that time.

We have tracked the 2020 odds for all presidential candidates since the start of the year (indicated by “Then”), and the current odds (or “Now”) — taken on May 24 — can be found at Bovada Sportsbook.

How Public Money Influences The 2020 Odds

Before breaking down the chances for each candidate, let’s run down how money wagered by the public can affect the 2020 odds.

  • When enough public money is placed on a betting line for a candidate, oddsmakers will shift value away from that person by changing the odds from a “less likely” to “more likely” number which results in a less favorable payout for the bettor.
  • Take this example: Candidate A is favored at -150 ($150 bet wins $100) — which has a 58.26% implied probability or “chance to win” — and Candidate B is the underdog at +130 ($100 bet wins $130) and has a 41.74% chance to win.
  • But after Candidate A did something that the American public didn’t like, money was then bet on the odds for Candidate B, which caused Candidate B to become the favorite at -200 (64.82% chance) while Candidate A fell to +170 (35.18% chance).
  • The odds for a candidate will continue to fluctuate up and down until either the betting market consensus determines there is no more value at the current time or the outcome becomes known, and all bets are won or lost.

This is why the betting odds board at online sportsbooks can be one of the best prediction markets you’ll find anywhere. How the public views a candidate at any point in time or on a specific issue can be seen in real-time based solely on which candidate is receiving the most money after the odds have been posted.

Essentially, it’s like the old saying, “Put your money where your mouth is.”

2020 Betting Odds For President Donald Trump

Before we weigh each of the Democrats chances of beating Trump, we need to look at the odds for Trump himself and determine if his chances are rising or falling.

Donald Trump

  • Now: +110 (47.62%)
  • Then: +150 (40.00%)
  • % Change: ▲+7.62%
  • Trump has been favored to win re-election since the start of the year and his chances of winning have continued to rise in 2019. This is likely due to two factors: 1) We’re slowly getting closer to the election and incumbents always have an edge and 2) The public money does not believe he will be impeached, which gives him a clear path to be on the ballot as the Republican nominee when the 2020 election rolls around whereas the Democratic nomination is much more uncertain.

Top 5 Democrats With The Best Chance To Beat Trump

We’ll rank each Democrat based on their current odds, display whether their chances have been going up or down since January 1, 2019, and provide some insight into the top 5 most likely Trump challengers. Some candidates didn’t have odds to start the year — or currently don’t have odds at all — and we’ll indicate when that’s the case.

1. Joe Biden

  • Now: +400 (20.00%)
  • Then: +1400 (6.67%)
  • % Change: ▲+13.33%
  • The former Vice President saw his odds skyrocket after he officially made his announcement in late April. Biden is now not only the Democratic favorite but public money has also made him the biggest riser on the board since 2019 began. His national recognition and huge favorability Rust Belt — where Trump won big in 2016 — makes Biden the biggest threat to Trump’s re-election bid.

2. Bernie Sanders

  • Now: +700 (12.50%)
  • Then: +1400 (6.67%)
  • % Change: ▲+5.83%
  • Sen. Bernie Sanders comes second and is not far behind Biden. The Vermont US senator gained national attention in 2016 for his Democratic Socialism platform and became Hillary Clinton’s biggest challenger for the party’s nomination. This time, the public knows who Bernie is, which is why he’s received more first-quarter donations than any other Democratic candidate.

3. Kamala Harris

  • Now: +1200 (7.69%)
  • Then: +1000 (9.09%)
  • % Change: ▼-1.40%
  • Sen. Kamala Harris of California was tied for the top spot among Democratic hopefuls at the start of the year, and while she’s slipped by a small margin since January, it’s rather negligible. One of her policy proposals is aimed at closing the gender pay gap, and if she does it all, she’ll become the first woman to be elected president. To do that, she’ll need to come out swinging at the debates next month to reverse the current trend.

4. Pete Buttigieg

  • Now: +1200 (7.69%)
  • Then: +6600 (1.49%)*
  • % Change: ▲+6.20%
  • *Odds first listed in March
  • A case could be made that no Democrat is getting as much media attention as Pete Buttigieg is receiving at the moment. The mayor of South Bend has an impressive resume that includes graduating from Harvard and Oxford and serving as an intelligence officer — and deploying in Afghanistan — in the Navy from 2009 to 2017. Mayor Pete is the first openly gay presidential candidate for the Democratic Party and could be the first to win the White House.

5. Elizabeth Warren

  • Now: +2000 (4.76%)
  • Then: +1500 (6.25%)
  • % Change: ▼-1.49%
  • Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts has been on quite a rollercoaster since announcing her exploratory committee on New Year’s Eve. She was one of the favorites before it was revealed she’d claimed to be an “American Indian” on a 1986 Texas State Bar registration. Her odds plummeted soon after, but she’s rebounded after proposing numerous policies to solve the opioid epidemic, student loan debt, housing prices, and early education. Most national polls have Warren in third place among Democrats, and she’ll make her case to be elected as the first woman president when the first debate is held in late June.

The Rest Of The Democratic Field

The following candidates have odds that fall just outside the top 5 most likely Democrats to beat Donald Trump. Andrew Yang narrowly missed the cut, but we think his odds will get a boost when he takes the debate stage. The same is likely true for Tulsi Gabbard and Amy Klobuchar. However, Beto, Booker, and Gillibrand are falling fast will need to come up with some way to stop the ship from sinking.

Andrew Yang

  • Now: +2200 (4.35%)
  • Then: +5000 (1.96%)
  • % Change: ▲+2.40%
  • *Odds first listed in February

Beto O’Rourke

  • Now: +3300 (2.94%)
  • Then: +1000 (9.09%)
  • % Change: ▼-6.05%

Tulsi Gabbard

  • Now: +4000 (2.44%)
  • Then: +6600 (1.49%)
  • % Change: ▲+0.95%

Cory Booker

  • Now: +5500 (1.79%)
  • Then: +2000 (4.76%)
  • % Change: ▼-2.97%

Amy Klobuchar

  • Now: +6600 (1.49%)
  • Then: +3000 (3.23%)
  • % Change: ▼-1.74%

Kirsten Gillibrand

  • Now: +7000 (1.41%)
  • Then: +3000 (3.23%)
  • % Change: ▼-1.82%

John Hickenlooper

  • Now: +10000 (0.99%)
  • Then: +6600 (1.49%)
  • % Change: ▼-0.5%

Julian Castro

  • Now: +10000 (0.99%)
  • Then: +6000 (1.64%)
  • % Change: ▼-0.65

Declared 2020 Candidates With No Odds

The following 2020 Democratic candidates — and one Republican candidate — have not had any betting odds listed at any point during 2019. Oddsmakers likely believe their chances to be astronomically low, but we will continue to monitor the board throughout 2019 and into 2020.

  • Bill Weld (R)
  • Bill De Blasio
  • Wayne Messam
  • Seth Moulton
  • Eric Swalwell
  • Marianne Williamson
  • Michael Bennet
  • John Delaney
  • Tim Ryan
  • Jay Inslee
  • Steve Bullock

Comments are disabled.

/* ]]> */