Democratic candidate field could be cut in half by the third debate in September
Based on current metrics, 21 candidates have qualified for the July 30-31 Democratic debate in Detroit, Michigan. For now, candidates only need to surpass 65,000 unique donors or earn 1% in three separate polls.
For the third debate September 12-13, however, candidates need to earn 130,000 donors with 400 coming from 20 different states.
If those were the requirements for the Detroit debate, only six candidates would be on the stage.
The surging Mayor Pete Buttigieg (+1000) has 400,000 donors since his campaign announcement in January.
The New York Post reports that Rep. Beto O’Rourke (+3500), Sens. Bernie Sanders (+1000), Kamala Harris (+500), and Elizabeth Warren (+750) all meet the necessary criteria for September.
Tech entrepreneur Andrew Yang (+2000) also surpassed the 130,000-donor mark, although it is unclear if he meets the 20-state requirement.
Sen. Cory Booker (+7000) started this week with around 110,000 donors. After an impressive performance at the first Democratic debate, Booker should be able to secure 130,000 donors for September.
Earning 130,000 is only half the battle for the Democratic candidates. To qualify for the September debates, candidates must also reach 2% in four polls by August 28.
According to the Quinnipiac University Poll released on July 2, Biden sits at 22%, his lowest of the race so far, Harris at 20%, Warren at 14%, and Sanders at 13%.
Buttigieg received 4% and Booker got another 3% in the same poll.
With three more weeks until the next debate, Democrats have plenty of opportunities to boost their numbers.
As for the incumbent’s poll numbers, figures differ when it comes to his approval rating.
In a recent Gallup poll, President Donald Trump’s approval rating was 41%.
However, Trump (+100) referenced another poll via Twitter that had his chances of winning reelection at 54%, possibly mistaking it for his approval rating.
54% in Poll! I would be at 75% (with our great economy, maybe the best ever) if not for the Phony Witch Hunt and the Fake News Media!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 28, 2019
Trump still tops the 2020 election chances with even odds. Harris is second at +500.
2020 Presidential Election Odds @ Bovada
- Donald Trump +100
- Kamala Harris +500
- Joe Biden +550
- Elizabeth Warren +750
- Bernie Sanders +1000
- Pete Buttigieg +1000
- Andrew Yang +2000
- Beto O’Rourke +3500
- Tulsi Gabbard +4000
- Amy Klobuchar +7000
- Cory Booker +7000