Odds On Key US Senate Races Predict Potential Blue Wave For DNC
The election ticks closer and closer, and now more than ever, the country faces the possibility of a structural shift in power.
Joe Biden is not only poised to win the election by popular vote and electoral college votes, but the Democrats also lead in US House and US Senate polls.
Many sportsbooks have posted lines on the odds of a full Democratic sweep. The US Senate currently comprises 53 Republicans, and 45 Democrats, and two independents that caucus with the Democrats.
The Democratic Party needs to win four seats for a 51-senator majority. Moreover, if Biden wins, Kamala will serve as Senate President and decide tie-breaker votes.
Many on the right, including President Trump, fear the “blue wave” will engulf, and subsequently drown, the United States.
However, the tense US Senate races, especially swing state odds, create ample opportunities for political betting. Below, we look at some contentious senate races and consider their political and social implications.
Alabama Senate Race
- Tommy Tuberville -750
- Doug Jones +450
Doug Jones (D) rose to popularity after prosecuting four white supremacists after bombing a church and killing four girls in Birmingham, AL, in 1963. He defeated Roy Moore in 2017 in a 2017 special election to replace Jeff Sessions.
Tuberville (R) is a political newcomer and former football coach for Auburn University and the University of Cincinnati. With a Trump endorsement, he leads by a substantial margin.
Arizona Senate Race
- Mark Kelly -550
- Martha McSally +325
This race-winner decides who completes the final two years of the late Sen. John McCain’s 6-year term. Mark Kelly (D) holds the lead in the polls, mostly with voters less than 50 years old.
Independents also favor Kelly, believing he is less beholden to the left than McSally is beholden to the right.
Colorado Senate Race
- John Hickenlooper -700
- Cory Gardner +400
Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) is poised to beat incumbent Cory Garner (R) by a decisive 14-point margin. After the 2016 election, Colorado shifted to the left. Last quarter, Hickenlooper raised $22 million last quarter compared to Gardner’s $7 million.
A prominent Democratic group, Senate Majority PAC, canceled its final rounds of TV campaign ads, signaling the anticipation of a comfortable victory for Hickenlooper.
Iowa Senate Race
- Joni Ernst -140
- Theresa Greenfield +100
The stakes are high in Iowa, as it is the second most expensive Senate race in US history.
While Greenfield (D) is +100 in the odds, she leads slightly in the polls. Ernst (R) won her seat in 2014 and was considered a political hot-shot and possible vice-presidential pick for the Republicans.
Consider taking the +100 on Greenfield for payouts that will equal the amount risked.
Kansas Senate Race
- Roger Marshall -400
- Barbara Bollier +250
Kansas has not unseated a Republican since 1932, and this probably won’t change in 2020 as Roger Marshall (R) holds a slight lead against Barbara Bollier (D), who switched parties citing the states growing “right-wing extremism.”
Kentucky Senate Race
- Mitch McConnell -1300
- Amy McGrath +625
Mitch McConnell (R) holds a strong lead against Amy McGrath (D). Kentucky, historically Republican, also aligns closely with the Trump Administration. Given McConnell’s legacy in Washington, he is poised as a firm favorite.
Maine Senate Race
- Sara Gideon -350
- Susan Collins +225
Maine is another hotly contested Senate race with big money pouring in from both sides. A recent poll shows Sarah Gideon (D) holding a 7-point lead over five-term incumbent Susan Collins (R).
Michigan Senate Race
- Gary Peters -300
- John James +200
Michigan is an incredibly important race for control of the Senate. Incumbent Gary Peters (R) needs to win against up-and-coming Republican star, John James.
John James, a young military veteran and prolific businessman, is running a tight race. He backs Trump and simultaneously campaigns on a non-partisan platform.
Montana Senate Race
- Steve Daines *Locked
- Steve Bullock +130
*Action is currently locked, typically due to the sportsbook getting a flood of action on one candidate and waiting for the money to balance out on both sides before reactivating the betting line.
Montana features a tight race, with competing polls showing 2-point leads for both candidates. Senator Daines (R) looks to unseat Governor Steve Bullock (D).
North Carolina Senate Race
- Cal Cunningham -160
- Thom Tillis +120
- is the most expensive senate race in history of the US and a keenly contested one as well. Cal Cunningham (D) holds a slight lead over incumbent Thom Tillis (R), despite a recent sex scandal.
Tillis backs the Trump administration and the confirmation of SCOTUS nominee Amy Coney Barret.
South Carolina Senate Race
- Lindsey Graham -260
- Jaime Harrison +175
We could not forget old Lindsey Graham and his declining reelection odds. In a state that the GOP felt they had stable control over, Jamie Harrison (D) has raised outstanding amounts for his campaign and turns a historically Republican state into a contested one in 2020.
The GOP could be in peril come Nov. 3. These final weeks are crucial for the DNC if they intend to gain control of both branches of government.