2020 Election Odds: Pete Buttigieg and Elizabeth Warren are rising in the polls but does either offer betting value?
There are two 2020 Democrats on the rise in the polls, but is now the time to place a bet?
Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Massachusett Senator Elizabeth Warren have been on the upswing in May and have shot up in the latest polling for the 2020 Democratic nomination.
But how does their most recent polling compare to the betting odds for the 2020 presidential election?
We’ll be using RealClearPolitics for the latest aggregate polling data for both Buttigieg and Warren to see how the two rising Democrats poll on a national level.
We’ll be taking the odds from the top 3 sportsbooks in the US — Bovada, BetOnline, and MyBookie — for the 2020 presidential election odds and seeing where the best value is at a month prior to the first Democratic debates next month.
Let’s start with Mayor Pete.
Pete Buttigieg – 2020 presidential election betting odds and polling data
- Bovada +1200 (7.69%)
- BetOnline +1400 (6.67%)
- MyBookie +2000 (4.76%)
According to RCP, Buttigieg currently sits at 6.6% aggregate on the national level. Currently, the public money bet at Bovada has driven down his price, and he no longer has value at that specific site, giving us a difference of -1.09 percent when the odds are converted to an implied probability.
You also lose -0.07% in value by placing a wager at BetOnline, which is certainly better than the former but the sportsbook you want to use currently for a bet today on Buttigieg has to be MyBookie, who lists his odds with a difference in the value of +1.84% compared to the latest national polling.
But how does the Senator from Massachusetts fair?
Elizabeth Warren – 2020 presidential election betting odds
- Bovada +2200 (4.35%)
- BetOnline +2500 (3.85%)
- MyBookie +1600 (5.88%)
Warren has arguably the biggest difference out of any candidate in the 2020 Democratic field when it comes to average polling and the odds currently being displayed by the online sportsbooks.
She has seen a resurgence in her RCP polling average over the past couple weeks and is now polling 9.6% at the national, which puts her in 3rd place behind Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.
And because her surge in the 2020 polls is a recent revelation, the public money and the bookmakers have not had time to react.
In fact, you’ll get amazing value on Warren to win the 2020 election at any of our recommended betting sites. Bovada and MyBookie give you roughly 4-5% in value but the clear winner is BetOnline, who comes out ahead with a difference of +5.75% when nationally polling is stacked up against the odds.
Expect to see both these 2020 candidates continue to see their odds go up in the next month, which means the return on investment will diminish as we get closer to June 26, 27 — the first of the Democratic primary debates.