Political News Blog Political News Blog 2020 odds analysis: Does Andrew Yang have a chance to become president?
Andrew Yang signing

2020 odds analysis: Does Andrew Yang have a chance to become president?

Does Andrew Yang have a chance to win the Democratic nomination and become the next President of the United States?

You bet he can.

To start, Yang has already qualified with 65,000 individual donations that were needed for the first Democratic presidential debate, which today was announced by NBC to take place at the Adrienne Arsht Center for the Performing Arts in downtown Miami on June 26 and 27.

Ever since his appearance on the Joe Rogan podcast, Yang has turned his presidential campaign into mainstream success thanks to his unique platform of Universal Basic Income (UBI) — which would give every individual adult in the US a $1,000 per month income from a VAT directed to curb the job loss expected from automation.

Heck, he’s even got people chanting and cheering “PowerPoint! PowerPoint! PowerPoint!” at rallies after promising to be the first president to use transparent and accurate statistics by using the Microsoft slideshow presentation software as part of the annual State of the Union address at the House Chambers in Washington DC.

But can Yang win the…

  • Democratic primary?
  • Presidential election?

Well, to get an accurate picture of what the chances are for #YangGang2020, we’ll turn to the oddsmakers since when there’s money on the line, there’s no tool that’s better than a sportsbook at accurate giving us how likely or unlikely something is to happen.

And for all of the betting odds for Yang’s 2020 campaign, we’ll be using the ones posted currently at Bovada Sportsbook.

Andrew Yang’s chances of winning the 2020 Democratic nomination

*As of May 10, 2019

  1. Joe Biden +225
  2. Bernie Sanders +325
  3. Pete Buttigieg +500
  4. Kamala Harris +600
  5. Elizabeth Warren +1200
  6. Andrew Yang +1400
  7. Beto O’Rourke +1600
  8. Cory Booker +2500
  9. Tulsi Gabbard +2500
  10. Amy Klobuchar +3300
  11. Hillary Clinton +4000
  12. Kirsten Gillibrand +6600
  13. Julian Castro +8000
  14. Michelle Obama +8000
  15. Oprah Winfrey +8000
  16. Tom Steyer +10000
  17. Andrew Cuomo +10000

Andrew Yang currently sits in 6th place among the candidates who are most likely to receive the presidential nomination Democratic Party, which is awarded to the winner from the primary election season.

His odds are +1400 which means his chances of winning are currently 6.67% (based on implied probability). For Vice President Joe Biden is currently the favorite at +225, which puts his chances at 30.77% to be the party’s nominee.

Andrew Yang’s Presidential Odds for 2020

*As of May 10, 2019

  1. Donald Trump +120
  2. Joe Biden +450
  3. Bernie Sanders +550
  4. Pete Buttigieg +1000
  5. Kamala Harris +1100
  6. Andrew Yang +2000
  7. Beto O’Rourke +2000
  8. Elizabeth Warren +2000
  9. Amy Klobuchar +5000
  10. Tulsi Gabbard +5000
  11. Cory Booker +5500
  12. Kirsten Gillibrand +6600
  13. Mike Pence +6600
  14. Nikki Haley +6600
  15. Bill Gates +10000
  16. Hillary Clinton +10000
  17. Howard Schultz +10000
  18. John Hickenlooper +10000
  19. John Kasich +10000
  20. Julian Castro +10000
  21. Michael Avenatti +10000
  22. Michelle Obama +10000
  23. Mitt Romney +10000
  24. Oprah Winfrey +10000
  25. Sherrod Brown +10000
  26. Eric Garcetti +12500
  27. Joe Kennedy III +12500
  28. Marco Rubio +12500
  29. Martin O’Malley +12500
  30. Orrin Hatch +12500
  31. Paul Ryan +12500
  32. Rahm Emanuel +12500
  33. Tom Wolf +12500
  34. Bob Iger +15000
  35. Andrew Cuomo +15000
  36. Ben Shapiro +15000
  37. Chris Murphy +15000
  38. Mark Cuban +15000
  39. Mitch Landrieu +15000
  40. Rand Paul +15000
  41. Tammy Duckworth +15000
  42. Ted Cruz +15000
  43. Terry McAuliffe +15000
  44. Tim Kaine +15000
  45. Tom Steyer +15000
  46. Trey Gowdy +15000
  47. Jeb Bush +20000
  48. Mark Zuckerberg +20000
  49. Chelsea Clinton +100000
  50. Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson +100000
  51. George Clooney +100000
  52. Ivanka Trump +100000
  53. Joe Rogan +100000
  54. Kanye West +100000
  55. Leonardo DiCaprio +100000
  56. Tom Brady +100000
  57. Will Smith +100000

When looking at the much longer list of potential candidates to win the 2020 presidential election, Andrew Yang is impressively tried for 6th place as well alongside former Rep. Beto O’Rourke and Sen. Elizabeth Warren — not bad for someone who was a no name just a year ago.

So, what are Yang’s chances of winning the presidency during the general election? After all, he’ll likely have to go against President Donald Trump, the incumbent Republican.

Yang’s presidential odds currently are listed at +2000, so when converting to an implied probability, we can see that the oddsmakers believe that he currently has a 4.76% chance of becoming the next President of the United States.

Trump, who is currently the POTUS, unsurprisingly is the favorite since his path toward re-election is viewed by the oddsmakers to be the one of least resistance. His odds are posted at +120, which gives him a 45.45% chance to win the election next November.

While those may seem like they are wide margins — it’s really not.

In fact, Trump’s odds were roughly around +5000 before a single Republican debate was held, which means he had a 1.96% chance of becoming POTUS.

Andrew Yang’s chances are much greater than Trump’s were at this time back in 2015.

And if you’re still doubting his odds of potentially sitting in the Oval Office, then just wait until he gets on the stage next month with all of the other Democrats.

After all, Yang is a nationally-recognized debate champion.

And once he gets the national spotlight, I predict his chances will skyrocket — meaning you’ll want to place your bet before the value is gone and he potentially takes the lead as the favorite to win either the party nomination, the presidency, or both.

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