How The Unpredictable 2016 Presidential Debates Will Affect Political Betting Odds
The upcoming presidential debate scheduled to take place on Monday, September 26th is expected to be one of the most watched events on television to ever take place. Networks predicted that close to 100 million people are expected to watch the 90 minute debate between democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and republican presidential nominee Donald Trump.
Speculation and predictions abound concerning what we can expect to see during that 90 minute debate, with most analysts conceding to the concept that it is entirely unpredictable at best.
In fact, the entire presidential race has become unpredictable, with polls tightening as we approach the debates. Donald Trump as the presidential nominee for the Republican Party was at one time considered a laughable idea. Then it happened.
The idea that Trump would come even remotely close to Clinton in the polls was laughable. Now its happened. Clearly most people underestimated Trump and the impact he would have on those voters who are displeased with the state of affairs in the nation.
The unpredictability concerning the debate on Monday night does not only apply to how the candidates will interact, but also applies to how the voters will respond to their performances.
In addition to being unpredictable, the debate will also make history in several ways. First, it will be the first time that a female candidate will participate in the presidential nominee debate. Secondly, Trump and Clinton are the least liked presidential candidates in history.
Polls show that 58% of voters dislike Trump, and 55% of voters dislike Clinton. Lastly, the debate that takes place on Monday, September 26th is expected to shatter viewership records.
Between the party conventions held this summer and the first debate in September, the betting odds for which part will prevail have shifted dramatically. Immediately following party conventions, the democrats were favored to win the election with odds set at -450, with the republican underdogs carrying odds set at +325.
The odds as of September 22 indicate a shift taking place. The democrats sill are the favored party, however their odds have dropped to -215, while the republican odds have improved to a +175. The odds are responding to the tightening of the polls and the momentum of the campaigns.
While Clinton is certainly the more experienced candidate who is a better debater hands down, Trump is the candidate whose campaign has growing momentum at the moment. He efficiently and systematically overtook 15 republican candidates in the primary with his unpredictable and inconsistent messages, and combative strategy.
Though he lost a considerable number of conservatives along the way with his polarizing effect on the race, his supporters believe he can do pick off Clinton the same way he did his own party competitors.
It is anyone’s guess which Trump personality will appear at the debates. We have seen a variety of personas from the TV personality, ranging from combative attack dog to presidential-ish. His Americanism versus globalism is appealing to republicans, and keeps him in their favor despite his other shortcomings.
Clinton’s expected demeanor is much more predictable, and will likely radiate a prepared and experienced candidate with sensible messages and cool head. However, the closing of the poll numbers does speak to the suggestion that she is perceived as promising more of the same as an extension of the Obama presidency, and that her poor ratings on honesty and trustworthiness are giving voters pause.
A misstep by either candidate, or even a perceived misstep could shake the poll numbers and the betting odds even more. One thing that is a sure bet is that both candidates and their campaign advisors are strategizing over the best way to interact with their competitor.
Will Trump succumb to the expectations of behaving presidential and allow himself to be handled into delivering a respectable performance, or will he bring his unprecedented shtick with him and give us all a show to remember?
Will Clinton modify her performance to match Trump’s appealing unpredictability through a combative approach? Will voters respond the way the candidates are hoping they will? Its anyone’s guess.
While the presidential betting odds may still experience some shifting and shaking through this next round of debates, there are some intriguing props bets that will be available for the debates.
The first debate already has some prop lines posted, including betting options for the color of the candidates’ jackets, betting on whether or not Trump will call Clinton a liar, and will the debate’s Nielsen rating exceed that of Monday night football.