St. Patrick’s Day Odds Favor Biden, But Voter Luck Can’t Beat Coronavirus
For the record, the image of Joe Biden wafting in a mix of St. Patrick’s Day luck and people supporting him is from years ago, but the odds favor it being a glimpse of what’s to come following today’s primaries.
That’s right. The Democratic National Committee and Tom Perez—sitting chair and man living up to his title and nothing more—are pushing ahead with primaries in Arizona, Florida, and Illinois on Tuesday, March 17, despite strong recommendations from the CDC two days ago to cancel all events of 50 or more people nationwide.
The Ohio Primary was postponed Monday night due to the risk of spreading COVID-19, which, at the time of writing, has 5,871 confirmed cases and killed 99 people in the United States, according to Worldometers. The worldwide toll is now 196,770 confirmed cases and 7,927 deaths from the coronavirus.
Governor Mike DeWine signed an executive order to overrule a judge that blocked requests to cancel the primaries earlier in the evening.
— Presidential Election Odds (@presidentodds) March 17, 2020
Coronavirus Causes Chaos During March 17 Primaries
In the three states holding March 17 Democratic primary elections, voting so far—to put it lightly—has been a catastrophe, and voter turnout is projected to be extremely low due to fears of spreading the viral disease in large gatherings. Here are the latest updates from the three states who chose to not postpone today’s primaries:
- Arizona Primary: An Arizona election official said Friday “I’m sorry, I can’t do this,” regarding safety preparations for the state’s Tuesday primary. State officials proceeded to fight in court over mail-in ballots and 78 poll locations across the state have told poll workers to stay home.
- Florida Primary: Several locations in Florida are reporting a high number of poll workers not showing up. A federal judge said it is “difficult or impossible” for some Floridians to vote in Tuesday’s primary. Voting rights activists said they plan to sue.
- Illinois Primary: Polls are turning away voters, not because of the coronavirus, but because poll workers were not given the necessary equipment to hold an election. The state is now scrambling to find election judges for Election Day after 850 judges said they were not showing up.
Who Survives St. Patrick’s Day Coronavirus Catastrophe?
Well, with all that being said, the state primary betting odds heavily favor former Vice President Joe Biden winning the three states holding elections on Tuesday, March 17.
Joe Biden’s odds indicate he’ll easily sweep all three states on St. Patrick’s Day, opening as the betting favorite to win the Arizona, Florida, and Illinois primaries from registered voters who are willing to risk spreading the coronavirus.
Based on the implied probability (without juice) from 2020 political betting odds, Biden, at -5000 odds, has a 96% chance to win Arizona and Illinois. In Florida, the former VP is listed at -10000 odds, giving him about a 98% chance.
The betting odds for Bernie Sanders—at +1200 and +1600, respectively—look bleak on St. Patrick’s Day, ranging from a 2% to 4% chance in each Democratic primary.
There’s no way to know for sure what the DNC will do with the March 17 results, but the 2020 Democratic presidential nominee odds continue to favor the former VP following his big wins on Super Tuesday and Super Tuesday 2: Biden Boogaloo.
In addition to the Democratic primary and nominee odds below, you can also find the latest Vice President betting odds as well as a spread of 2020 political prop bets available for St. Patrick’s Day—just don’t venture out and spread the coronavirus today or any other day for the foreseeable future.
Odds To Win March 17 Democratic Primaries
Arizona Democratic Primary Odds
- Joe Biden -5000
- Bernie Sanders +1200
*The winner of the largest share of the popular vote in the 2020 Arizona Democratic Presidential Primary will be declared the winner.
Florida Democratic Primary Odds
- Joe Biden -10000
- Bernie Sanders +1600
*The winner of the largest share of the popular vote in the 2020 Florida Democratic Presidential Primary will be declared the winner.
Illinois Democratic Primary Odds
- Joe Biden -5000
- Bernie Sanders +1200
*The winner of the largest share of the popular vote in the 2020 Illinois Democratic Presidential Primary will be declared the winner.
2020 Democratic Nominee Odds & Prop Bets
Odds To Win 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination
- Joe Biden -1500
- Hillary Clinton +1000
- Bernie Sanders +2000
- Michelle Obama +4500
- Tulsi Gabbard +20000
Who Will Joe Biden Choose To Be His Vice Presidential Running Mate?
- Amy Klobuchar +160
- Kamala Harris +160
- Stacey Abrams +500
- Elizabeth Warren +950
- Michelle Obama +2000
- Tammy Duckworth +2000
- Catherine Cortez Masto +2500
- Michelle Lujan Grisham +3000
- Pete Buttigieg +5000
Who Will Bernie Sanders Choose To Be His Vice Presidential Running Mate?
- Stacey Abrams +225
- Nina Turner +300
- Kamala Harris +500
- Tulsi Gabbard +500
- Tammy Baldwin +550
- Julián Castro +2000
Will Bernie Sanders Drop Out Of The Presidential Race Before March 20th?
- Yes +210
- No -290
*Any wagers placed on the same day news is made public knowledge will be deemed void. Bookmanager’s decision is final.
Will The Democrats Have A Brokered Convention In 2020?
- Yes +550
- No -1000
*Total votes tabulated by the Federal Election Commission for all states and the District of Columbia.
Which Party Will Win The Popular Vote In The 2020 Presidential Election?
- Democrats -280
- Republicans +205