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Trump-Mueller Prop Bets: Odds against Mueller confirming ‘collusion’ or ‘obstruction’ during testimony

Former Special Counsel Robert Mueller will testify before Congress tomorrow regarding his probe into possible Russian collusion with President Donald Trump as well as obstruction of justice allegations.

Starting at 8:30 am ET, Congress will question Mueller on the findings from the report. From the expected questioning, oddsmakers at Bovada are taking action on Mueller’s answers, among other prop bets related to the testimony.

The Mueller Report, Mueller’s original 448-page documentation of his investigation into Russian interference with the 2016 presidential election, was released April 18, 2019.

Under his own accord, Mueller promises not to stray from his original investigation report. Despite this, Congress subpoenaed Mueller in late-June to testify on his findings and was scheduled to appear on July 17 before being rescheduled to July 24.

The Department of Justice also sent Mueller a letter stressing “that there should be no testimony concerning the redacted portions of the public version of your report, which may not be disclosed because of applicable laws, court rules and orders.”

Because of this, it is not likely Mueller will confirm Congress’s big question: Did Trump collude with Russia? Unsurprisingly, Bovada gives -550 odds on him not confirming these allegations.

Will Mueller confirm collusion between the Trump Campaign and Russia?

  • No -550
  • Yes +325

Another big question expected from Congress is if Trump obstructed justice. Again, oddsmakers do not anticipate this from Mueller, only giving his affirmation +215 odds.

Will Mueller confirm that Trump obstructed justice?

  • No -330
  • Yes +215

Other prop bets available on Bovada pertain to events outside of the testimony.

In what may be the most entertaining bet to follow throughout the proceedings, Bovada predicts that Trump will tweet over 12.5 times at -110. Trump’s most recent tweet regarding Mueller is a quote from FoxBusiness’s Trish Regan.

How many times will @RealDonaldTrump tweet on July 24, 2019?

  • Under 12.5 -130
  • Over 12.5 -110

If Mueller’s testimony goes the way Democrats hope, there is an expectation that the Party will jump-start impeachment proceedings. But since the odds favor Mueller not adding anything new, the odds are against the House beginning impeachment proceedings by December at -500 for “No.”

Rep. Nancy Pelosi doesn’t want to impeach Trump while the President himself claims that only 11% of the public want him impeached.

 

It is unclear which poll the President was referring to in his tweet, but a June poll from NBC News/Wall Street Journal shows 48% of Americans believe Congress should not hold impeachment hearings while 27% of Americans believe there is enough evidence to impeach Trump.

Will the House begin impeachment proceedings by December 31, 2019?

  • No -500
  • Yes +300

To watch Mueller’s testimony tomorrow, tune into CBSN for live coverage beginning at 7 a.m. ET in Washington, DC. The House Judiciary Committee hearing is set for 8:30 a.m. ET followed by the House Intelligence Committee hearing at 12 p.m. ET.

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