Trump, Sanders Lead Fourth Quarter Fundraising So Far
When it comes to individual Americans placing their “bets” who they want to win in 2020, two candidates have risen to the top of the pack.
The fourth-quarter fundraising deadline was Tues., Dec. 31, 2019, and Republican incumbent President Donald Trump and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders lead the field so far.
Several campaigns, such as the ones for former Vice President Joe Biden and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, have yet to release their donation totals, but here’s a breakdown of the fourth quarter fundraising and how it’ll impact the betting odds for the 2020 presidential election.
Despite becoming the third President in U.S. history to be impeached by the House—and the first-ever while up for reelection—Trump raised $46 million in the fourth quarter, which is the most brought in over three months by any candidate, Republican or Democrat, during the 2020 cycle.
Likewise, Trump’s reelection odds currently show him leading all candidates and is listed as the overall betting favorite at -120 odds, which indicates he has an approximately 54.55% chance to win back the White House.
Trump is unlikely to be convicted and removed from office by the Senate or face any serious challengers in the Republican primary. However, the Democratic nomination betting odds show a much more uncertain picture.
But even though the outcome is cloudier, the Sanders campaign is becoming a fundraising force to be reckoned with, amassing $34.5 million for his 2020 bid in the final three months of 2019.
Sanders’ totals are the most for any Democratic presidential candidate during the primary season. In addition, his totals—which surpassed five million individual donations —sets his campaign up for some major ad buys in the early primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina.
As a result, expect to see Sanders’ betting odds spike if he finishes on top once the rest of the Democratic field has released its fourth-quarter totals.
When looking at the chances of the Democrats vying for the presidency, Sanders only trails Biden with +800 odds, which is roughly an 11.11% implied probability of winning the nomination and beating Trump in the general election.
For comparison, Biden is currently the Democratic favorite with +500 odds, a 16.67% chance to win on Nov. 3, 2020.
The campaigns for Pete Buttigieg, who is now the former mayor of South Bend, Indiana and entrepreneur Andrew Yang have also released their fourth-quarter totals.
Buttigieg brought in $24.7 million during the last three months of 2019, which eclipses his $19.2 million total from the third-quarter and falls just shy of his biggest haul of nearly $25 million during the second quarter.
Yang had his strongest fundraising quarter thus far with $16.5 million raised over the last three months. His fourth-quarter numbers surpass the $10 million he raised in the previous three months and Yang’s campaign has yet to any decrease in donations accepted since the start of the primary season.
The odds for Buttigieg currently placed him fifth among all candidates with +1000 odds, which equates to a 9.09% chance, while Yang’s 2020 odds show him in the seventh position with +2000 odds, a 4.76% chance.
The rest of the 2020 campaigns are expected to release their fourth-quarter fundraising totals in the coming days. Once those numbers are released, expect to see some major changes on the odds board.
2020 Presidential Election Odds
Via BetOnline Sportsbook – Jan. 2, 2020
- Donald Trump -120
- Joe Biden +500
- Bernie Sanders +800
- Elizabeth Warren +1000
- Pete Buttigieg +1000
- Michael Bloomberg +1400
- Andrew Yang +2000
- Hillary Clinton +3300
- Amy Klobuchar +4000
- Mike Pence +6600
- Tulsi Gabbard +8000
- Cory Booker +15000
- Deval Patrick +15000
- Tom Steyer +25000