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Odds Favor Bernie Sanders To Win 12 Of 14 Super Tuesday Primary States

Following last night’s uneventful South Carolina Democratic debate, there has been little to no change across the board in regards to the 2020 election odds.

After winning the most votes in three consecutive early primary states, Bernie Sanders is the clear favorite to win the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination.

The Vermont senator currently has -110 odds ($1.10 bet wins $1) at BetOnline sportsbook, giving him a 52.38% implied probability of becoming the eventual Democratic Party nominee.

According to the South Carolina primary betting odds, Joe Biden remains favored to slow Sanders’ momentum and win the fourth early primary state taking place Sat., Feb. 29.

Biden is currently listed at -225 odds ($2.25 bet wins $1), giving the former Vice President a 69.23% chance of winning the most votes in the Palmetto State.

Regardless of who wins South Carolina this weekend, each candidate will have no time to rest on their laurels because one-third of the total delegates for the Democratic nomination is up for grabs next Tuesday.

The Super Tuesday Democratic primary will be held on Tues., Mar. 3, and features primary elections in 15 U.S. jurisdictions, including 14 states—Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia—and the American Samoa caucuses. Also, the Democrats Abroad primary begins on Mar. 3 and ends on Mar. 10.

A total of 1,344 delegates could be awarded, and the current Super Tuesday betting odds favor Bernie Sanders winning 12 of the 14 states as well as both the American Samoa caucuses and the Democrats Abroad primary.

2020 Super Tuesday Democratic Primary Odds

To help with your wagers and compare odds at BetOnline sportsbook, we’ve included the FiveThirtyEight Super Tuesday forecast, which predicts a candidates’ chances to win based on their polling data. The 538 forecasts were last updated at 10:30 am ET on Feb. 26, 2020.

Sanders’ betting odds for Super Tuesday favor him winning 12 of the 14 state primary elections. However, 538 projects him to win 13 of the 14 states as well as the contest held by American Samoa and Democrats abroad.

Biden’s odds indicate he’s the betting favorite to win two states—Alabama and Arkansas—but 538 predicts the former VP will only win Alabama on Super Tuesday.

Interestingly, it appears neither BetOnline nor 538 predicts Mike Bloomberg will win any Super Tuesday states. Bloomberg’s odds are currently not favored in any primary despite spending over half a billion dollars on targetted campaign advertisements as of Feb. 24.

Here you’ll see which Democratic candidate is favored to win each state or jurisdiction on Super Tuesday with the state-by-state betting odds immediately following. A political prop bet from BetOnline for “how many Super Tuesday primary elections Sanders will win” has also been included.

Super Tuesday Odds via BetOnline

Mar. 3 Odds

  • Alabama: Biden -225 (69.23%)
    • 538: Biden 61% chance
  • Arkansas: Biden -110 (52.38%)
    • 538: Sanders 38% chance
  • California: Sanders -2000 (95.24%)
    • 538: Sanders 89% chance
  • Colorado: Sanders -1250 (92.59%)
    • 538: Sanders 83% chance
  • Maine: Sanders -1000 (90.91%)
    • 538: Sanders 67% chance
  • Massachusetts: Sanders -300 (75.00%)
    • 538: Sanders 58% chance
  • Minnesota: Sanders -120 (54.55%)
    • 538: Klobuchar/Sanders 47% chance
  • North Carolina: Sanders -200 (66.67%)
    • 538: Sanders 43% chance
  • Oklahoma: Sanders -175 (63.64%)
    • 538: Sanders 35% chance
  • Tennessee: Sanders -140 (58.33%)
    • 538: Biden/Sanders 39% chance
  • Texas: Sanders -500 (83.33%)
    • 538: Sanders 52% chance
  • Utah: Sanders -2000 (95.24%)
    • 538: Sanders 87% chance
  • Vermont: Sanders -10000 (99.01%)
    • 538: Sanders >99% chance
  • Virginia: Sanders -300 (75.00%)
    • 538: Sanders 48% chance
  • American Samoa: Odds (N/A)
    • 538: Sanders 40% chance

March 3-10 Odds

  • Democrats Abroad: Sanders -1250
    • 538: Sanders 68% chance

Super Tuesday Odds: State-by-State

Alabama Primary Odds

  • Joe Biden -225
  • Bernie Sanders +225
  • Michael Bloomberg +1200
  • Elizabeth Warren +2500
  • Pete Buttigieg +2500
  • Amy Klobuchar +3300
  • Tom Steyer +5000

Arkansas Primary Odds

  • Joe Biden -110
  • Bernie Sanders +140
  • Michael Bloomberg +550
  • Pete Buttigieg +1600
  • Elizabeth Warren +4000
  • Amy Klobuchar +5000

California Primary Odds

  • Bernie Sanders -2000
  • Field +800

Colorado Primary Odds

  • Bernie Sanders -1250
  • Field +600

Maine Primary Odds

  • Bernie Sanders -1000
  • Field +500

Massachusetts Primary Odds

  • Bernie Sanders -300
  • Field +200

Minnesota Primary Odds

  • Bernie Sanders -120
  • Amy Klobuchar +125
  • Joe Biden +2000
  • Michael Bloomberg +2000
  • Elizabeth Warren +2500
  • Pete Buttigieg +2500
  • Tulsi Gabbard +3300
  • Tom Steyer +5000

North Carolina Primary Odds

  • Bernie Sanders -200
  • Field +110

Oklahoma Primary Odds

  • Bernie Sanders -175
  • Field +120

Tennessee Primary Odds

  • Bernie Sanders -140
  • Field +100

Texas Primary Odds

  • Bernie Sanders -500
  • Michael Bloomberg +1000
  • Elizabeth Warren +4000
  • Pete Buttigieg +4000
  • Amy Klobuchar +5000

Utah Primary Odds

  • Bernie Sanders -2000
  • Field +800

Vermont Primary Odds

  • Bernie Sanders -10000
  • Field +2500

Virginia Primary Odds

  • Bernie Sanders -300
  • Joe Biden +450
  • Michael Bloomberg +500
  • Elizabeth Warren +3300
  • Amy Klobuchar +5000
  • Pete Buttigieg +2000
  • Tulsi Gabbard +6600

American Samoa Caucus Odds

  • Odds (N/A)

Democrats Abroad Primary Odds

  • Bernie Sanders -1250
  • Field +600

Super Tuesday Prop Bets

Last but not least, BetOnline has released a proposition on exactly how many primary elections Bernie Sanders will win on Super Tuesday.

Currently, the prop odds favor Sanders at +400 ($1 bet wins $4) to win either 10 or 11 primaries on Super Tuesday, which gives either outcome a 20% implied probability.

Sanders winning 12 or 13 primaries is the next most likely outcome, receiving +500 odds ($1 bet wins $5) and a roughly 16.67% chance for each happening.

As far as sweeping Super Tuesday goes, the odds of Sanders winning all 15 primaries held on Mar. 3 (14 states plus American Samoa) are listed at +1800 ($1 bet wins $18), giving the Vermont senator a 5.26% chance to run the table and win every primary election held on Super Tuesday.

How many primary elections will Bernie Sanders win on Super Tuesday?

Super Tuesday Props via BetOnline

  • Win 10 primary elections +400
  • Win 11 primary elections +400
  • Win 12 primary elections +500
  • Win 13 primary elections +500
  • Win 8 primary elections +600
  • Win 9 primary elections +600
  • Win 14 primary elections +800
  • Win 7 primary elections +1400
  • Win all 15 Super Tuesday primary elections +1800
  • Win 6 primary elections +4000
  • Win 3 primary elections +25000
  • Win 4 primary elections +25000
  • Win 5 primary elections +25000
  • Win 1 primary elections +50000
  • Win 2 primary elections +50000
  • Win 0 primary elections +50000

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