How Will the Anti-Establishment Wins in New Hampshire Affect Betting Odds?
Tuesday night the voters of New Hampshire sent a clear message that they are seeking candidates that are not a part of the well oiled Washington machine and business as usual. Voters from both sides of the fence rejected establishment candidates and instead went with the revolutionary messages offered by Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders.
Both of the NH primary winners were originally considered less than formidable contenders to their opponents, and both have proven those assumptions to be completely incorrect. This election is redefining politics in America and is reflecting a cry from the American people for change.
Those of you anxious to bet on the South Carolina primary and review the betting odds and how they’ve changed after Tuesday’s results in New Hampshire will notice that most of the sportsbooks have taken down their lines to adjust the odds accordingly.
Not only will NH’s primary affect the odds for the upcoming South Carolina primary, but it will also demand adjustments in the betting odds for who will win the party nominations and the presidency. Therefore, those lines have been taken down as well for adjustments by the oddsmakers.
For the first time since the campaign circus began, Clinton has fallen below Bernie Sanders in favor to win the Democrat nomination. It was expected that Sanders would be well received in New Hampshire based on the odds since he is currently a Vermont senator, but the gravity of his unexpected large lead cannot be ignored.
Previously we saw Clinton at even odds to win the Democratic nomination, and many professional political analysts still believe that she will pull it off, despite her loss in New Hampshire by more than 20 percentage points.
However, some of those sportsbooks that still have their presidential lines up reflect the odds favoring Sanders at this point, while others are not quite as ready to throw in the towel on Clinton until further analysis of the polls and the NH results is completed. National polls still show Clinton with a slight lead over Sanders of 2-3 points depending on which poll you are looking at.
The odds makers will have to decide if Clinton is still favored to win, albeit by a much smaller margin. This increased risk bodes well for the sportsbooks, and for those seeking a hefty payout from their presidential betting action.
It is questionable whether any of the republican candidates will be able to overtake Trump’s towering lead. Though he was expected to do well in moderate New Hampshire, the distance between Trump’s numbers and Kasich’s second place win reflect an over performance by Trump, which could mean that he is favored more by conservatives than originally predicted.
This could result in a stronger performance in more traditionally conservative states such as South Carolina. Kasich was also expected to perform well in New Hampshire as a moderate. Cruz is expected to perform better in right leaning South Carolina than he did in New Hampshire, but will have to really fight to recover from the Carson accusations and a third place finish in NH.
Cruz still follows Trump in second place in most national polls, however, the betting odds to win the republican primary typically place him lower on the list at this point.
The odds makers are likely hoping that anyone dropping out will do so sooner rather than later as new betting odds are created for the rest of the election events. Chris Christie had a disappointing night in New Hampshire, and announced that he was returning home to contemplate his continuation in the race.
Other poor performers on the republican side include Dr. Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina. The candidates that will likely stay in the race include Trump, Cruz, Rubio, Bush and Kasich. It is a given that Clinton’s second place (and also last place) finish in New Hampshire will not affect her continuation in the race.
All of this information, careful analysis of the New Hampshire primary results, and day to day campaign trail progress all play in to the decisions of the odds makers and the betting odds for each primary, the party nominations and the presidential ticket.
We will continue to keep the presidential election odds in our guide updated to reflect the most current data. At this point, the presidential election is predictably unpredictable, which of course makes the betting action even more exciting.