Iowa Caucus Odds: Pete Buttigieg Re-Opens As Heavy Favorite Over Bernie Sanders
Two days after the Iowa Caucuses were initially held and following two batches of results released by the Iowa Democratic Party, oddsmakers have named a new favorite to win the first state of the 2020 Democratic presidential Primary.
Pete Buttigieg, the former South Bend mayor, has re-opened as the heavy favorite to win the Iowa Democratic Caucuses after Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders was overwhelmingly favored before voting began.
Here’s a look at the current Iowa Caucus betting odds at Bovada Sportsbook following the reported results from 71.44% of precincts.
2020 Iowa Democratic Caucus Betting Odds
Via Bovada – Feb. 5, 2020
- Pete Buttigieg -350 | 74.68%
- Bernie Sanders +250 | 25.32%
Pete Buttigieg’s betting odds are now listed at -350 ($350 bet wins $100) to win the Iowa Caucuses. With those odds, the South Bend mayor has an approximately 74.68% chance to win the first primary state.
Buttigieg was listed at +750 odds, 11.76% chance, before the Iowa Caucuses began, according to the political futures at Bovada. Before oddsmakers closed the betting line due to the delayed results, the South Bend mayor had fallen to +900, 10% implied probability.
As the only other candidate who has a reasonable shot at winning, Sanders’ odds are re-posted at +250 ($100 bet wins $250), which gives the favorite from two nights ago a roughly 25.32% chance to win the Iowa Caucuses.
Sanders was the overwhelming favorite at all online sportsbooks before any votes were cast. At Bovada, the Vermont Senator was listed at -290, 74.36% chance, at the open and closed at -350, a 77.78% probability of winning Iowa.
Who Will Win Iowa?
While Buttigieg may have slipped in the Iowa polls leading up to the caucuses, it appears his support more closely mirrors survey results from early in the winter when he was leading polling with support in the mid-20s for the Hawkeye State.
Additionally, the voting results so far show Sanders performing near the level of his most recent Iowa polling average of 23% on RealClearPolitics.
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren is performing pretty much on par with her polling. Still, the biggest surprise is the lack of support for former Vice President Joe Biden, who placed in the top two in the most recent Iowa polls. Biden is currently in fourth place and is projected not to receive a single delegate.
With 71.44% of precincts reporting, Buttigieg leads Sanders in the state delegate equivalent (SDE) count—419 (26.8%) to 394 (25.2%). The SDE decides the Iowa Caucus winner and is based on the caucus sites won from individual vote tallies, which then determine how many pledged delegates each candidate will receive for the Democratic presidential nomination.
However, it’s worth noting that Sanders is leading Buttigieg in the popular vote—32,772 to 31,458—at the time of writing. Even though the popular vote doesn’t determine a winner, we can see why the race is too close to call with more than a quarter of the results yet to be released.
Officials from the Iowa Democratic Party announced that more caucus results would be released Wednesday afternoon, but it’s unknown exactly how much of the vote tally will be reported.
Buttigieg holds the edge-edge right now, but it’s still too early to count out Sanders in Iowa, especially when there’s 28% of precincts remaining.
Whoever ends up winning Iowa will surely see an increase to their 2020 Democratic nominee odds. But for now, here are the results from the Iowa Caucuses at the time of writing.
2020 Iowa Caucus Results
*71.44% of precincts reporting (1,261 / 1,765) as of 1:30 pm ET on Feb. 5
Pete Buttigieg ‒ DEL: 11 | SDE: 419 (26.8%) | POP: 31,458
Bernie Sanders ‒ DEL: 11 | SDE: 394 (25.2%) | POP: 32,772
Elizabeth Warren ‒ DEL: 5 | SDE: 287 (18.4%) | POP: 25,816
Joe Biden ‒ DEL: 0 | SDE: 241 (15.4%) | POP: 16,545
Amy Klobuchar ‒ DEL: 0 | SDE: 197 (12.6%) | POP: 15,598
Andrew Yang ‒ DEL: 0 | SDE: 16 (1.0%) | POP: 1,301
Tom Steyer ‒ DEL: 0 | SDE: 5 (0.3%) | POP: 275
Tulsi Gabbard ‒ DEL: 0 | SDE: 0 (0.0%) | POP: 14
Michael Bloomberg ‒ DEL: 0 | SDE: 0 (0.0%) | POP: 6
Michael Bennet ‒ DEL: 0 | SDE: 0 (0.0%) | POP: 1
John Delaney ‒ DEL: 0 | SDE: 0 (0.0%) | POP: 0
Deval Patrick ‒ DEL: 0 | SDE: 0 (0.0%) | POP: 0
Uncommitted ‒ DEL: 0 | SDE: 0 (0.2%) | POP: 1,101
Other ‒ DEL: 0 | SDE: 0 (0.0%) | POP: 151