Political News Blog Political News Blog Trump’s trade war with China causes dip in his 2020 reelection odds
Trump shaking hands with China's leaders

Trump’s trade war with China causes dip in his 2020 reelection odds

President Donald Trump said China executed “one of the greatest thefts in the history of the world,” in regards to trade back in 2015. But could his trade war with the Chinese also be costing him a chance at reelection in 2020?

Earlier this month, BetOnline listed Trump’s 2020 election odds at -110. Today, they’ve dropped to +100, and it’s the first time his odds have dipped in 2019.

While Joe Walsh’s presidential run announcement likely didn’t alter Trump’s odds, the president’s trade war with China probably did.

Within the last couple of weeks, Beijing introduced $75 billion in new tariffs on US goods following Trump’s $300 billion in tariffs on Chinese imports.

Not to be outdone, Trump responded on Twitter by planning to raise the tariffs on a combined $550 billion of Chinese goods with varying tax rates.

 

 

 

These new tariffs will actually cost average Americans a pretty penny: $1,000 per year according to JP Morgan.

Not only is the trade war costing Americans pocket money; it’s costing some their whole livelihoods. American farmers are struggling to sell their soybeans, pork, and wheat as China is now looking at farms in Brazil and Canada for their agricultural needs.

The numbers from the American Farm Bureau are not promising: “For the first quarter of 2019, 2.5% of commercial real estate loans in agriculture were more than 30 days past due, up from 2.1% in the prior quarter and above the historical average of 2.1%. Similarly, 2.3% of non-real estate loans in agriculture held by commercial lenders were more than 30 days past due, up from 1.5% in the prior quarter and above the historical average of 1.7%.”

These numbers directly contradict Trump’s July tweet claiming that American farms were doing better than they had in the last 15 years.

The trade war’s effects can be felt on the stock market, too. Although Dow has bounced back some 200 points in the last 24 hours, the overall drop has gone from 27,359.16 on July 15 to 25,820.55 at the time of writing.

If Trump continues to cost his fiscally conservative supporters more money, he could lose support across the board and his odds will slip even more.

For his voters that wanted a savvy businessman in the White House to fix the economy, the market is starting to appear a bit shaky ahead of 2020. Below are the odds for Trump and all of the candidates receiving odds to win the presidency.

2020 Presidential Election Odds

Via BetOnline

  • Donald Trump +100
  • Joe Biden +500
  • Elizabeth Warren +500
  • Bernie Sanders +900
  • Kamala Harris +1600
  • Andrew Yang +1600
  • Pete Buttigieg +2500
  • Cory Booker +5000
  • Tulsi Gabbard +5000
  • Beto O’Rourke +8000
  • Mike Pence +10000
  • Amy Klobuchar +10000
  • Marianne Williamson +10000
  • Julián Castro +12500
  • Kirsten Gillibrand +15000
  • Tom Steyer +15000
  • Bill de Blasio +15000
  • Michael Bennet +15000
  • John Delaney +25000

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