Trump’s Removal From Office Odds Taken Down As Senate Impeachment Trial Nears End
You know something is a safe bet when even the political betting sites will no longer accept wagers on an outcome.
But this appears to be the case with President Donald Trump’s removal from office odds via the impeachment trial currently still being held in the U.S. Senate.
After Trump’s impeachment betting odds paid out back in December when the U.S. House of Representatives voted in favor, along party lines, of the two articles of impeachment—abuse of power and obstruction of Congress—oddsmakers put out new odds on whether the Senate would eventually convict the President of the charges brought forth.
Despite favorable odds given for Trump’s impeachment by the Democrat-majority House, the odds of the President getting convicted and removed from office by the Republican-controlled Senate were slim to none.
After Trump’s removal from office betting odds opened at -5000 ($5000 bet wins $100) for “No” and +2000 ($100 bet wins $2000) for “Yes” at BetOnline Sportsbook, the odds quickly shifted to -7500 for “No” and +2500 for “Yes” as his chances of getting convicted by a two-thirds majority vote in the Senate became even more of a longshot.
However, once the Senate impeachment trial got underway, only Bookmaker.eu kept odds on Trump’s removal up—but only for a short time.
As of Jan. 26, 2020, no political betting site would accept bets on whether the Senate acquits or convicts Trump since getting 67 votes, meaning 20 G.O.P. Senators would need to side with Democrats, became virtually impossible in the eyes of oddsmakers.
Here’s a look at the only remaining Trump’s impeachment odds before they were taken down while the Senate impeachment trial was still underway.
Will The Senate Remove President Trump From Office?
*Must be removed from office before May 15, 2020
Via Bookmaker.eu – From Jan. 25, 2020
- No -33233
- Yes +1592
It’s not every day that you see -33233 odds, but a $33,233 wager to win a measly $100 was the best that any sportsbook would give you a week ago. Even if the Senate shocked the world and convicted Trump, you would’ve only won $1,592 from a $100 bet.
When converted to a true probability, we can see that the Bookmaker.eu oddsmakers believed there was a 98.40% chance that Trump would not be removed from office via the impeachment trial, giving his conviction only a 1.60% chance.
How Many Senators Will Vote to Remove President Trump From Office?
Via Bookmaker.eu – From Jan. 25, 2020
- Over 47.5 Senators +292
- Under 47.5 Senators -400
An over/under on how many Senators would vote to remove Trump was also available at the same time but was removed last weekend due to a 53-47 vote becoming essentially a foregone conclusion to the President’s short-lived impeachment trial.
Odds for the 2020 presidential election have remained available for action throughout the entire process, and oddsmakers unanimously believe the impeachment trial has actually increased Trump’s probability of winning a second term.
According to BetOnline, Trump’s 2020 betting odds are currently listed at -130 ($130 bet wins $100), which gives the Republican incumbent a roughly 56.52% chance of getting reelected. Before the impeachment vote in December 2019, Trump was listed at +110, which gave him only a 47.62% implied probability.
Below is a look at the current odds for all the 2020 candidates. With the Senate impeachment trial all but D.O.A., it appears the Democrats couldn’t stump the Trump (yet again) and will need their eventual nominee to act fast and come up with a plan overcome the inevitable impeachment loss if they want a chance at dethroning Trump on Nov. 3, 2020.
2020 Presidential Election Odds
Via BetOnline Sportsbook – Jan. 31, 2020
- Donald Trump -130
- Bernie Sanders +400
- Joe Biden +600
- Michael Bloomberg +1000
- Andrew Yang +2000
- Elizabeth Warren +2000
- Pete Buttigieg +2500
- Hillary Clinton +5000
- Amy Klobuchar +8000
- Mike Pence +10000
- Tom Steyer +10000
- Tulsi Gabbard +10000
- Michelle Obama +12500
- Deval Patrick +15000